2022*
Senate: R+3
House: R+20
2024**
Trump/Reynolds 318 EV/ 50.6%
Biden/Harris 220 EV/48.2%
Senate: R+6 (so Sinema is now the swing vote for a supermajority)
House: R+15
*There is a mild correlation between a really bad 1st midterm and the incumbent president being reelected, probably because they move to the center and start making deals with the opposition-controlled congress. I have Democrats doing poorly enough to lose control, but beating expectations a bit and not doing so poorly as to counsel Biden away from the base-first strategy.
**An interesting wrinkle is that DeSantis currently cannot be Trump's VP (or Florida's EVs don't count), so I went with a relatively older small-state governor as the VP, to leave the 2028 field open for DeSantis. I also think it helps to make 2024 a pretty big R win to inspire overconfidence.
If that was the map I’d expect Reynolds to be the 2028 GOP nominee, not DeSantis.
