CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Doubtful a recall would go anywhere. But it would be hilarious if he gets reelected by a closer margin than expected and then recalled in 2023, everything just like Gray Davis.

I thought Newsom has the potential to be nearly as great as Jerry Brown, but he's not even close to it. Brown was one of the best governors ever.

Newsom is worse than Davis, but the state is too Democratic for him to lose.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Faulconer breaks $1mil raised as the recall goes over 1.3 million signatures. LA Times has a story about Democrats sensing which way things are going & getting out in front by seeking to DISAVOW.

Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist who has helped run campaigns for former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, said it’s accurate for the governor to brand the recall backers as highly partisan, or some as extremists. But he said that message is undercut when the left is voicing criticism too.

“I think a lot of rank-and-file Democrats see Gavin Newsom as a combination of Charlie Brown and Lucy, where he wants to kick the football but he pulls it out himself before he can do it,” Trujillo said.

This is it, I think. Gavin has undercut himself a lot over the past two years:
 - Signed AB5 so he didn’t piss off unions, and then stood by while it got gutted so he didn’t piss off the tech companies
 - Somehow managed to make restrictions both unjustifiably strict for some people at some times, which made business owners mad, and unjustifiably lenient for other people at others, which made the left mad
 - Has a pisspoor relationship with the legislature, hasn’t tried to seriously engage with them on any significant non-budgetary stuff, and seems chronically incapable of fixing this no matter how many staffing overhauls he tries

This is the problem with being chronically risk-averse because you want to run for President. If you never stick your neck out for anyone, nobody will stick their neck out for you. That’s what’s happening here.

If he was risk adverse, he could have stopped sending his kids to school and having indoor dining with anti single payer lobbyists during a pandemic.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

How many candidates do we think run? I'm guessing around 50, a lot fewer than the 135 of 2003. That's not counting Davis or write-ins.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There will be a million comparison to Arnold Schwarzenegger. Arnold was a much better candidate

He had higher name-id and a better image. Schwarzenegger was active in (GOP) politics including ballot measures.
Jenner is really untested.

Also: California is a much bluer state today than it was back in 2003. Partisanship is also through the roof.

And Ahnuld was a pretty moderate Republican.

What would happen if Jenner called her opponents "economic girlie men"?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, every Democratic governor not named Edmund Gerald Brown of the last 75 years has faced a recall election.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gavin changed the rules in 2019 to list your political party next to your name if you're being recalled ("Should Gavin Newsom, Democrat, be recalled from office?"). Shrewd move, except he forgot to file the paperwork to take advantage of the law he created. Pending a state court ruling, he'll be listed as Gavin Newsom, no party preference.

That's like when his wife accidentally joined the American Independent party.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This is how I'd vote:

Numero Uno: NO.
Numero Dos: RO KHANNA, representative for CA17

I didn't know you can write in names in the replacement vote?

There is a write-in option, but California only counts those for official write-in candidates.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Given California's infamously slow ballot counting, is it possible that we might not know if it succeeded on the 14th?

I think that it will be a bit faster since they can process the mail-in ballots when they arrive. I can’t remember if they can pre-count them or what, but they can at least partially process them before Election Day.

It seems like my ballot has already been counted when I looked it up on the SOS website so maybe it will be faster than last time.

It helps that the the ballot has 2 questions instead of the usual dozens for a California ballot.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Early days but will deserve credit to whoever decided not to put a high profile Democrat on the ballot- allowed the race to become about Elder or whatever right winger rose to the top.

In 2003, there was one point at which Bustamante was leading the replacement ballot, and suddenly the recall stopped leading in the polls.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well...

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1429865259804790784

This was the one thing Nate Silver was any good at, averaging polls shortly before a general election, and he still screwed it up.