Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Friday, October 10, 2008
Obama 50% (nc)
McCain 45% (nc)

I really, really, really hope this is true. If McCain can narrow Obama's lead to about three points before Election day and Obama is under 50%...well...we still have a chance at this thing...

there's been too much early voting...McCain would have to be tied in the polls coming into election day

[Zarn]

Al: Uh... Sauron is not running.

I forgot about the 'early voting.' What a scam.

[Sam Spade]

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.50%	(50.48%	50.87%	52.07%	52.14%)
McCain	45.44%	(45.00%	44.64%	43.51%	43.92%)

Note:  The 50.50% actually rounds down, as it is 50.496.

[Zarn]

Just seeing if I get this right...

McCain went up 0.44. Obama less than 0.02. Right?

Did I finally get it?

If so, it seems McCain is getting people back into the fold, following the economic problems. Obama only lost very little, overall.

[Sam Spade]

Ya, that's kind of the idea.  Truthfully, I expect a McCain bloodbath in the tracking polls today after the events of yesterday.  The only one that might not show it is a *real* weighted one, like Rasmussen.

Of course, the sample that drops off tomorrow is more pro-McCain than the samples that went on the past two days, so who knows.  However, the samples of the past two days have been more McCain favorable than the two that dropped off previously.

[Zarn]

I guess it depends on if people think Obama can handle it or not... the ones not supporting him at this point, anyway.

[Lief 🗽]

Friday, October 10, 2008
Obama 50% (nc)
McCain 45% (nc)

I really, really, really hope this is true. If McCain can narrow Obama's lead to about three points before Election day and Obama is under 50%...well...we still have a chance at this thing...

Yeah! Bradley Effect! Woooo!

[Zarn]

Friday, October 10, 2008
Obama 50% (nc)
McCain 45% (nc)

I really, really, really hope this is true. If McCain can narrow Obama's lead to about three points before Election day and Obama is under 50%...well...we still have a chance at this thing...

Yeah! Bradley Effect! Woooo!

Let me guess. You are one of those who assume the Bradley Effect is inheritantly racist?

The Dems always poll better than they vote, anway.

[Lief 🗽]

Friday, October 10, 2008
Obama 50% (nc)
McCain 45% (nc)

I really, really, really hope this is true. If McCain can narrow Obama's lead to about three points before Election day and Obama is under 50%...well...we still have a chance at this thing...

Yeah! Bradley Effect! Woooo!

Let me guess. You are one of those who assume the Bradley Effect is inheritantly racist?

The Dems always poll better than they vote, anway.

Yes it is and that's just false.

[Zarn]

Friday, October 10, 2008
Obama 50% (nc)
McCain 45% (nc)

I really, really, really hope this is true. If McCain can narrow Obama's lead to about three points before Election day and Obama is under 50%...well...we still have a chance at this thing...

Yeah! Bradley Effect! Woooo!

Let me guess. You are one of those who assume the Bradley Effect is inheritantly racist?

The Dems always poll better than they vote, anway.

Yes it is and that's just false.

Tell me how it is inherently racist.

[Lief 🗽]

Not voting for someone because of the color of their skin is not racist now? k.

[Dan the Roman]

Friday, October 10, 2008
Obama 50% (nc)
McCain 45% (nc)

I really, really, really hope this is true. If McCain can narrow Obama's lead to about three points before Election day and Obama is under 50%...well...we still have a chance at this thing...

Yeah! Bradley Effect! Woooo!

Let me guess. You are one of those who assume the Bradley Effect is inheritantly racist?

The Dems always poll better than they vote, anway.

BS. See 1998, 2000, 2006.

[Nutmeg]

Tell me how it is inherently racist.

Discrepancies between voters' actions inside the voting booth and their responses to pollsters in response to candidates' races is the entire premise of the Bradley Effect.

[J. J.]

Not voting for someone because of the color of their skin is not racist now? k.

The Bradley Effect is not voting against someone on the basis of race.  It is saying to a pollster, *I'm undecided* or *I'm voting for Obama* when the voter really believes *I like McCain better, but I don't want the pollster to think I'm racist.*

[Alcon]

Not voting for someone because of the color of their skin is not racist now? k.

The Bradley Effect is not voting against someone on the basis of race.  It is saying to a pollster, *I'm undecided* or *I'm voting for Obama* when the voter really believes *I like McCain better, but I don't want the pollster to think I'm racist.*

It could also be "I'm racist, and I don't want the pollster to know."  They're completely indistinguishable.

[J. J.]

Not voting for someone because of the color of their skin is not racist now? k.

The Bradley Effect is not voting against someone on the basis of race.  It is saying to a pollster, *I'm undecided* or *I'm voting for Obama* when the voter really believes *I like McCain better, but I don't want the pollster to think I'm racist.*

It could also be "I'm racist, and I don't want the pollster to know."  They're completely indistinguishable.

That would still come under "I like McCain better."

[Alcon]

Not voting for someone because of the color of their skin is not racist now? k.

The Bradley Effect is not voting against someone on the basis of race.  It is saying to a pollster, *I'm undecided* or *I'm voting for Obama* when the voter really believes *I like McCain better, but I don't want the pollster to think I'm racist.*

It could also be "I'm racist, and I don't want the pollster to know."  They're completely indistinguishable.

That would still come under "I like McCain better."

But it would also very potentially come under "not voting for someone on the basis of race," which you said that the Bradley Effect cannot be.  That's untrue.

[J. J.]

Not voting for someone because of the color of their skin is not racist now? k.

The Bradley Effect is not voting against someone on the basis of race.  It is saying to a pollster, *I'm undecided* or *I'm voting for Obama* when the voter really believes *I like McCain better, but I don't want the pollster to think I'm racist.*

It could also be "I'm racist, and I don't want the pollster to know."  They're completely indistinguishable.

That would still come under "I like McCain better."

But it would also very potentially come under "not voting for someone on the basis of race," which you said that the Bradley Effect cannot be.  That's untrue.

Actually, it isn't.  The effect describes the interaction between a voter and a pollster.  A voter that says **I'm voting for McCain because Obama is black,** is not part of the Bradley Effect.  Also not that I've indicated the possibility of black voters that are part of the Bradley Effect.

[Lunar]

That's no true.  The Bradley Effect encompasses every reason why a candidate could be overpolled because of race.   Lying to pollsters is only one theory of one aspect of the effect.

[Alcon]

Actually, it isn't.  The effect describes the interaction between a voter and a pollster.  A voter that says **I'm voting for McCain because Obama is black,** is not part of the Bradley Effect.  Also not that I've indicated the possibility of black voters that are part of the Bradley Effect.

Can you find me a single major source that defines the Bradley Effect as discluding actual racists? Why would it?  The effect is unchanged regardless of the intent, and the intent can't be determined through non-psychic means.

There are different theories behind the Bradley Effect; the Bradley Effect itself does not posit a theory.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why would it?

To help J.J. sleep at night.

[Lunar]

Well, J.J. is correct that if someone who says "I'm voting for McCain" to the pollster, that is not part of the Bradley effect, and I think that's what he meant.  It doesn't matter if they think Obama's an uppity negro or if they like McCain's haircut.  But he is incorrect in identifying what the B.E. is.

[J. J.]

Well, J.J. is correct that if someone who says "I'm voting for McCain" to the pollster, that is not part of the Bradley effect, and I think that's what he meant.  It doesn't matter if they think Obama's an uppity negro or if they like McCain's haircut.  But he is incorrect in identifying what the B.E. is.

Oh, how.

BTW Al:  If I wasn't going to vote for Obama because of race, I'd say so.

Right now, my major problems with Obama are his insincerity, lack of executive experience on the ticket (which is why I liked Richardson, Bayh, and Kaine), and his insularity.  Two out of three would not be there if he were Governor Obama.

[Zarn]

For the record, I'm not saying none are racist. I'm saying that many just don't want to look like one.

[J. J.]

For the record, I'm not saying none are racist. I'm saying that many just don't want to look like one.

I think that is the key and one reason I want to look at black neighborhoods.