Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

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Huh, I'm surprised that the Asian share of "worried a lot" in the first graph is so low, considering that 1.3 million undocumented immigrants are Asian.

[KingSweden]

Key point about 2018 that I don't think people like MT realize is Trump is likely to kill the last remaining GOP strongholds in Cali in Orange County an Southern Cali which make up 7-8 seats

Not predicting that Democrats will pick up 40+ seats in 2018 /=/ Refusing to believe that Trump will damage the CA GOP even more than it already is. CA is going to get pretty ugly in 2018 and 2020, no doubt about it. I'm not sure how many seats they will actually pick up there, though.

And like PNM said, I am well aware of the trends in places like Orange County.

I wonder what the state leg swing will be in 2018 in CA

[Gass3268]

39% Approve (-1)
55% Disapprove (+1)

[Wiz in Wis]

California must switch to partisan gerrymandering. So should New York.

Probably impossible in both (CA - Commission created by initiative / NY - Republican run Senate)

The initiative in CA should be repealed.
In NY, the mainstream Democrats should make a deal with the IDC.

There's no reason to repeal the CA initiative. The Dems are already over-represented in the House compared to vote share.

[JohnCA246]

Regarding all these hopes of defeating CA GOP House representatives, is there much evidence much has changed since November? It seems many places already rejected Trump, and voted for the local GOP candidate anyway. Has disapproval in California noticeably grown since November when he received 31% of the state's vote, but most reps held on, or is the thinking that only Democrats will show up this midterm?

Without knowing much about the situation, it seems California outside of Issa's district might be a lot harder to turn than other parts of the country that have already elected Democrats in the last 12 or so years.

[Crumpets]

Regarding all these hopes of defeating CA GOP House representatives, is there much evidence much has changed since November? It seems many places already rejected Trump, and voted for the local GOP candidate anyway. Has disapproval in California noticeably grown since November when he received 31% of the state's vote, but most reps held on, or is the thinking that only Democrats will show up this midterm?

Without knowing much about the situation, it seems California outside of Issa's district might be a lot harder to turn than other parts of the country that have already elected Democrats in the last 12 or so years.

There's probably a statistically significant number of Issa et al. voters who voted for them to keep a check on incoming president Clinton, and now see them as enablers of the Trump agenda. Those voters are who will make the difference in 2018.

[pbrower2a]

39% Approve (-1)
55% Disapprove (+1)

You forgot to say that that was from the Gallup poll. That's not the only national poll.

http://www.gallup.com/interactives/185273/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx?g_source=WWWV7HP&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

Contrasting the last four Presidents:

Obama was ahead of Trump by nearly 20% at this stage in 2009, which is before the TEA Party movement started to cut into his support and led to the semi-fascist government that we now have.  His polling would reach some lows at 40%, but he never went this low.

Dubya, surprisingly, was doing almost as well as Obama at the same time in 2001. There would be the 9/11 attack after which America would rally around him because he went by the book for a while...

Bill Clinton actually took an early tumble, and ended up below Trump was for a couple of days -- but he turned that around. I'm guessing that was about the Whitewater scandal that went nowhere.

If there is statistical hope for Trump it is that he will recover from this point and go up. But Clinton always was a realist, something that Trump has yet to show.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Regarding all these hopes of defeating CA GOP House representatives, is there much evidence much has changed since November? It seems many places already rejected Trump, and voted for the local GOP candidate anyway. Has disapproval in California noticeably grown since November when he received 31% of the state's vote, but most reps held on, or is the thinking that only Democrats will show up this midterm?

Without knowing much about the situation, it seems California outside of Issa's district might be a lot harder to turn than other parts of the country that have already elected Democrats in the last 12 or so years.

There's probably a statistically significant number of Issa et al. voters whop voted for them to keep a check on incoming president Clinton, and now see them as enablers of the Trump agenda. Those voters are who will make the difference in 2018.

That but more importantly a bunch voted for the AHCA

[pbrower2a]

Regarding all these hopes of defeating CA GOP House representatives, is there much evidence much has changed since November? It seems many places already rejected Trump, and voted for the local GOP candidate anyway. Has disapproval in California noticeably grown since November when he received 31% of the state's vote, but most reps held on, or is the thinking that only Democrats will show up this midterm?

Without knowing much about the situation, it seems California outside of Issa's district might be a lot harder to turn than other parts of the country that have already elected Democrats in the last 12 or so years.

Michigan Republicans are likely to have a rough time in 2018. As it is, the state is heavily gerrymandered to the advantage of Republicans with mostly R+3 to R+7. In bad times such pols are vulnerable.  Should Donald Trump be as unpopular as statewide polls of Michigan so indicate, then several such Republicans will likely go down to defeat in 2018. Note well that no Democratic Representative is in any district fully to the west of the US 23 freeway corridor.

I don't have any specifics on Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, or Wisconsin.   

[JohnCA246]

Regarding all these hopes of defeating CA GOP House representatives, is there much evidence much has changed since November? It seems many places already rejected Trump, and voted for the local GOP candidate anyway. Has disapproval in California noticeably grown since November when he received 31% of the state's vote, but most reps held on, or is the thinking that only Democrats will show up this midterm?

Without knowing much about the situation, it seems California outside of Issa's district might be a lot harder to turn than other parts of the country that have already elected Democrats in the last 12 or so years.

Michigan Republicans are likely to have a rough time in 2018. As it is, the state is heavily gerrymandered to the advantage of Republicans with mostly R+3 to R+7. In bad times such pols are vulnerable.  Should Donald Trump be as unpopular as statewide polls of Michigan so indicate, then several such Republicans will likely go down to defeat in 2018. Note well that no Democratic Representative is in any district fully to the west of the US 23 freeway corridor.

I don't have any specifics on Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, or Wisconsin.   

Once again not basing this off of much, but from a first-take, I would imagine there has been more movement in states such as MI or PA than California. The idea of voting for the Republican rep to check Clinton is intriguing, especially if the person normally considers themselves Republican but couldn't stomach Trump. Such a person would not have wanted Clinton to pass her agenda. Enough of them may simply not show up in 2018 or vote for the Dem simply to vote against Trump.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+2)


Paris backlash starting to kick in??

[American2020]

Swing states polls

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-latest-approval-ratings-election-swing-states-how-unpopular-he-619943

[heatcharger]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+2)


Paris backlash starting to kick in??

I doubt that, although I don't really know why his numbers started sliding again.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+2)


Paris backlash starting to kick in??

I doubt that, although I don't really know why his numbers started sliding again.

I recall a poll that 70% of Americans opposed leaving the Paris Agreement. World leaders condemned it, and state governors started to ignore and bypass Trump's decision. Which maybe makes him look weak and ineffective??

The last time Trump lost 2% in a single day in a Gallup poll was right after he fired Comey btw.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+2)


Paris backlash starting to kick in??

Failure never looks good. Devious or fanatical failure looks even worse. He failed to contemplate the consequences of a departure from the Paris agreement. It would be one thing if the President were being mocked by a leader of a country usually hostile to the United States, but when it comes from the President of France...   

I think that we are close to the President's floor in approval ratings -- people who like the Trump agenda pure and hard. 

Swing states polls

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-latest-approval-ratings-election-swing-states-how-unpopular-he-619943

Those swing state results are already on my map.  We may be seeing signs of the likelihood of President Trump losing a re-election bid by legendary levels of failure, at least for a Republican nominee since the time of the Solid South.

[Brittain33]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+2)


Paris backlash starting to kick in??

It could just be positive samples from when Trump was out of the country rolling out of the average and being replaced with samples tainted by Trump's actually being involved with domestic issues again.

[Person Man]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+2)


Paris backlash starting to kick in??

Failure never looks good. Devious or fanatical failure looks even worse. He failed to contemplate the consequences of a departure from the Paris agreement. It would be one thing if the President were being mocked by a leader of a country usually hostile to the United States, but when it comes from the President of France...   

I think that we are close to the President's floor in approval ratings -- people who like the Trump agenda pure and hard. 

Swing states polls

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-latest-approval-ratings-election-swing-states-how-unpopular-he-619943

Those swing state results are already on my map.  We may be seeing signs of the likelihood of President Trump losing a re-election bid by legendary levels of failure, at least for a Republican nominee since the time of the Solid South.

Until we see a recession, I refuse to believe that mid-30's is his floor. But that hardly matters anyway, cuz a mid-30's number is sufficient for almost every Democratic Senator to win again in 2018 and for Dems to make large gains next year as a whole

Anything under 40% will see the Democrats retake the house and stay where they are in the Senate. I imagine that if he does still manage to keep Congress despite being unpopular, it will create the right conditions to vote him out.

There is the appearance in the last few cycles that having a hostile or divided Congress can get you reelected.

[The_Doctor]

There's signs the economy is slowing and job growth has slowed. I'm not sure yet if we're looking at a recession or not this early or not. But the 37% isn't really significant until other pollsters join in and its within the range for those who approved of him in 538, which is 39% approve.

I wouldn't yet make hay out of this.

[Matty]

There's signs the economy is slowing and job growth has slowed. I'm not sure yet if we're looking at a recession or not this early or not. But the 37% isn't really significant until other pollsters join in and its within the range for those who approved of him in 538, which is 39% approve.

I wouldn't yet make hay out of this.

The latest GDP now estimate from the federal reserve has the economy growing 4% in the second quarter of 2017. That is nowhere near recession territory. Furthermore, we are officially at full employment. At full employment, there will be less employment growth simply because there is very little slack.

It's why George W Bush's 2003-2007 economy saw fairly pedestrian job numbers. It wasn't that the economy was poor in that time (it wasn't), it was that for that time period, unemployment was below 4.5%.

[Matty]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+2)


Paris backlash starting to kick in??

Failure never looks good. Devious or fanatical failure looks even worse. He failed to contemplate the consequences of a departure from the Paris agreement. It would be one thing if the President were being mocked by a leader of a country usually hostile to the United States, but when it comes from the President of France...   

I think that we are close to the President's floor in approval ratings -- people who like the Trump agenda pure and hard. 

Swing states polls

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-latest-approval-ratings-election-swing-states-how-unpopular-he-619943

Those swing state results are already on my map.  We may be seeing signs of the likelihood of President Trump losing a re-election bid by legendary levels of failure, at least for a Republican nominee since the time of the Solid South.

Until we see a recession, I refuse to believe that mid-30's is his floor. But that hardly matters anyway, cuz a mid-30's number is sufficient for almost every Democratic Senator to win again in 2018 and for Dems to make large gains next year as a whole

Anything under 40% will see the Democrats retake the house and stay where they are in the Senate. I imagine that if he does still manage to keep Congress despite being unpopular, it will create the right conditions to vote him out.

There is the appearance in the last few cycles that having a hostile or divided Congress can get you reelected.

I'd laugh if the democrats retake the house and senate, pass a bunch of popular legislation, and trump signs it and becomes more popular and wins reelection.

It would be bill clinton all over again.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+2)


Paris backlash starting to kick in??

Failure never looks good. Devious or fanatical failure looks even worse. He failed to contemplate the consequences of a departure from the Paris agreement. It would be one thing if the President were being mocked by a leader of a country usually hostile to the United States, but when it comes from the President of France...   

I think that we are close to the President's floor in approval ratings -- people who like the Trump agenda pure and hard. 

Swing states polls

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-latest-approval-ratings-election-swing-states-how-unpopular-he-619943

Those swing state results are already on my map.  We may be seeing signs of the likelihood of President Trump losing a re-election bid by legendary levels of failure, at least for a Republican nominee since the time of the Solid South.

Until we see a recession, I refuse to believe that mid-30's is his floor. But that hardly matters anyway, cuz a mid-30's number is sufficient for almost every Democratic Senator to win again in 2018 and for Dems to make large gains next year as a whole

Anything under 40% will see the Democrats retake the house and stay where they are in the Senate. I imagine that if he does still manage to keep Congress despite being unpopular, it will create the right conditions to vote him out.

There is the appearance in the last few cycles that having a hostile or divided Congress can get you reelected.

I'd laugh if the democrats retake the house and senate, pass a bunch of popular legislation, and trump signs it and becomes more popular and wins reelection.

It would be bill clinton all over again.

In view of the extreme contempt that the President has for anything liberal and his complete lack of pragmatism that looks about as likely as a tiger converting to vegetarianism. 

The only way in which the Democrats get President Trump to sign legislation that a Democratic majority in both Houses of Congress can pass is if we have a recession that forces actions contrary to the will of the President. That's the environment in which TARP was passed. ...I would not make a great deal out of a 2% swing in the Gallup polling estimate of the approval rating of the President. The typical margin of error in approval polling is about 4%.  Analysis of a 2% difference is specious except in electoral results in which even one vote can be enough to decide an electoral result. 

I'm guessing that 37% is close to his floor, and that reflects the worst that can happen when the US is not staring defeat in the face in an unpopular war, a recession is underway, or inflation is scaring people. 

[Matty]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+2)


Paris backlash starting to kick in??

Failure never looks good. Devious or fanatical failure looks even worse. He failed to contemplate the consequences of a departure from the Paris agreement. It would be one thing if the President were being mocked by a leader of a country usually hostile to the United States, but when it comes from the President of France...   

I think that we are close to the President's floor in approval ratings -- people who like the Trump agenda pure and hard. 

Swing states polls

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-latest-approval-ratings-election-swing-states-how-unpopular-he-619943

Those swing state results are already on my map.  We may be seeing signs of the likelihood of President Trump losing a re-election bid by legendary levels of failure, at least for a Republican nominee since the time of the Solid South.

Until we see a recession, I refuse to believe that mid-30's is his floor. But that hardly matters anyway, cuz a mid-30's number is sufficient for almost every Democratic Senator to win again in 2018 and for Dems to make large gains next year as a whole

Anything under 40% will see the Democrats retake the house and stay where they are in the Senate. I imagine that if he does still manage to keep Congress despite being unpopular, it will create the right conditions to vote him out.

There is the appearance in the last few cycles that having a hostile or divided Congress can get you reelected.

I'd laugh if the democrats retake the house and senate, pass a bunch of popular legislation, and trump signs it and becomes more popular and wins reelection.

It would be bill clinton all over again.

In view of the extreme contempt that the President has for anything liberal and his complete lack of pragmatism that looks about as likely as a tiger converting to vegetarianism. 

The only way in which the Democrats get President Trump to sign legislation that a Democratic majority in both Houses of Congress can pass is if we have a recession that forces actions contrary to the will of the President. That's the environment in which TARP was passed. ...I would not make a great deal out of a 2% swing in the Gallup polling estimate of the approval rating of the President. The typical margin of error in approval polling is about 4%.  Analysis of a 2% difference is specious except in electoral results in which even one vote can be enough to decide an electoral result. 

I'm guessing that 37% is close to his floor, and that reflects the worst that can happen when the US is not staring defeat in the face in an unpopular war, a recession is underway, or inflation is scaring people. 

You do realize trump for most of his adult life has either been a democrat or a maverick republican, correct? He has spoken favorably in the past for single payer, higher taxes on the rich, etc. Who knows how he would react with a dem house. But to say trump hates all things liberal is not the truth. Hell, just last week he included paid leave in his budget.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I'd laugh if the democrats retake the house and senate, pass a bunch of popular legislation, and trump signs it and becomes more popular and wins reelection.

It would be bill clinton all over again.

The 90's aren't coming back for the foreseeable future. Increasing polarization has been the norm from approximately 2000-onwards. The Democrats would've won in a crushing wave in 2018 to take back both the House and senate given the map for the latter. They'd have a lot of political capital at their disposal in such an environment and would spend most of their time investigating Trump's conflicts of interest and Russian connections before passing any kind of legislation. They'd be focused on 2020 and nothing else.

Also Trump isn't politically savvy enough to triangulate. I don't even think he knows what that word means.

[The_Doctor]

There's signs the economy is slowing and job growth has slowed. I'm not sure yet if we're looking at a recession or not this early or not. But the 37% isn't really significant until other pollsters join in and its within the range for those who approved of him in 538, which is 39% approve.

I wouldn't yet make hay out of this.

The latest GDP now estimate from the federal reserve has the economy growing 4% in the second quarter of 2017. That is nowhere near recession territory. Furthermore, we are officially at full employment. At full employment, there will be less employment growth simply because there is very little slack.

It's why George W Bush's 2003-2007 economy saw fairly pedestrian job numbers. It wasn't that the economy was poor in that time (it wasn't), it was that for that time period, unemployment was below 4.5%.

The bigger question is why wage growth isn't picking up actually.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+2)


Paris backlash starting to kick in??

Failure never looks good. Devious or fanatical failure looks even worse. He failed to contemplate the consequences of a departure from the Paris agreement. It would be one thing if the President were being mocked by a leader of a country usually hostile to the United States, but when it comes from the President of France...   

I think that we are close to the President's floor in approval ratings -- people who like the Trump agenda pure and hard. 

Swing states polls

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-latest-approval-ratings-election-swing-states-how-unpopular-he-619943

Those swing state results are already on my map.  We may be seeing signs of the likelihood of President Trump losing a re-election bid by legendary levels of failure, at least for a Republican nominee since the time of the Solid South.

Until we see a recession, I refuse to believe that mid-30's is his floor. But that hardly matters anyway, cuz a mid-30's number is sufficient for almost every Democratic Senator to win again in 2018 and for Dems to make large gains next year as a whole

Anything under 40% will see the Democrats retake the house and stay where they are in the Senate. I imagine that if he does still manage to keep Congress despite being unpopular, it will create the right conditions to vote him out.

There is the appearance in the last few cycles that having a hostile or divided Congress can get you reelected.

I'd laugh if the democrats retake the house and senate, pass a bunch of popular legislation, and trump signs it and becomes more popular and wins reelection.

It would be bill clinton all over again.

In view of the extreme contempt that the President has for anything liberal and his complete lack of pragmatism that looks about as likely as a tiger converting to vegetarianism. 

The only way in which the Democrats get President Trump to sign legislation that a Democratic majority in both Houses of Congress can pass is if we have a recession that forces actions contrary to the will of the President. That's the environment in which TARP was passed. ...I would not make a great deal out of a 2% swing in the Gallup polling estimate of the approval rating of the President. The typical margin of error in approval polling is about 4%.  Analysis of a 2% difference is specious except in electoral results in which even one vote can be enough to decide an electoral result. 

I'm guessing that 37% is close to his floor, and that reflects the worst that can happen when the US is not staring defeat in the face in an unpopular war, a recession is underway, or inflation is scaring people. 

You do realize trump for most of his adult life has either been a democrat or a maverick republican, correct? He has spoken favorably in the past for single payer, higher taxes on the rich, etc. Who knows how he would react with a dem house. But to say trump hates all things liberal is not the truth. Hell, just last week he included paid leave in his budget.

If that was remotely true then the AHCA wouldn't been a thing