Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[wbrocks67]

I do wonder if the Governors race in 2022 will be Lean D.

Kemp will win reelection very handily by double digits.

have you seen his recent #s

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, it looks like Bordeaux will likely avoid a runoff. Thank god

[wbrocks67]

What do moderates/independents in GA think of Kemp though? I feel like they'd be way more sour on Perdue than Kemp. Makes me think Kemp would be stronger against Abrams than Perdue would be.

[wbrocks67]

Perdue is unhinged

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1467871303311015944

[wbrocks67]

People are really overestimating Abrams here.

The GOP is having a hot ass mess primary right now and Abrams is the one being overestimated? Now sis.

[wbrocks67]

People are really overestimating Abrams here.

Agreed. Anecdotes don't decide elections, but a decent share of people I know in Georgia who voted for Biden, Warnock, and Ossoff don't care for Abrams after she refused to concede the 2018 election. Granted, these people largely are country club Republican types who live in Buckhead and Sandy Springs who retain some Republican affinity, but most of them did vote for Abrams 3 years ago.

So they voted for Biden, Warnock, and Ossoff ... and Abrams in 2018, but they don't know about the specific circumstances in 2018 that happened to Abrams that caused the issue that she raised? That sounds... very suspect

[wbrocks67]

Yeah the thing for Perdue is that he just isn't credible - he's got Trumps endorsement but he's also literally 1/2 of the reason that GOP lost the senate in January, so.

[wbrocks67]

Perdue's legacy is going to be even more embarrassing if he loses this primary.

[wbrocks67]

Abrams should not be cocky either.

Tossup until the last vote is counted, and white Atlanta suburban voters could flip back to Republicans especially if Biden/Harris's approval ratings sink....even if Biden picks a Black woman to the Supreme Court if Breyer retires next year, the white female vote could offset the Black vote gains....

A lot of Republican voters will want to prove their not "racist" by electing Herschel....Herschel could help Perdue and GAGOPers...

Who is getting cocky?

[wbrocks67]

This is just so embarrassing for Perdue. Imagine debasing yourself like this.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1507356422987829254

[wbrocks67]

Did we ever get any fundraising reports for Q1? I Feel like we've hear nothing from the Abrams side or the Kemps side? (or even Perdue?)

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult has Kemp +9 approval

https://morningconsult.com/2022/04/28/governor-approval-ratings-2022-election/

[wbrocks67]

Running people who just lost in the previous cycle is dumb, let alone against a popular incumbent in a primary. 

I wouldn't quite call Kemp "popular". That Morning Consult poll is the first one to show him in positive territory at all, isn't it?

[wbrocks67]

This is probably the worst state to compare partisan turnout to each other considering what many have said in this thread - that many Dems are crossing over to vote R.

That being said, I'm surprised it's even 43% D, which suggests GA is continuing its evolution.

[wbrocks67]

This is probably the worst state to compare partisan turnout to each other considering what many have said in this thread - that many Dems are crossing over to vote R.

That being said, I'm surprised it's even 43% D, which suggests GA is continuing its evolution.

This is insanity. Turnout is hard to compare in this state but we are going to do it anyways to show that an R advantage is actually a sign of a D trend? I also expect Georgia to continue evolving but it won’t be because of this lol

Also, the Election Day vs early voting is so lopsided that it’s shocking R’s could lead anywhere in early voting. Any potential surge won’t be recognized until tomorrow

You're misreading what people are saying. With so many crossover D voters, you'd expect actual D votes to be way less than 43%, even in early vote. So just saying that the fact that it's even that high all things compared is not bad at all for Ds.

[wbrocks67]

For everyone speculating about crossover participation, we actually have data from last week on this (I'm doubtful the proportions changed all that much since).

AJC election guru Mark Niesse crunched the numbers and determined about 7% of Georgia voters who have cast GOP ballots so far previously pulled a Democratic ballot two years ago.

State election figures show smaller numbers of Republican voters from 2020 are voting in the Democratic primary this year. Less than 1% of Democratic voters participated in the 2020 GOP primary.

This would be enough to shift the 56.6-43.4 composition to roughly 53-47. 

So it’s not like 35% of democrats joining the GOP primary like some on here would say lol.

I would argue that a small portion of these crossovers could be legitimate swing voters who happened to change their voting preference recently. Even assuming that’s not the case, 53-47 early vote means that the GOP will run away with the majority of primary votes

Nobody was acting as if it was 35%. But 7% is substantial, considering a 53-47 early vote is even less than the R/D EV composition in 2018.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like we're on track for a 60% R, 40% D primary split. If the crossover share from EV holds for ED as well, we're basically looking at an effective turnout comparable to the EV distribution (56.5% R, 43.5% D).

Not great for Democrats, but not a death sentence, either: basically right on the mantle of feasibility for November (my internal tipping point was if the share of the electorate pulling GOP ballots was >61%, then it's over for Democrats in November).

Given the amount of crossover vote and the nonexistent races on the Dem side makes the comparisons moot, though.

[wbrocks67]

You really wonder if Geoff Duncan may have been able to pull through too if he ran again.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1544769988451500035

[wbrocks67]

Abrams raised $9.8M from May 1-June 30, compared to Kemp's $3.8m.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/abrams-builds-huge-financial-edge-over-kemp-in-2022/AOJSW2OBBRAJHMQCVFQ2YDWV4A/

[wbrocks67]

The far right policies of Kemp strike again. This is the type of sh**t that I think people only realize once it actually happens to something in reality.

https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1554221438122528769

[wbrocks67]

I saw an Abrams conference this evening, and she went hard against Kemp (IMO, rightfully so) about the Music Midtown cancellation.    The business loss is significant, and it's not going to help Kemp with the youth vote.

It's a big deal, and the gun issue is having traction here.  Kemp is starting to lose his luster and the constant reshowing of the spring 2018 commercial of his aiming the gun at the teenager  is helping Abrams to close the gap.

Abrams really only play here is to continue painting Kemp as out of touch with the rest of GA with his policies on guns, abortion, etc. She needs to really hit hard to wash away the 'he's not that bad' schtick that he got from the primary vs. Perdue.

And things like abortion and guns will likely only be visible to voters when they have real life implications, such as this festival being cancelled.

[wbrocks67]

So we are on like day 3 of the Midtown fiasco and I have not seen a peep from Kemp and his team? Abrams is smartly slamming this day in and day out and Kemp doesn't seem to be responding or trying to defend himself.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1554769049262821376

[wbrocks67]

For the first time, it feels like the Abrams campaign is firing on all cylinders are out for blood the last few days. Kemp's campaign seems to be caught flat footed by it all.

[wbrocks67]

The mess continues. Why is Kemp being so silent during all of this? He has not hit back at Abrams or any of these govs at all.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1555154080128831488