2022 French legislatives

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Their one in Nantes in Loire-Atlantique 6, which is the South of the city; which is quite sociall mixed, some gentrification, some more working class areas, but is one of the stronger parts of the city for the left even if not instinctively the most Green aligned. The PS obviously get Nantes central because of Johanna Rolland, like they get the best of Rennes thanks to Nathalise Appéré. They've also been given some pretty OK rural ones, like néo-ruraux central in the Drôme or the old Trégor Rouge in Côtes-d'Armor.

Nitpick: the apparent EELV seat in the Côtes-d'Armor is not the Trégor Rouge (that's the fourth constituency), but rather Marc Le Fur's seat, the third constituency (Lamballe, Loudéac, the Mené), which is also probably the most hopeless seat for the left in the department. Realistically, the first and fourth constituencies are winnable for the left, all the others are probably longshots.

Anyway, I imagine the real objective for EELV is to win at the very least enough seats to recreate a parliamentary group (so 15) and the number of winnable seats being thrown around is 30, which the upper limit of optimistic projections.

My main interest at the moment which I'm surprised no one else has discussed is how many dissident candidates (mostly PS) there will be and what their weight in their constituencies is. - I imagine there will be quite a few. For example, in Paris-15, Hidalgo ally and ephemeral PS deputy Lamia El Aaraje was passed over in favour of LFI's Danielle Simonnet, and she could run as a relatively strong dissident (she defeated Simonnet in a very low turnout by-election in 2021 which was later annulled).

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Anyone know how/why FI got all of the colonies?

Wondering if theres any rhyme or reason for GE and G.s's seats, also.

Not sure if the overseas are part of the deal or not: in any case, there are two PS incumbents (in Guadeloupe and Réunion) as well as one clearly LFI-affiliated incumbent (Ratenon in La Réunion). But a lot of overseas politics revolve around local parties which have more or less defined affiliations with national parties or at least parliamentary groups (Martinique's MIM, PPM, BPM, Péyi-A etc., Gabriel Serville's Péyi G or the PSG, MDES in Guiana's, La Réunion's old Communists and Huguette Bello's PLR), and of course New Caledonia and French Polynesia are even more sui generis with no real presence of the national left-wing parties, although the nationalists in both countries are close to the national left (the Tavini's deputy, Moetai Brotherson, sits with the GDR group). Given local politics and tensions between the different left-leaning groups in many places, notably Martinique, I'd imagine there will be no alliance (in the form a single leftist candidate) in many places.

GE has two/three incumbents who are all seeking reelection and whose seats are protected by the alliance: party leader and former candidate in the expanded green primary Delphine Batho (ex-PS, former environment minister in 2012-13 turned much more radical since) in the Deux-Sèvres, Hubert Julien-Laferrière (ex-LREM) in Rhône-2 (which as parochialboy pointed out is very good terrain for the left) and famous mathematician Cédric Villani (ex-LREM, not formally a member it seems but close to the party) in Essonne-5. The other seats are all much tougher.

G.s has no incumbents running again (Régis Juanico is retiring in the Loire) and I'm not quite sure who are their most prominent candidates, but Val-de-Marne-11 seems reserved for (ex-PS) senator Sophie Taillé-Polian, one of the two national coordinators of the party (the other, Benjamin Lucas, wanted to run in Nord-2, which has a LFI incumbent, but now doesn't seem to be running). Not all their seats are impossible but besides Val-de-Marne they're quite difficult under current circumstances.

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The presidential majority has released the first wave of candidacies, with 187 names - including incumbents, newcomers and cabinet ministers.

Some highlights:

Government spokesperson Gabriel Attal will seek reelection in Hauts-de-Seine-10

The godawful right-wing education minister Jean-Michel Blanquer finally settles on a candidacy in Loiret-4, where LR incumbent Jean-Pierre Door is not seeking reelection. It's far from great territory for macronismo (Le Pen won in the runoff) and he doesn't have the greatest reputation, but he may yet benefit from the division of the right locally, split between two candidates. He'll also be disappointed that Montargis is nothing like Ibiza.

The godawful right-wing snake interior minister Gérald Darmanin will run in his former seat, Nord-10 (which he held between 2012 and 2016), currently held by an Agir (ex-LR) incumbent, whose future is unclear. Darmanin retains a strong local base in Tourcoing, where he was mayor, so he should win.

Labour minister Elisabeth Borne is running in Calvados-6, vacated by LREM (ex-PRG) incumbent Alain Tourret. Should be in a favourable position, although she has no local base here.

The minister for transformation and the civil service Amélie de Montchalin is running for reelection in Essonne-6.

Secretary of state for European affairs Clément Beaune is running in Paris-7.

Secretary of state for retirement/pensions Laurent Pietraszewski is running for reelection in Nord-11.

The junior minister for public accounts Olivier Dussopt (ex-PS) will seek to regain his old seat, Ardèche-2, where he was reelected - for the PS, against LREM - in 2017, but where his former suppléante-turned-deputy, Michèle Victory, has stayed loyal to the left, unlike him.

Junior minister Brigitte Klinkert is running in Haut-Rhin-1, held by LR. Klinkert, however, was the suppléante to former deputy, now mayor of Colmar, Éric Straumann, until 2020, and has a strong base (she is departmental councillor and she did well in the area in the 2021 regional elections), so she should be in a favourable position.

The junior minister for housing Emmanuelle Wargon is running in Val-de-Marne-8, facing LR incumbent Michel Herbillon, who easily defeated LREM five years ago.

As announced, Manuel Valls is running in the fifth expat constituency (Spain, Portugal, Andorra and Monaco), where the LREM incumbent, who took the seat from Samantha Cazebonne last year after her election to the Senate, is refusing to make way for him and will run as a dissident.

Former Sarkozy-era cabinet minister Éric Woerth (ex-LR), who supported Macron in the presidential election, now has LREM's support for his reelection, seeking a fifth term in Oise-4.

UDI incumbent Thierry Benoit in Ille-et-Vilaine-6, first elected in 2007 and reelected against a LREM candidate in 2017, now has LREM's endorsement.

I don't have time to go through the rest of the list, but while LREM's 'civil society' shtick is still quite well represented among non-incumbent candidates, there's more local elected officials than in 2017 - the mayor of Mende in Lozère, the mayor of Saint-Dié-des-Vosges, the mayor of Mons-en-Baroeul...

There's a good list and map here: https://www.lejdc.fr/paris-75000/actualites/quels-sont-les-candidatures-deja-validees-par-renaissance-horizon-et-le-modem-pour-les-legislatives_14125795/

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I'm seeing Reconquête! at 6-7% in the polls. Is actually getting that much a realistic possibility for them? They have next to no infrastructure, very few well-known candidates and their presidential candidate flopped. I'm not sure there are that many people who are willing to vote for Random Zemmourist #47B.

Yeah, a lot of smart people also agree that Zemmourismo is being artificially inflated/overpolled, and that in the absence of well-known candidates, their 6-7% could look more like 2-4% (probably at the higher end of that: it's quite easy for paper candidates attached to a well-known national movement to get 1-2%). Their only hope at a seat is Guillaume Peltier being reelected in Loir-et-Cher under the zemmourista label (RN doesn't seem to be running a candidate, a small favour which is returned by zemmourismo not running against Panzergirl): not impossible (because of Peltier, Zemmour did quite well in his constituency) but quite difficult.

The second and third wave of presidential majority candidacies dropped, taking them to 502 candidates officially announced.

More cabinet ministers seeking reelection: health minister Olivier Véran (Isère-1), parliamentary relations minister Marc Fesneau (Loir-et-Cher-1), veterans minister Geneviève Darrieussecq (Landes-1), junior minister for foreign trade Franck Riester (Seine-et-Marne-5), junior minister Brigitte Bourguignon (Pas-de-Calais-6), secretary of state for youth Sarah El Haïry (Loire-Atlantique-5), secretary of state for rurality Joël Giraud (Hautes-Alpes-2) and secretary of state for biodiversity Bérangère Abba (Haute-Marne-1). Secretary of state Olivia Grégoire will run in Paris-12. Meanwhile, Nadia Hai, a junior minister and former deputy for Yvelines-11, will instead run on safer ground in the 7th constituency -- LREM unsurprisingly lost the 11th constituency in a very low-turnout by-election in 2020 (to LR) and it's a seat that the left really has no business losing (it was Hamon's seat).

Pécresse ally and LR deputy Robin Reda will run as the macronista candidate in Essonne-7, a seat which he gained from the left in 2017 (narrowly beating LREM in the runoff). In Hauts-de-Seine-6 - Neuilly's constituency and Sarkozy country - LR incumbent Constance Le Grip has also gone over to macronismo. Unsurprisingly, in Alpes-Maritimes-5, ex-LR (now Horizons) incumbent Marine Brenier, close to Nice mayor Christian Estrosi (now a macronista, famously at war with local LR crypto-zemmourista Éric Ciotti), received the macronista endorsement for reelection. In Corse-du-Sud-1, Ajaccio mayor and former deputy Laurent Marcangeli, the leader of the Corsican right who joined Horizons in 2021, will seek to win his old seat back. Surprisingly, however, there will be a macronista candidate against Guillaume Larrivé (Yonne-1), who is perhaps one of the most pro-government deputies still in LR. However, there's still no candidate announced against LR incumbent Damien Abad, rumoured to be a potential minister in the future government, in Ain-5...

The list as it stands: https://mcusercontent.com/b01e87bc72691000eb91829d8/files/d1be7dce-f6f1-bb14-992b-b3bb3bf87cbe/INVESTIS_VAGUE3.pdf

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More precisely, he's standing in Var's 4th constituency, which covers Saint-Tropez, Cogolin, Cavalaire-sur-Mer, Bormes-les-Mimosa and Grimaud along the coast and Vidauban, Le Luc and Lorgues inland. It was Zemmour's best constituency in the Var (and seventh best overall), with 14.65%, but also Panzergirl's second-best in the department with over 32%. Of course, Zemmour won 22.4% in Saint-Tropez (and 21% in Grimaud), basically one of his best result in a commune with over 1,000 voters. Cogolin, a commune that's mostly located inland but with an opening on the Gulf of Saint-Tropez, has a far-right (ex-FN) mayor since 2014 who supported Zemmour (he won 16% there).

Panzergirl's strength, on the other hand, is more concentrated in the arrière-pays (Plaine des Maures and Argens valley) with 41% in Vidauban, 38.6% in Le Luc (which elected a FN mayor in 2014, but they lost the town in 2020 after a tumultuous term) and 38% in Gonfaron - basically the far less glamourous and poorer parts of the Var - although, even with Zemmour, she won strong results in the geriatric coastal towns (31% in Bormes-les-Mimosa, 30% in Le Lavandou).

In 2017, LREM won the seat by about 3,600 votes in a runoff with the FN (54.7%-45.3%); in the first round, LREM won 32.3% against 24.8% for the RN and 17.9% for LR. As in 2017, the RN candidate is Philippe Lottiaux, a parachuté from Avignon who doesn't have particularly strong local roots. RN is very much in a 'Zemmour needs to pay for what he did' mood and definitely won't kindly step aside in his favour, particularly in a strong seat for them too. There is a tiny risk that Lottiaux and Zemmour cancel each other out and deprive the far-right of a spot in the runoff, but the left and LR are probably far too weak to leapfrog either Zemmour or the RN. I think there is a narrow path to a Zemmour victory but it's probably not the likeliest outcome right now.

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Possibly stupid question but are triangulaires, quadrangulaires, & etc. FPTP?

Yeah, whoever wins the most votes wins. Quadrangulaires are basically impossible under current rules and turnout levels: the last one was in 1973, the last election before the qualification threshold was raised from 10% to 12.5% of registered voters.

In 1958, when you only needed 5% of registered voters to qualify and turnout was extremely high, there were 97 quadrangulaires, 9 quinquangulaires and 1 sexangulaire!

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Expat first round results are to be released today, after the online voting (probably the majority of votes) and in-person voting today and yesterday. I voted online last weekend (I doubt my candidate will win over 1% of the vote).

In the 5th constituency, Manuel Valls has been defeated, eliminated in the first round, finishing third behind the NUPES (27.2%) and the macronista incumbent running as a dissident (25.4%). One comment: ROFL.

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Expat results so far

1 (US/Canada)
Lescure (Ensemble, inc.) 35.9%
Roger (NUPES-LFI) 33.4%
Michon (fake greens in 'presidential majority') 10.7%
Bondrille (ASFE - right-leaning expats party) 5.3%
Ouelhadj (Zemmourismo) 5.2%
Caraco (LR-UDI) 4.7%
Adam (RN) 2%
Others below 1%
Turnout: 21.3%

The incumbent, Roland Lescure, well liked by the macronista galaxy but an utterly worthless deputy (particularly during the pandemic), is ahead but his result is quite weak - compared to 2017, when he had 57.5% in the first round - and the NUPES is quite strong, seemingly benefiting from strong results and higher turnout in Canada (compared to the US). As for my vote, well, I think this is the worst result for a candidate I ever voted for, but I have no regrets.

2 (Latin America)
Caroit (Ensemble) 34.6%
Rodriguez (NUPES-LFI) 28.2%
Dupont (LR) 12.2%
Thorailler (Zemmourismo) 6.3%
Laurence (ind. 'ecologist') 6.1%
Biurrun (ASFE/fake greens in 'presidential majority') 4.7%
Lefèbvre (RN) 2.2%
Collard (?) 2.1%
Piat-Guibert (FGR) 1.3%
Others below 1%
Turnout: 14.9%

Macronismo is ahead but down about 10 points from 2017, while NUPES does well.

11 (Asia/Oceania/Russia)
Genetet (Ensemble, inc.) 38.1%
Vidal (NUPES-PCF) 24.8%
Guyon (Zemmourismo) 10.1%
Gentil (ASFE) 9.5%
Vial-Kayser (fake greens in 'presidential majority') 6.7%
Martin (LR) 6.4%
Burlotte (RN) 2.7%
Tapayeva (UPF) 1.7%
Turnout: 28%

The incumbent is ahead but again the macronista vote is down 16 points from 2017 and NUPES wins a surprisingly strong result in a weak constituency for the left.

No results officially in the other constituencies but it would look as if there will be macronismo v. NUPES runoffs everywhere, except in the 8th (Israel, Greece, Turkey, Italy) where the loathsome Meyer Habib (Likud) is narrowly ahead of the macronista candidate. The left seems to be ahead in the 9th constituency (Maghreb and West Africa), leading former cabinet minister Élisabeth Moreno, in what is the left's strongest constituency.

However, macronismo's results are mediocre across the board, and seem to have suffered from the competition from 'local' centre-right candidates and various spoiler fake green 'presidential majority' candidate (from a micro-party called 'Union des centristes et des écologistes', a macronista splinter of the stillborn UDE, itself a splinter of EELV formed back in 2015 by various incompetent slimeball opportunists like the idiot Jean-Vincent Placé). On the other hand, good results for NUPES but they have no reserves, so at best they can hope for one, maybe two, seats.

Thanks to the internet voting option this year, turnout is slightly higher than the absolute lows of 2017 but is still terribly low.

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Unsurprising but interesting fact: Meyer Habib, the likudnik, won 75% of his votes in the two Israeli/West Bank consular constituencies, which accounted for just 30% of the votes cast in the constituency.

He won 72.7% in Jerusalem (including West Bank settlements) and 62.7% in the Israel. He finished third or worse in all other parts of the constituency.

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Huh, so all around weird and messy results in the DTOMs so far. I have to say though, I did expect Ensemble candidates to bomb given Macron's scores in the presidential election. The fact that a few of them are holding out so well is notable, though who knows if it means anything for the metropole. NUPES is also doing fairly well so far.

Overseas results will always seem 'weird and messy' given that they're largely about local political dynamics which we don't know much about, and that turnout is low (around 25% in Guadeloupe). Trying to make too much sense of them, or using them to make predictions, is a fool's errand. With very cursory knowledge of local politics, some of the results are more expected, while others are pretty surprising - the RN qualifying for the runoff in Guadeloupe-3 and probably standing a good chance of winning the seat, LFI finishing second in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon and defeating the candidate of Cap sur l'avenir (the local movement of former cabinet minister and deputy Annick Girardin) and the mess in Guyane-1.

I also note that former Sarkozy-era cabinet minister Marie-Luce Penchard, the daughter of  the late Lucette-Michaux Chevry, the old corrupt chiraquienne political boss, is qualified for the runoff in Guadeloupe-4 (but will probably lose).

On the other side of the world, both New Caledonia runoffs will oppose loyalists to nationalists - it's the first time that the Kanak nationalists qualified for the runoff in the 1st, a loyalist stronghold (Nouméa) - although both seats should remain held by loyalists (of the variety close to macronismo). I note that New Caledonia has been deprived of a third seat since the last redistricting, because Paris doesn't want to create one that would likely elect a nationalist.

On a side note, after voting my conscience and genuine beliefs in the first round, which naturally amounted to less than 1% for my candidate, I voted NUPES in the runoff today - very reluctantly, and I feel dirty for voting for a Mélenchon cultist, but it doesn't matter and I don't really care (besides the incumbent is a useless hack).

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Ifop and Ipsos turnout estimates: 47%

A record low for a first round (48.7% in 2017, it fell to 42.5% in the runoff).

Not particularly good news for democratic institutions, but who cares about those things?

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So far, 2 triangulaires (NUPES-ENS-RN) in Lot-et-Garonne and one (NUPES-ENS-DVG) in Lot. That's already more than in 2017.

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Also a bad defeat for the one Zemmourista incumbent, the loathesome Guillaume Peltier in Loir-et-Cher-2

RN 24.04
ENS 20.28
LR 17.28
NUPES 16.97
R! 13.99

Good riddance to a truly slimy little man.

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Really loved this catfight between the random RN hack lady and Gilbert Collard (ex-RN now Zemmourista) on France2. Keep going guys.

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Florian Philippot, now some anti-vaxx far-right freak, won just 4.62% in Moselle-6, in sixth place.

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Morbihan 4th (Brittany)

Paul MOLAC *
rég. 21 900 -37,65 %

Rozenn GUEGAN
Hor.-Ens. 10 624 -18,26 %

*apparently elected as LREM in 2017???

Molac was first elected in 2012, at the time with the support of EELV and the PS, and reelected by the first round as the LREM candidate. In his first term, he initially sat in the ecolo group, but was part of the more 'right-wing' (pro-Flanby govt.) faction and quit the group in 2016 to join the Socialist group. In his second term, he quit the LREM group in 2018, after dissenting with the majority (from the left) on several major issues, and formed the catch-all 'Libertés et territoires' group (which included the three Corsican nationalists as well as Jean Lassalle, Olivier Falorni).

At the time of his first election in 2012, he was a member of the centre-left regionalist party Union démocratique bretonne (UDB), traditionally the 'strongest' of the Breton regionalist movements and historically allied with EELV and the left. He seems to have left the UDB in 2017 but declared himself attached to the regionalist coalition Régions et peuples solidaires (R&PS) for political financing purposes. In the regional council of Brittany, he leads a three-member regionalist group in the governing (PS-left) majority, alongside notably Christian Troadec, having been reelected last year on the PS-left list in Morbihan.

Good guy, would definitely have voted for him.

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Adrien Quatennens for LFI Gets over 50% in urban Lille but still goes to a runoff. Second candidate after Le Pen I have seen in this situation.

At least three such cases for the NUPES in the 93, including Stéphane Peu (PCF) who misses out on a first round victory despite getting 62.9% in the 2nd constituency because turnout was just 32.8%. On the other hand, Alexis Corbière (ugh) is reelected in the 7th constituency with 62.9%, because turnout was higher (45.9%) - thanks to Montreuil bobos.

NUPES ahead in all of Seine Saint Denis districts and is in a great position to sweep them clean next week.

In the 5th, Jean-Christophe Lagarde's stronghold, he is far behind: 19.3% against 48.1% for Raquel Garrido, but the results are missing his stronghold in Drancy, although it still doesn't look very good for him. Would be glad to see that slimy clientelistic boss out.

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In Alpes-Maritimes 1st (central Nice), cryptofascist LR incumbent Éric Ciotti is ahead with 31.7% and will face Graig Monetti (Ensemble), close to Christian Estrosi (Ciotti's archnemesis for a while now), who got 25.9%. NUPES won 20.4%.

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Sophia Chikirou and Sarah Legrain elected in Paris 6 and 16.

So, NUPES has elected 3 MPs in the first round, and Ensemble just 1 MP.

4 for NUPES - Corbière in the 93, and three in Paris (two of them non-incumbents in LREM-held seats)

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This map is useless and misleading, but whatever:



Probably won't make too many maps because I'm less interested and the far more interesting Colombian election is next weekend.

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Is it possible to get a breakdown of the 11 NUPES dissidents? Ie are they mostly ex-Socialist Party MP’s or something else?

Actual dissidents I can count in metro France:

David Habib, PS incumbent in Pyrénées-Atlantiques-3. Leads with 36.6%, runoff against NUPES (20.6%). No presidential majority candidate.

David Taupiac, PS dissident in Gers-2. Leads with 24.2%, runoff against LREM (19.4%). Heir of retiring three-term PS incumbent Gisèle Biémouret, among the dissidents supported by regional president Carole Delga, opposed to the NUPES.

Christophe Proença, PS dissident in Lot-2. In third place with 23.2% behind NUPES (23.7%) and LREM incumbent (23.7%) but qualified for a triangulaire. Supported by Carole Delga and former deputy and former PS Midi-Pyrénées regional president Martin Malvy. Will he withdraw? The tradition of désistement républicain wants the weaker left-wing candidate to withdraw from the runoff in favour of the leading left-wing candidate, but this tradition has been broken increasingly often.

Laurent Panifous, PS dissident in Ariège-2. Trails with 21.8%, runoff against 29.1% for the LFI-NUPES incumbent. Among those supported by Carole Delga.

Dominique Potier, PS incumbent in Meurthe-et-Moselle-5. Leads with 44%, runoff against RN (27.4%). Supported by the NUPES, but he refused the label. Labelled as DVG by the MOI.

Olivier Falorni, PRG incumbent in Charente-Maritime-1. Leads with 29%, runoff against NUPES (23.4%). Forever famous as the guy who defeated Ségolène in that epic election in 2012. Not really a dissident as he doesn't sit in the Socialist group - he is in the catch-all Libertés et territoires group - and defines himself as 'free and independent' who is neither in the opposition or with the government. Marie Nédellec, DVG candidate supported by Jean-François Fountaine, the DVG mayor of La Rochelle (who narrowly defeated Falorni in the 2020 municipal election), won 7.4%.

Bertrand Petit, PS dissident in Pas-de-Calais-8. Trails with 22.5%, runoff against RN (27.5%). Vice-president of the departmental council and local mayor. The LREM incumbent was eliminated, finishing third.

Benjamin Saint-Huile, PS dissident in Nord-3. Trails with 18.7%, runoff against RN (31.2%). Mayor of Jeumont, president of the Maubeuge agglomeration and regional councillor.

Azzédine Taïbi, PCF dissident in Seine-Saint-Denis-4. Trails with 21.4%, runoff against NUPES (36.1%), whose candidate is also from the PCF (the retiring deputy is Marie-George Buffet, the PCF's 2007 presidential candidate). He is the mayor of Stains and departmental councillor. The official NUPES-PCF candidate was Buffet's suppléante.

Virginie de Carvalho, PCF dissident in Seine-Saint-Denis-11. Trails with 15.2%, runoff against NUPES incumbent Clémentine Autain (46.2%). She is the first deputy to François Asensi, the DVG (ex-PCF) mayor of Tremblay-en-France since 1991 and former deputy until 2017. Asensi had supported Autain, his former suppléante, in 2017 but not this year. Also supported by Stéphane Gatignon, the former mayor of Sevran (ex-EELV).

Lamia El Aaraje, PS dissident in Paris-15. Trails with 17.9%, runoff against NUPES (47.3%). Famous case and controversy which has been discussed before.

Bizarre cases:

Joël Aviragnet, PS incumbent in Haute-Garonne-8. Leads with 28.7%, runoff against RN (21.8%). Very close to Carole Delga, who supported him and served on his campaign. Was initially the NUPES candidate, but was dis-endorsed, at least by LFI and EELV, in favour of a EELV dissident (who won 17.5%). His campaign lit used the NUPES logo but not as prominently as most NUPES candidates... For this reason, the MOI counted him as DVG, not NUPES.

Hervé Saulignac, PS incumbent in Ardèche-1. Leads with 38.3%, runoff with RN (23.3%). Officially supported by NUPES initially, but he is very lukewarm towards them, so the MOI counted him as DVG for this reason. His campaign lit did not use any logos, or even any of the NUPES' colours, and just presented him as the 'candidate of the PS and the left united'.

Valérie Rabault, PS incumbent in Tarn-et-Garonne-2. Leads with 33.3%, runoff against RN (22.4%). President of the PS group in the National Assembly since 2018, claims to have refused the prime ministership in May. Officially labelled as NUPES by the MOI, but basically dis-endorsed by LFI and the PCF, who refused to support her. She did not use the NUPES logo in her campaign lit or posters, but did use the V in her first name stylized exactly like the V in the NUPES logo...

Some defeats:

Jérôme Lambert, ex-PS incumbent in Charente-3 since 1997 and grand-nephew of François Mitterrand. Defeated with 17.9% in fourth, with NUPES in third (19.5%) and also not qualified, so a seat lost for the left. Lambert has been a pretty useless deputy in spite of being there forever and also controversial: besides some scandals, he also was one of the few PS deputies to vote against same-sex marriage and adoption in 2013, he supported the Manif pour tous nonsense and raised eyebrows for his trips to Syria to meet Bashar el-Assad in 2015 or his 'election observation' trips with far-rightists to Russia and Crimea. Given these controversies, many LGBT+ activists and members of LFI and EELV strongly opposed his initial endorsement by NUPES and he was finally not endorsed by the PS and hence the NUPES.

Sylvie Tolmont, PS incumbent in Sarthe-4. Defeated in fourth (15.5%), with NUPES leading (21.9%) the RN (21.3%).

Sylvia Pinel, PRG incumbent and former cabinet minister in Tarn-et-Garonne-2. Defeated in third (20.2%), though ahead of NUPES (18.9%), creating a RN-LREM runoff.

In Sarthe-2, PS incumbent Marietta Karamanli is leading and the runaway favourite (36.5%). Not too keen on the NUPES - she didn't use its logos in her campaign lit - she did easily beat a PS dissident candidacy backed by Stéphane Le Foll (6.7%)

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Also noteworthy: in Montpellier, where the left is famous for pretty insane infighting for like a decade now, the PS dissident candidate in the 2nd constituency (bizarrely gerrymandered constituency that is a left-wing stronghold), Fatima Bellaredj, backed by the PS mayor of Montpellier Michaël Delafosse, won only 11.9% and finished third. She also had the support of Carole Delga and most of the old local PS apparatchiks like Kléber Mesquida, president of the departmental council. The official NUPES candidate won 40.4% and will win against LREM in the runoff easily. The ex-LFI incumbent Muriel Ressiguier also ran as a dissident after she was refused the LFI endorsement because she faces workplace harassment complaints, and won just 5% (she also seems to have been on bad terms with LFI because of old disagreements in the madly insane 2020 municipal elections).

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Was the 25.66% disappointing for the Nupes?
It's smaller than the sum the parties that built the Nupes had in 2017.

No it's not? PS, PCF and FI together had 21.19% while the loose "Ecologist" label (which was scattered between EELV and a bunch of other parties, some of which are with Macron now) got 4.3%, so at most we're talking 25.49%. But that's obviously not a sound way to count. The aggregate left+ecologists today is at 32.03%, compared to 27.56% in 2017.

On the flip side, a lot of those labelled as 'écologistes' now are probably not really left-wing, or their electorate is not really left-wing - it includes the various 'centrist'/'apolitical' scam greens like Governatori's current bunch of cranks and misfits (Écologie au centre), with their soft anti-vaxx rhetoric, allied this time with Corinne Lepage's Cap21 and a remnant faction of the UDE (remember them?), as well as 'Tous Unis pour le Vivant' which includes Waechter's old MEI, the old scammy right-wing 'Le Trèfle' and various animalist groups. The former made a point of running where NUPES candidates weren't from EELV and the latter claims to have won a bit over 100,000 votes. Both can generally can get a fair amount of votes from random low-info voters who see their green-coloured ballot papers, or who like the sound of 'apolitical centrist ecologists!', so not particularly left-wing people.

You also have the Animalist Party, which is legitimate and not a scam, but whose electorate is really not all that similar to the traditional left-wing urban EELV electorate and really screams out 'disgruntled protest voters who think animals are cute' (their best results all came from northern France), not really easily classifiable as left-wing. They claim over 255,700 votes.

As for NUPES' results, they're good in the current context but not particularly amazing. Mélenchon, Jadot, Roussel and Hidalgo won 30.6% in April, and the NUPES result alone is comparable to the 2017 totals, which, obviously, weren't particularly good. I think a lot of people have just gotten so used to the left being hopelessly divided and losing badly in nearly every election in the past 5+ years that the result of the united left looks more amazing than it really is - although, well, at least in terms of seats, their result will be amazing compared to what the left has become accustomed to since 2015, and particularly compared to 2017 (when the left lost seats they had no business losing and stupidly missed out on many runoffs because they all insisted on running alone), and definitely a good base from which to rebuild the left into a winning force (I'm not betting on that though).

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Not looking particularly good for Justine Bénin, the newly appointed secretary of state for the sea, in Guadeloupe-2. If defeated, she'd need to leave cabinet.

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On those disastrous numbers, I assume that vote transfers to macronismo were terrible, much like in 2017, except that they had much less leeway than five years ago, hence this trainwreck.