Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[Diouf]

The already agreed upon referendum is on Denmark changing its opt-out on justice and home affairs to an opt-in. The EU-positive parties (Liberal, Conservative, Social Liberal, Social Democrat, SPP) have made an agreement on which policies Denmark will then opt-in on; these are basically on crime prevention with Europol as the big sell, but not anything to do with asylum. The referendum will be at the latest in the first quarter of 2016.

DPP then wants a whole bunch of other referendums. Together with the Liberal Alliance and the Red-Green Alliance they have said that they will unleash a referendum bonanza on EU. When sovereignty is ceded a referendum shall be held, unless a supermajority of 149 MPs vote in favour. However, According to the Danish constitution 60 MPs, which the three parties now have, can force a referendum on policy questions. This has only been used one time, in 1963 when the Liberals and the Conservatives forced a referendum on a number of unpopular land laws, which the public then rejected. Since then the normal system/government parties have agreed not to use it and let each other rule as it would create mayhem if the opposition forced referendums everytime they disagreed. The three Eurosceptic parties now want to use this clause to get through several EU referendums on issues where Denmark does not cede sovereignty, the first example being the banking union. However, some constitutional experts say that the clause cannot be used for questions regarding international cooperation, so its doubtful whether it will happen.

The DPP have mentioned several different things they want referendums on, and the exact form change a bit every time. Earlier they talked about a referendum on introducing a welfare opt-out, which would make Denmark decide on which welfare benefits other EU citizens should get. Since the welfare area is a part of David Camerons' negotiations, then it seems like the DPP basically just think it's easier, both to explain and in negotiations with the EU, to make an exact copy of the British referendum. DPP will campaign for staying in in such a referendum they say.

A referendum on Danish EU membership is very unlikely, and Denmark leaving the EU is even more unlikely. The EU-positive parties will never accept such a referendum, and I'm not even sure the Liberal Alliance will want one.
Only the Red-Green Alliance is in favour of leaving the EU, and even they usually keep quiet with it, probably because a significant part of their voters are not that Eurosceptic. A poll last year showed 68.7% in favour of staying in the EU, and 21.6% wanting to leave. A Brexit and/or a complete collapse of Greece might change the attitudes somewhat, but still big support for staying in. However, there is of course a deep dissatisfaction regarding the whole welfare benefits question, andDenmark would certainly vote yes to a welfare opt-out in the almost equally unlikely case such a referendum would ever be held. Most of the EU-positive parties, with the exception of the Social Liberals, wants changes to this anyway.

[Diouf]

The preferred government among voters:
Norstat poll for altinget.dk

Liberals - DPP 26 %
Social Democrats 16%
Social Democrats - Social Liberals - SPP 14%
Liberal - Conservative 13%
Social Democrat - Social Liberal 9%
Liberals 4 %
Don't know 17%

Ironically, the two least preferred government are the two most likely outcomes.

And the least preferred of those options ended up becoming reality. Lars Løkke Rasmussen has just announced that he will form a Liberal-only government.
This means that the government will have to conduct broad negotiations with several parties all the time. That the government only consists of the Liberals will make it more maneuverable though, as it will not need much internal discussion before negotiating.

There is much discussion about the stability of such a narrow government, and many point to the precedent of the 1973 Liberal government which only lasted 14 months. However, I don't see any of the three other blue bloc parties as willing to tear down the government, which the maverick Progress Party did in 1975 or as Geert Wilders did in the Netherlands. There was some discussion in the same way about the Red-Green Alliance, and despite many government policies they did not agree on, they never took it down. The Liberal Alliance has been very outspoken about not ending as the Red-Green Alliance, but I have a hard time seeing them follow through on it.
So if any party is to ensure the resignation of the government at some point, I think it will be the Liberals themselves deciding to do so. But I think that will take massive policy disappointments for that to happen. Also I think the Liberals will change their leader before the next election, which will probably not happen that quickly. If they look like getting a massive seat increase and stay in government, they could call an early election, but if it is too soon, it could look too opportunistic and irresponsible.
In regards to stability, the biggest problem is perhaps defections, and they are probably less likely with a narrow Liberal government than with a Liberal-DPP government, where a Liberal MP could have made the jump to the Social Liberals due to the harsh stance on the EU and refugees, MEP Jens Rohde would have been a good guess as well, or DPPs defecting to the Social Democrats due to less investments in the public sector than expected.

It will be interesting to see who become ministers in the coming days. Both in terms of the relationsship between Løkke and his deputy Kristian Jensen, and whether/how many ministers Løkke will pick from outside the Liberal group of MPs, perhaps even some of those who failed to get elected. The question is how big a role Jensen will get (Finance Minister or not?) and which and how many roles each of their supporters will get( for example whether Løkke supporter Søren Gade, who had a brilliant personal election, will be in the government and get a significant role). I would not completely rule out that there is a Blair/Brown agreement between Løkke and Jensen.

[Diouf]

So the next Danish government will only have the support of the party that came in third? That just seems wrong.

The next Danish government will only consist of the party that came in third. It will have the support of a majority in parliament.
It is basically the result of the bloc idea where the parties unite around two different PM candidates. So even when the results then change the bloc dynamic significantly, you have to stick to that promise. Also with Conservative and Liberal Alliance support, the Løkke part of the Blue Bloc is bigger than the Thulelsen Dahl part. You can't rule out that there will be three PM candidates the next time; perhaps the Blue Bloc wil simply state that the leader of the biggest party in the bloc will form the government. The Liberals will obviously prefer that not to happen, but it is basically the decision of the Conservatives and the Liberal Alliance whether to allow it.

It does look weird with the third party, who lost the most seats, in charge, but at the end of the day, the situation is not really different from a scenario with the Liberals on 37 and the DPP on 34. The Liberals will still have been the big loser, and would still have to work hard to find a majority for each of its proposals.

[Diouf]

So, when Venstre is as good as wiped out at the next election, who will benefit? Liberal Annoyance?

Well, if they are wiped out, then I guess one of the best predictors are the 2011 to 2015 movements. They lost 18% of their voters to the DPP, 9% to the Liberal Alliance, 4% to the Social Democrats and 3% to the Conservatives. But it will obviously depend on why they are wiped out.

It should just be remembered that in the 1973 precedent of a small Liberal government being formed after a poor election despite only being the third largest party, they almost doubled in the 1975 election from 22 to 42 seats. Also the PM's party has gained at the last two elections despite the bloc overall going back. Lars Løkke Rasmussen is very unpopular, so if his numbers rebound or he is replaced during the term, then that alone should make the Liberal rise. Some voters will also be disappointed in the DPP for not going into government and return to the "responsible" party. Furthermore, at this election the Liberals campaigned on zero growth in the public sector; a policy that was launched all the way back in 2012 when the economic crisis was way deeper. Therefore they probably ended up too far to the right of their normal voters economically, and especially the DPP gained from promising a bigger public sector. First of all, the Liberals might have a hard time getting zero growth through the parliament, and secondly, they will probably go for a more centrist position at the next election where there will be some growth in the public sector, at least if the economy grow as expected. That should make it likely for them to rise than fall at the next election.
You can make the arguments against as well; they will single-handedly get the blame for everything that goes wrong, it looks like the Liberal Alliance and the Conservatives have forced top tax cuts into the government programme, and especially in the somewhat unlikely case that they become reality, they might cost those centrist voters. If the situation become too messy as the government is not seen as competent, then that could hurt them as well.
Overall, I would think there's a bigger chance for a rise than a fall.

[Diouf]

Will there be official "toleration deals" with Liberal Alliance and the Conservatives in order for them to support the government on the most important issues?

No, but some of the wishes of all the supporting parties have been included in the government programme despite not being in the Liberals' election programme as an sort of expression of goodwill and respect towards them.

The programme includes some growth in the public sector which the DPP wants. The exact amount is not specified, but the Liberal campaigned on zero growth while the Conservatives and the Liberal Alliance wanted cuts.
The Liberal and the DPP campaign focused on lowering taxes for people with low incomes, but the Conservatives and the Liberal Alliance want lower taxes in the top as well, so the programme suggests lowering the top tax rate from 15 to 10%.

Other important parts of the government programme:

The first priority will be to tighten asylum policies. The main policy is to (re-)introduce a lower starting benefit for people who get asylum instead of giving them the full cash benefits. The idea is that the benefits will rise if they for example pass Danish courses. Other policies will be included, and they will probably already be introduced in parliament on Friday.

The referendum on changing the opt-out on justice and home affairs to an opt-in will be held before Christmas. Some still suggest that the DPP could then join the government after the referendum, but I still doubt that will happen.

More controls at the border, but within the Schengen rules. The DPP obviously wanted the latter part of the sentence scrapped.

Lowering development aid to 0.7% of GDP

"Make it pay to work". A cap will be put on the total amount of benefits you can get from the state; i.e. when adding cash benefits, housing benefits, day care subsidies etc. At the same time taxes will be lowered for people in work with low incomes.

Some parts of the previous goverment's train investment fund will be looked at, and perhaps some of the least cost-efficient investments will be channeled into building or expanding the motorway net instead.

More state-owned agencies will be moved from Copenhagen to other parts of Denmark

A subsidy to the workman part of private house improvements, e.g. better windows which can lower the energy use, will be re-introduced.

[Diouf]

The new Government



The government consist of 17 ministers, whereof 5 are women, so basically the same female percentage as the government it replaced.
Løkke's deputy Kristian Jensen, just to the right of him in the picture, is the new Foreign Minister, while the experienced, but not exactly universally well-liked Claus Hjort Frederiksen is the new Minister of Finance.



The flamboyant Søren Pind, who used the above election poster, is the new Minister of Justice, while the hardliner Inger Støjberg, just in front of Pind and to the right of Jensen, is the new Minister for Foreigners, Integration and Housing.

Two of those I regard among the most talented Liberal politicians have become ministers as well. Sophie Løhde, in the white dress, will be the new Minister of Health and the Elderly, while the theologian and farmer son Esben Lunde Larsen, with the glasses furthest to the right, is the new Minister for Education and Research.

The biggest surprise and only non-MP minister is the new Minister of Employment Jørn Neergaard Larsen, who have until now been the CEO of the The Confederation of Danish Employers.

[Diouf]

Helle or Pia?



The first job for the new parliament is to elects its new Speaker; a quite prestigious post which is normally filled by an experienced statesman. Currently it seems like there will be two candidates; one from each of the biggest parties. The former leader of the DPP, Pia Kjærsgaard, should be the favourite since the Blue Bloc is the biggest. The Liberals have already stated their support for her, but the Liberal Alliance and the Conservatives say that they haven't made up their mind yet. Most likely, they hope to get some kind of policy concession in exchange for their support, but I believe that will be quite unusual and somewhat childish. I expect them to fall in line behind Kjærsgaard at some time.
However, if they do not, then, surprisingly, the former PM Helle Thorning-Schmidt will likely be the new Speaker. She is the Social Democrat candidate, and will most likely get the support from all other members of the Red Bloc as well.

Four deputy speakers are elected as well, so the loser will in all likelyhood become 1. Deputy Speaker.

[Diouf]

Reintroducing Hjort as MoF seems like a mistake.  He is yesterdays man and damaged goods and the party has younger people capable of doing the job.

Five women is pathetic - even given it is the Libs we are talking about. They should be able to find more - especially if they had included more non-MPs. Wonder if Loekke tried to lure Lykke Friis back.

It is also a clear middle finger to Kristian Jensen. While it may be prestigious to be Minister of Foreign Affairs (Deputy PM is a ludicrous title), he would have had much more real power as MoF - and it would have been a more obvious post for a man with his experience and background.

Kjaersgaard vs. HTS is interesting. It will test the 90 seat majority right from the start. I doubt LA and Cons can seriously vote against Pia K. It would undermine their relationship to DPP before Blue Bloc has even started to govern.

I had expected HTA to simply resign her seat and move to the UK. Maybe do some consultancy work.

I think the plan was to make Peter Christensen MoF, but since he had a rather terrible personal election and did not get elected, Løkke did not want to do it. They say Hjort has a great relationship with the DPP which is an upside about him, but I had expected Jensen in the post as well. Perhaps a reshuffle here at some point.

If the recently retired government had had a equally-gendered government Løkke would have put more women in for sure, but since it only had 30% women, then there was hardly any obligation for Løkke to reach a higher level, the new government has 29% women. If he had included more, he would probably have had to look outside their MP group. Lykke Friis apparently wants to be the rector at Copenhagen University. She would have been great as say Foreign Minister, but her resignation from parliament halfway through made it difficult to bring her back anyway. Being brought into government from the outside world, run for one election with a great personal, resign from Parliament after only two years in opposition and then return just as the party returned to government without running in the election; that would probably have been seen as too easy a ride, both in the public and in the Liberal group, despite her popularity.

[Diouf]

Out of curiosity, when is the planned opening date for the new Folketing?

On Thursday. As I understand it there will only be an interim Speaker on Thursday who will have to preside over the election of a Committee to sign off the election result. It is yet unclear whether the parties will use the election of the interim Speaker as a proxy for the real election or just appoint the most experienced MP to the post. The real election of the Speaker will then take place on Friday.

The first political agreement was already made yesterday. The Liberals, the Conservatives, DPP, SPP and the Alternative decided to re-introduced the subsidy to the workman part of private house improvements. It will work in its normal form in the whole of 2015, and then in 2016 and 2017 it will almost exclusively be able to be used for green improvements; a demand from the two red/green parties in the agreement.

[Diouf]

Today the new members of Parliament signed the Constitution. In the picture, it is the youngest member of the new Parliament, 21-year-old Tilde Bork from DPP, who signs it in front of a picture of the 1915 constitutional convention.

As expected, Pia Kjærsgaard was elected Speaker of the Parliament. The Social Democrats and the blue bloc voted in favour, while the Red-Green Alliance and the Alternative voted against. The Social Liberals and the SPP voted blank.

Helle Thorning-Schmidt (Social Democrats) is 1.deputy speaker
Kristian Pihl Lorentzen (Liberals) is 2.deputy speaker
Stine Brix (Red-Green Alliance) is 3.deputy speaker
Mette Bock (Liberal Alliance) is 4.deputy speaker.

I guess the discussion on Danish politics now returns to the Great Nordic thread.

[Diouf]

A new study about the 2015 election has recently been published. Below are three of the main takeaways from the study.

Blue Bloc soared in the latter half of the campaign as immigration became the dominant theme



The charts above show the Blue Bloc's polling average and the most important topics for the voters during three weeks of the campaign. The Blue Bloc fell below 50% after the first half of the campaign, when welfare, and health care in particular, dominanted voters' mind. However, then immigration and refugees started to rise as the most important topic, and the Blue Bloc regained a clear lead. They fell back a little again right before election day, when the polling average had them om 50.47%. Of course, in the end it received 52.26% of the vote on election day, mainly because DPP did better than expected.

Lars Løkke cost the Liberals at least 50.000 votes

The scientists calculated how much the Liberal leader Lars Løkke cost the party in the 2015 election. They measure how much his personal popularity dropped after his expenses scandals, and then inserted that into their formula for how much personal popularity normally affects the vote shared of particular parties. That way they reach the number of 1.4% of all voters, i.e. 50.000 voters. They then even add that the final tally might be even bigger. The sympathy for the Liberal Party as a whole dropped as well, which cost the party an additional 130.000 voters. Some of the Liberal party's sympathy losses was probably due to Løkke, why some of these additional losses has him to blame. 

Big gap between four old parties and new parties in terms of trust in politicians



On average, 60% of the voters from the four old parties generally trust the politicians, while the same is only the case for 35% of the voters from the other parties. DPP in particular with the lowest trust score and a lot of voters draw that figure down. The Social Liberals have the biggest trust in politicians.