Australia 2022 Election

[S019]

Felt like I should post this here: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/alarm-bells-for-coalition-as-scott-morrisons-newspoll-ratings-drop/news-story/acbb2e070b2a13d5b79c1eab15e1ff40

A 56-44 Labor lead in the latest Newspoll is just the latest in a series of bad polls for the Coalition over the last several weeks, there's still four months left, but the Coalition is not in a good spot, at the moment.

[S019]

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll-labor-still-ahead-but-the-gap-is-narrowing/news-story/07b6099fb36eddb9f119cc0c2889081d

Labor has a 55-45 lead in the latest Newspoll, which is the same lead as they had a few weeks ago. Scott Morrison leads the preferred PM by 2 points, which is not a particularly great spot for a government seeking re-election (being underwater on this question is a good sign that the government is absolutely toast). Lastly, for reference, Labor was leading 53-47 at this point in 2019, there is still time for the Coalition to close the gap with the election (likely) in May, but they are probably somewhat behind, at least, at the moment.

[S019]

Labor are leading by 14 points in the polls over the LNP.

Not even a Hillary Clinton style choke will stop Albo from losing this election.

Labor has got it in the bag.

Women just don't like Scomo.

Link please?

I'm pretty sure it's this from Roy Morgan: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8931-roy-morgan-poll-on-federal-voting-intention-early-april-2022-202204110842

The problem being that Roy Morgan is just not a particularly good pollster.

[S019]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/solomon-islands-tells-japan-it-will-not-allow-china-military-bases-2022-04-26/

Reports that the Solomon Islands have told Japan that they will not allow a Chinese military base, I wonder if this takes some of the pressure off of the government that they've faced recently over the situation.

[S019]

Labor launched their campaign in Western Australia today. Albanese's speech made some attacks on the government and he also revealed a few new policies. I noticed a particularly strong focus (throughout the speech) on Labor's plans for aged care, the NDIS, the housing crisis, and energy.

[S019]

In addition to what Pulaski said, he noted that Wentworth and North Sydney are favored to fall to the independents, and that the independents have a real shot at Goldstein, Kooyong, and (somewhat surprisingly) Curtin. Also I got the impression that he said Labor was favored in Bennelong (which I agree with Pulaski that it's something to be skeptical of, especially since he seemed to imply it was an easier seat for Labor than Lindsay or Reid), I'm a bit surprised that Banks and Robertson aren't more competitive given how close those seats were in 2016 and the swing to Labor in NSW that the polls are showing.

[S019]

I guess I'll post a prediction too: https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=fo3b

(Since this uses the 2019 map there is no Hawke, so the rating for the abolished Stirling is what I'm using to rate Hawke (which would obviously be for Labor))

Anyways I probably gave a bit too many marginals to Labor, but if Labor's TPP is really at 52-53%, I don't believe they'd just get over the line.

[S019]

The Coalition picks up Gilmore, first seat called to switch hands either way.

[S019]

The Coalition picks up Gilmore, first seat called to switch hands either way.

Who called this seat? Can't imagine this seat would be called with only 25% of the vote reporting.

The ABC's website, though they retracted it now. Similarly, they called Dickson as a flip a little bit back, but after seeing this call retracted, I'd wait a bit before taking that call as final.

[S019]

North Sydney seems lost, with Zimmerman conceding, second seat lost to the Teals by the Coalition, after MacKellar was lost earlier.