Rank seats in likeliness to flip

[Deano963]

1 - PA
2 - MT
3 - OH
4 - RI
5 - MO
6 - NJ
7 - TN
8 - VA
9 - MD
10 - WA
11 - AZ
12 - MN
13 - MI
14 - NV
15 - NE

16 - 33 do not have even the most remote chance of flipping.

[Deano963]

1. OH
2. NJ
3. MT
4. RI
5. TN
6. PA
7. MO
8. MD
9. VA
10. MN
11. WA
12. MI
13. AZ
14. NE
15. VT (Idk y)
No other show flickers of competiveness

This is hilarious.

[Deano963]

1. OH
2. NJ
3. MT
4. RI
5. TN
6. PA
7. MO
8. MD
9. VA
10. MN
11. WA
12. MI
13. AZ
14. NE
15. VT (Idk y)
No other show flickers of competiveness

This is hilarious.

Typical liberal answer, don't say why you don't feel it's correct or offer a rebuttal, simply call it hilarious

Nothing I said goes complete against the facts, unlike MS being no. 15

Ok genius here are your reasons. First of all, the fact you have Ohio ranked #1 is absurd:

Brown is only leading by 6 points AT MOST according to the most recent polls and he lags behind Dewine in cash by about $3 million..... compare that to Tester who is leading Burns by 9, and Burns has the worst re-elect numebrs of any incumbent Senator in the country, far worse than Dewine's.

The fact that you have NJ ranked #2 when the largest lead Kean had held is 4 points (which was still within the margin of error) and he trails by at least $6 million is absurd. Only a complete nutcase right-wing partisan would have this race ranked #2. Contrast this race to PA, where Bob Casey has held at least 20 leads in the polls that are well outside of the margin of error. Casey is close to Santorum in COH after Ricky blew a couple million on his summer ad blitz that pulled him up a littel bit, and he STILL trails by over 10.

Which brings me to you having PA ranked #6. LOL. Ok genius, if you really think there 5 seats that will flip before PA does, how about we bet on that? Don't get excited b/c Santorum has pulled to within 6 or 7 in a couple of polls. That last poll showed him behind by 18 again. This race will be won or lost in the Philly suburbs, where Rendell's turnout machine is going to ensure Santorum's fate.

Your completely idiotic rankings show either 1) someone who is completely and unbelievably ignorant of the reality and facts about these races or 2)someone who is letting their partisan blinders interfere with reason.

RI more likely to flip than PA? Ok genius, time for you to stop taking whatever prescription pain killers you are on.

How about you show me some facts as to why TN is going to flip before PA does? Typical neocon moron reasoning - you want a certain seat to flip but you have no evidence to support it, so justcall the realistic person who uses real facts a liberal. Very intelligent.

[Deano963]

Nothing I said goes complete against the facts, unlike MS being no. 15

I didn't have MS ranked 15. Good job being able to read.

[Deano963]

Which brings me to you having PA ranked #6. LOL. Ok genius, if you really think there 5 seats that will flip before PA does, how about we bet on that? Don't get excited b/c Santorum has pulled to within 6 or 7 in a couple of polls. That last poll showed him behind by 18 again. This race will be won or lost in the Philly suburbs, where Rendell's turnout machine is going to ensure Santorum's fate.

There were three polls out in a week - one had him down eight, one had him down five and the other had him losing by eighteen. Outlier? Yes.

Don't bet on Rendell's turnout numbers. The race is looking very good for him which could be bad news. If people say that Rendell is up big they might not turnout. This race is not all about the SE.

Well, considering that an 18-point gap is just about the same gap this race has had for more than a year (evidenced by 20+ polls), yes, I would call the other polls outliers.

Your logic is shaky at best. That's what a turnout machine does, it turns out people to the polls no matter how the candidate is doing. Considering that this same turnout operation has worked for him several before, I see no reason to come to the unrealistic conclusion as you do that it just won't work this year for no particular reason. Again, your argument is pretty baseless. If people supposedly, as you say, might stay home b/c Rendell is polling so well, just what is going to drive Santorum voters to the polls when he is dong so poorly?? If you're going to use that silly argument, it works both ways.

What gets me about you Santorum supporters is that you guys all seem to be really grasping for straws when trying to argue why he is somehow going to win in your opinions. Every argument I've heard is the most hair-brained nonsense I've ever come accross.

[Deano963]

Well, considering that an 18-point gap is just about the same gap this race has had for more than a year (evidenced by 20+ polls), yes, I would call the other polls outliers.

Oh, so because a polls way back showed a double digit lead for Casey that means Santorum cannot come back no matter what? Basically, there is no way for this race to narrow, right? Wow, thank you. Respond to my post when you get a clue.

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Things don't work out the way people want it sometime, little boy.

 

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Baseless? Uh, intelligent people know that when a candidate is so far ahead people are more reluctant to turn out. Polls show Santorum with the momentum. People turn out when things are favoring their candidate while there is more of a risk of people staying home when you're so far ahead. Anyone would tell you this but you refuse to listen.

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Ok, let's say you are right. I want you to explain for me the 1990 and 1992 House races. The man has a history of running campaigns that he should have never won. Explain to me why the idea that Santorum is a far better campaigner and has the ability to come back (history proves this while you have no proof on your side) is so "hair-brained." Also address the issue of Casey being a weak campaigner and someone that throws away a tough race (again, I have proof and you don't).

I look forward to your entertaining response.

Phil once again you prove yourself to be the biggest hack on this entire forum. You have no facts or data to back up your idiotic claims so all you do is make up wild theories and call me names when I throw out a fact like how Rendell's turnout machine is going to work again this year. And your response?

"Things don't work out the way people want it sometime, little boy."

Highly intelligent argument there, Hack. Way to show yourself to be a head-in-the-sand partisan moron. How about an argument with some substance Hack???

Your theory about people staying home when their candidate is ahead is asinine. I challenge you to give a few examples and prove where this has happened before to someone in Santorum's position. Until then, it's just baseless ranting, which is all you ever do......

Address the issue of Rendell winning by 20+ points in the polls and how he is going to have about $10 million to fund a GOTV effort for Democrats up and down the ticket. That's another fact, I haven't seen you provide one yet.

[Deano963]

Rick Santorum won the Philly Suburbs in 1994 and 2000. Do you really think he can win with Rendell on the top of the ticket?

No, he won't, but that doesn't mean that he will lose.

Um...yes it does Hack. EVERY single professional political analyst I have read on the PA Senate race has said that his race will be decided in the Philly suburbs. I don't know how to make that any more plain to you. If you ever bothered to read any professional analysis on this race instead of just bloviating your ignorant views on it, you might know this. The Philly burbs voted for Kerry over Bush, Rendell's base is there and he has a proven turnout operation, and Santorum will win them this year when hell freezes over.

[Deano963]

Phil once again you prove yourself to be the biggest hack on this entire forum. You have no facts or data to back up your idiotic claims so all you do is make up wild theories and call me names when I throw out a fact like how Rendell's turnout machine is going to work again this year. And your response?

"Things don't work out the way people want it sometime, little boy."

Highly intelligent argument there, Hack. Way to show yourself to be a head-in-the-sand partisan moron. How about an argument with some substance Hack???

Substance being that machines don't always win. Plus, you know very little about this state and its politics to begin with so don't throw out arguments like "the machine will turn out" and "Santorum is hated by Pennsylvania!" when you don't understand things.

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Are you kidding? You don't think that enough voters have stayed home in key races resulting in a loss for a favored candidate? You will never learn.

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What does that have to do with my point? I said that Rendell being up hurts him because people think the race is over and might not feel the need to vote.

Listen, I feel pretty sorry for you, kid. You must be just getting involved and don't understand how certain things can happen. Candidates can be favored to win yet collapse when their voters don't see the urgency to turn out. That's something you refuse to grasp because you are new to the game and seemingly very immature.

I have provided several facts concerning this race. I brought up specifics about Santorum's past campaigns that mirror this race but you, insisting on being a blind ideological and partisan hack motivated by a hatred for Santorum, refuse to accept these findings. I look forward to some better debates with you down the road...you know...real debates where you can bring up some good points. In the meantime, read up on what you're talking about.

The Philly burbs voted for Kerry over Bush, Rendell's base is there and he has a proven turnout operation, and Santorum will win them this year when hell freezes over.

Santorum does not need the Philly suburbs to win. "You need to win the suburban areas of Philadelphia" is the biggest myth in PA politics and this year will prove that. By the way, don't lecture me on how Santorum won't win that area when I was one of the first to admit that. It is obvious to everyone, too, so don't raise the point as if you are telling us something new.

Thanks for all of those wonderful examples and facts you used in your senseless ranting Hack. They really helped prove your point, if you even had one that is. Your posts are so incredibly stupid and juvenile it pains me to read them and makes me even more confident that your predictions are worthless.