A time traveller tells you DeSantis loses in 2028. What happens in 2022 and beyond?

[Ferguson97]

All you know about the 2028 election is that Ron DeSantis loses the general election. You don't know if he was the incumbent or if it was an open election.

What happened with the rest of Biden's presidency? What happened in the 2024 election?

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't see DeSantis losing as a incumbent or after eight straight years of a Democratic president so I assume that he's following a term-limited Trump.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't see DeSantis losing as a incumbent or after eight straight years of a Democratic president so I assume that he's following a term-limited Trump.

Yes, that is by far the most likely outcome.  Throw in a durable R senate majority 2022-28 to encourage additional ticket splitting for the Dem?

[Skill and Chance]

2022*

Senate: R+3

House: R+20

2024**



Trump/Reynolds 318 EV/ 50.6%
Biden/Harris 220 EV/48.2%

Senate: R+6 (so Sinema is now the swing vote for a supermajority)
House: R+15


*There is a mild correlation between a really bad 1st midterm and the incumbent president being reelected, probably because they move to the center and start making deals with the opposition-controlled congress.  I have Democrats doing poorly enough to lose control, but beating expectations a bit and not doing so poorly as to counsel Biden away from the base-first strategy.

**An interesting wrinkle is that DeSantis currently cannot be Trump's VP (or Florida's EVs don't count), so I went with a relatively older small-state governor as the VP, to leave the 2028 field open for DeSantis.  I also think it helps to make 2024 a pretty big R win to inspire overconfidence.


 

[Agonized-Statism]

**An interesting wrinkle is that DeSantis currently cannot be Trump's VP (or Florida's EVs don't count), so I went with a relatively older small-state governor as the VP, to leave the 2028 field open for DeSantis.  I also think it helps to make 2024 a pretty big R win to inspire overconfidence.

He would probably just move back to New York.

[Tekken_Guy]

2022*

Senate: R+3

House: R+20

2024**



Trump/Reynolds 318 EV/ 50.6%
Biden/Harris 220 EV/48.2%

Senate: R+6 (so Sinema is now the swing vote for a supermajority)
House: R+15


*There is a mild correlation between a really bad 1st midterm and the incumbent president being reelected, probably because they move to the center and start making deals with the opposition-controlled congress.  I have Democrats doing poorly enough to lose control, but beating expectations a bit and not doing so poorly as to counsel Biden away from the base-first strategy.

**An interesting wrinkle is that DeSantis currently cannot be Trump's VP (or Florida's EVs don't count), so I went with a relatively older small-state governor as the VP, to leave the 2028 field open for DeSantis.  I also think it helps to make 2024 a pretty big R win to inspire overconfidence.


 

If that was the map I’d expect Reynolds to be the 2028 GOP nominee, not DeSantis.

[Ferguson97]

I don't see DeSantis losing as a incumbent or after eight straight years of a Democratic president so I assume that he's following a term-limited Trump.

Agreed - not because I think DeSantis is necessarily a strong incumbent, but just because the idea of three one-term Presidents in a row is just bonkers to me.

If DeSantis loses in 2028, then Trump won in 2024. Harder question is which Dem beat DeSantis? Hard to see Harris accomplishing this unless Trump had a tsecond term that was somehow worse than the first.

[Roll Roons]

I don't see DeSantis losing as a incumbent or after eight straight years of a Democratic president so I assume that he's following a term-limited Trump.

Agreed - not because I think DeSantis is necessarily a strong incumbent, but just because the idea of three one-term Presidents in a row is just bonkers to me.

If DeSantis loses in 2028, then Trump won in 2024. Harder question is which Dem beat DeSantis? Hard to see Harris accomplishing this unless Trump had a tsecond term that was somehow worse than the first.

My guess would be one of the following:
Josh Shapiro
Gretchen Whitmer
Jared Polis
Andy Beshear
Jon Ossoff
Raphael Warnock

[Ferguson97]

I don't see DeSantis losing as a incumbent or after eight straight years of a Democratic president so I assume that he's following a term-limited Trump.

Agreed - not because I think DeSantis is necessarily a strong incumbent, but just because the idea of three one-term Presidents in a row is just bonkers to me.

If DeSantis loses in 2028, then Trump won in 2024. Harder question is which Dem beat DeSantis? Hard to see Harris accomplishing this unless Trump had a tsecond term that was somehow worse than the first.

My guess would be one of the following:
Josh Shapiro
Gretchen Whitmer
Jared Polis
Andy Beshear
Jon Ossoff
Raphael Warnock

Warnock would be a really strong candidate. Black preacher from the south checks off a lot of boxes.

[Person Man]

2022*

Senate: R+3

House: R+20

2024**



Trump/Reynolds 318 EV/ 50.6%
Biden/Harris 220 EV/48.2%

Senate: R+6 (so Sinema is now the swing vote for a supermajority)
House: R+15


*There is a mild correlation between a really bad 1st midterm and the incumbent president being reelected, probably because they move to the center and start making deals with the opposition-controlled congress.  I have Democrats doing poorly enough to lose control, but beating expectations a bit and not doing so poorly as to counsel Biden away from the base-first strategy.

**An interesting wrinkle is that DeSantis currently cannot be Trump's VP (or Florida's EVs don't count), so I went with a relatively older small-state governor as the VP, to leave the 2028 field open for DeSantis.  I also think it helps to make 2024 a pretty big R win to inspire overconfidence.


 

What would 26 and 28 look like? I have a feeling that Democrats will get to at least finally get Maine and North Carolina and might have a shot at Iowa, Texas, and Alaska. 28 could see all of their gains erased and PA, NC, and WI flipping. Democrats can still get a healthy trifecta even if Republicans do get into 2024 with big margins.

[LabourJersey]

I don't see DeSantis losing as a incumbent or after eight straight years of a Democratic president so I assume that he's following a term-limited Trump.

Agreed - not because I think DeSantis is necessarily a strong incumbent, but just because the idea of three one-term Presidents in a row is just bonkers to me.

If DeSantis loses in 2028, then Trump won in 2024. Harder question is which Dem beat DeSantis? Hard to see Harris accomplishing this unless Trump had a tsecond term that was somehow worse than the first.

Is the idea of three one-term presidents really that bonkers in this day and age?

It's increasingly hard to govern this country, and with polarization and general discontent it's hard to keep presidential approval ratings over 50%. I don't see it being surprising at all if he have three one-term presidents in a row.

[LabourJersey]

2024:




2028:

[Agonized-Statism]

2028:

Gooooood, gooood, the Cult of Ruben Gallego is forming as I have foreseen

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I don't see DeSantis losing as a incumbent or after eight straight years of a Democratic president so I assume that he's following a term-limited Trump.

Agreed - not because I think DeSantis is necessarily a strong incumbent, but just because the idea of three one-term Presidents in a row is just bonkers to me.

If DeSantis loses in 2028, then Trump won in 2024. Harder question is which Dem beat DeSantis? Hard to see Harris accomplishing this unless Trump had a tsecond term that was somehow worse than the first.

Is the idea of three one-term presidents really that bonkers in this day and age?

It's increasingly hard to govern this country, and with polarization and general discontent it's hard to keep presidential approval ratings over 50%. I don't see it being surprising at all if he have three one-term presidents in a row.

I think that the 3 consecutive two termers we had recently (Clinton-Bush-Obama) was an aberration. Heck, we almost didn’t get Bush. Hard to say if Biden would be a one-termer. Trump is such a wildcard. He almost seems like he might be the easiest for Biden to beat. DeSantis could probably beat Biden if Trump didn’t run, but that’s me trying to predict something 32 months out.

[Agonized-Statism]

I think that the 3 consecutive two termers we had recently (Clinton-Bush-Obama) was an aberration. Heck, we almost didn’t get Bush. Hard to say if Biden would be a one-termer. Trump is such a wildcard. He almost seems like he might be the easiest for Biden to beat. DeSantis could probably beat Biden if Trump didn’t run, but that’s me trying to predict something 32 months out.

I'm refraining from making 2024 predictions right now (which really hurts lol) because things are so volatile. Everything could make a complete 180° for Biden as COVID and its economic impact recede with vaccinations increasing globally, but there could also be a new variant that throws everything off. Maybe he gets a major win under his belt with his sabre-rattling, maybe he doesn't. Maybe we go to war somewhere. Maybe his health gives out, maybe Trump's health gives out, maybe both. Maybe one or both run anyway despite bad health and it effects their campaign. Maybe DeSantis primaries Trump, maybe he doesn't, maybe he runs with him. Maybe Trump ultimately doesn't run and backs DeSantis' opponent in the primaries. Maybe someone big primaries Biden or Harris. Maybe the Democrats play the idiot ball and randomly put Harris on the Supreme Court because they're so scared of running her, ironically screwing themselves for 2024 in the process. Hey, maybe there's a terrorist attack out of the blue that becomes the next big thing. We just don't know.

But with all that chaos, yeah, the two-term back-and-forth norm we're accustomed to isn't a guarantee.