Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Illiniwek]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1496164151009423362

HOW ABOUT NO?

[Illiniwek]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1496143838402035712

Good! This and the responses by both the US and EU are much more severe than they were in 2014. Especially how fast both sides have reacted. You just can be glad Biden is the president now, as it would not have been possible with the clown the preceded him.

What's also striking is that China has not voiced the usual support for Russia this time around. At the Munich Security Conference, the Chinese foreign minister even said something like an invasion was a violation of international rule (of course, the Chinese regime has an interest not to set any kind of precedent for separatist movements in Western parts of China).

For those wondering how Trump would have responded to this crises, here is a window into that alternative universe:

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1496221147729481732

What a dangerous dumb dumb.

[Illiniwek]

If I had to rank the German parties from most pro-Putin/pro-Russian to least pro-Putin/pro-Russian it would probably look like this:

1. AfD
2. Left
3. SPD
4. CDU/CSU
5. Greens
6. FDP

Pretty good ranking of German political parties from most reprehensible to least!

[Illiniwek]

CNN's ground reporter in Kyiv is reporting explosions nearer to downtown and says (via Interior Minister) that there are already hundreds of casualties nationwide

I desperately wish we could do more to help the poor people of Ukraine. And shame on the pro-Putin shills here!

[Illiniwek]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1496709533661646850

OK, this is bad, if true (needs confirmation). Russia may be attacking Moldova also, not just Ukraine.

I saw a report of this 5-10 minutes ago but assumed it must be a mistake, but this is 2nd report I saw.

If it is true, WHAT THE HELL ?? MOLDOVA ??

If true, the odds of a nuclear exchange just increased by that much.

If he’s going for Moldova, this is going to get extremely hot very quickly.

[Illiniwek]

https://twitter.com/JoostBroekers/status/1496837546747502604

So bizarre to see the people’s indifference to the sirens. I would be freaking the heck out of I was there.

[Illiniwek]

https://twitter.com/JoshNBCNews/status/1496884570716835840?s=20&t=OZ9sTi02ZF...

Surrendering to Ukraine is a bold move if Russia wins the war over the coming days. I can't imagine Putin will treat his soldiers well who laid down their arms because they didn't agree with the mission.

[Illiniwek]

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1497047402469109806

Kinda uncomfortable with how consistently good Rubio has been about this whole situation.

Maybe blasphemous but he’s been one of the better major US pols on foreign policy for awhile. Definitely the best Republican

At this point I’d be fine if he was representative of the GOP as a whole.

[Illiniwek]

https://twitter.com/Eurovision/status/1497243799889711104

Putin has overplayed his hand now guys.

[Illiniwek]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1498127761382477826?t=0rITZiQDDadWUVrL...

NUT!!!!!!

[Illiniwek]

International Olympic Committee now supports no Russian or Belarusian athletes or officials at the Olympics under any capacity.

Lol when has an IOC punishment on Russia ever stuck?

[Illiniwek]

Looks like European resolve didn’t even last 24 hours.

Orban, you could have had a turn around, now you’re back on the sh**t list

Europe deserves invasion at this point. I’m saying it here. So does the US tbh.

Congratulations, you’re just as terrible as the pro-Putin shills. Go away. Log off. Seek help. Everyone is tired of your nonsense clogging up this series thread.

[Illiniwek]

US officials believe a huge second wave of Russian soldiers who will be able to overwhelm the Ukrainian resistance is coming according to CNN.

This was bound to happen at some point. I guess we just have to wish that the resistance is able to keep some territory to operate out of and that the Ukrainians and the rest of the world can continue to make this as costly on Russia as possible.

[Illiniwek]

Apple to suspend product sales in Russia. Furthermore, RT and Sputnik are banned from Apple app shop.

https://twitter.com/markuspreiss/status/1498771139325313029

So much winning Putin! So much winning!!!!

[Illiniwek]

Anyway, this seems like a reasonable analysis of the war to me

https://twitter.com/LizSly/status/1498797741329338371

Russia will win the conventional phase in a month or two. But the struggle for Ukrainian independence will be generational. Yet to be seen if Russia can build an effective and legitimate occupation government.

15-20 years?! Putin will probably be dead by then, he's nearly reached the average lifespan of a Russian, 73, and already passed the average lifespan of a Russian male, 68. I agree that this war could last that long, especially if fronts settle (similar to what happened in the Donbass after early 2015). But I'd hope, for Ukraine's sake, some external event would cause it to end before 15-20 years. (An event such as regime change in Russia, NATO intervention, etc.)

15-20 years is a very bizarrely distant-yet-precise estimate. Like, why not just 5 years? Why not 13 years? Why not 30? We have no idea what else will happen in the world, especially if, like you point out, Putin could be forced out or die within the next year.

[Illiniwek]

How the Russian monarchist scene outside of Vladimir Zhirinovsky on the days he claim to be a monarchist.

If this helps, the House of Romanov officially condemns the invasion of Ukraine.

Pro-monarchist coup!!! Yes… ha ha ha… YES!

[Illiniwek]

https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1499479196778709019

Yes . . . Ha Ha Ha . . . Yes!!

[Illiniwek]

Honestly, I am surprised there hasn't been more done to take out the train lines between Russia and Ukraine. Not that these videos of what the trains are carrying are impressive. But any blow to their supply line you would think would be crippling.

[Illiniwek]

Should Biden bend over on this one as the lesser evil?

No. The Saudi-caused humanitarian crisis in Yemen is still way worse than the Russian-caused one in Ukraine and will probably continue to be so through several more rounds of potential escalation of the latter conflict.

But unironically, Guess who's buddies with Saudi Arabia ? Russia, people.


I wonder why we're still friends with Saudi Arabia, because it's obvious that they have dangerous ties with Russia and other hostile states. It's the oil isn't it ?

Of course it's the oil, plus sheer Cold War inertia from when the overall American Middle East policy was to prop up despotic monarchies against nominally-socialist authoritarian republics. What else would it be?

But they're all the freaking same. Anti Democratic. No Freedoms.

Not really : the Shah was way better than the Ayotallah , the King was better than whoever came next in Afghanistan and Suddam was a greater evil to the Saudis in the Gulf War(given he wanted to invade them too).

There were others that would have gone better if we left them alone though. Sometimes it was better to intervene but other times it’s not. I hope that this crisis furthers the conditioning of globalization and economic relationships on human rights. Couch than that terms, I can almost tolerate a “drill baby drill” policy on energy… to a point.

Yah I agree and with Iran it would have been better if we didn’t remove Mosaddegh

History may have been drastically better if we didn’t. Sigh….

[Illiniwek]

Joe Biden’s World…

Seriously?

[Illiniwek]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1502269426606952452


https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1502264801430581257

First time I'm thinking maybe Russia is onto something...

[Illiniwek]

RIP
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502298793542303747?s=20&t=x99rf99os4U5-o...

Isn't that the third general they've lost now?

Call me naïve, but I find it hard to believe that its very common for generals in major armed forces to die in combat post WWII....

[Illiniwek]

Financial Times reports that Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

Armed forces limits?!
That is a terrible idea. Why should Ukraine accept that?

Yeah this seems to just set up a re-invasion in a few years when they invent another phony reason to invade.

I still think the deal should be
a) Constitutional neutrality for Ukraine with a de facto understanding that Ukraine joining any alliance or having foreign troops on its solid without Russian permission would mean another Russian invasion
b) Russian as a second official language in Ukraine
c) Ukraine accept Crimea as part of Russia
d) The two Donetsk republics rejoin Ukraine as autonomous regions

This would appear to be an acceptable deal.

[Illiniwek]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

If this deal happens, hypothetically, do the sanctions end?

[Illiniwek]

More Elon being Elon:

I wonder if something happened a few years after 2012 that would have led many Ukrainians in the east to change their minds regarding Russia? Hmmm....

Edit: Furthermore, the Party of Regions wasn't simply "the pro-Russia party". Yes it favored good relations with Russia, but while also making closer ties to Europe. Yanukovych pursued an Association Agreement with the EU until Putin basically blackmailed him into not signing it.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1577842427897020417?s=20&t=mRv0xcOqTnTNi...

Edit: Unsurprisingly, within a few hours his tweet was on Russian state television:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1577942890000547841?s=20&t=mRv0xcOq...

He really sucks man...