Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[Diouf]

A table from Altinget.dk which shows how voters have moved since the 2011 election. The movement is shown in seats; one seat requires the movement of about 20 000 voters which is just above 0.5% of the voters.
Not much new to notice in terms of movement.
The seven largest net movements are:
V to DF
Sofa to DF
S to DF
R to S
SF to EL
SF to S
S to sofa

"Ikke st" are the changes due to the voting eligibility of those who weren't old enough to vote in 2011 and those voters who have died since then. This generational shift costs the Liberals and especially the Social Democrats. The death of many loyal Social Democrats and their terrible standing among the new voters looks like it will cost them almost 2 seats. Too bad that the voting age can't be raised without a referendum; otherwise Helle could have made strides towards re-election by doing just that

[rosin]

In a new poll by Megafon, V is bleeding voters to (mainly) S and DF (V is 4,7 %-points down since last month's poll, while  S is 2 %-points up and DF is 1,7 %-points up since last month), while Alternativet is exactly hitting the 2%-threshold of representation. Even with this infusion of votes, red bloc (including Alternativet) only counts 48% of the (represented) votes in total, which primarily is because R (the social liberals) lose 1,8 %-points. Except V and R, all parties of the Folketing gain votes.

Full results:



This combined with that red bloc is very likely to win both Greenlandic seats makes the race rather close, although it would be interesting to see what would happen if the government had to rely on votes from Alternativet.

[Diouf]

In a new poll by Megafon, V is bleeding voters to (mainly) S and DF (V is 4,7 %-points down since last month's poll, while  S is 2 %-points up and DF is 1,7 %-points up since last month), while Alternativet is exactly hitting the 2%-threshold of representation. Even with this infusion of votes, red bloc (including Alternativet) only counts 48% of the (represented) votes in total, which primarily is because R (the social liberals) lose 1,8 %-points. Except V and R, all parties of the Folketing gain votes.

Well, it's not that easy. As the charts of voter movement shows, there is very little net movement from V to S. According to Megafon which made the above poll, 2% of the 2011 V voters wil vote S and 2% of the 2011 S voters will vote V. V is losing most of its 2011 supporters to DF (17%) and quite a bit to LA as well (7%).
The Social Democrat's main sources of support are still SF and R voters.
What seems to be happening is that as the election campaign is basically already on, some of those Social Democrat voters who have been undecided for quite a while are now making their mind up and have decided to vote for them again. Some of the S to DF voters are maybe coming back as well, but still 8% of the 2011 Social Democrats would now vote for DF, while only 2% of DFs voters have made the opposite move.

According to Megafon, the Alternativet voters are almost exclusively people who voted for the "red bloc" in 2011; 26% are former SF, 24% are former S, 22% are former Ø and 21 % former R.

[Diouf]

Venstre brings back popular figure just in time for the election


Søren Gade, who was Minister of Defence from 2004 - 2010, has just announced that he will run in the 2015 election. He is a very popular figure among many Liberals, especially those in his home area of Western Jutland. Somewhat surprisingly, he will run in Aalborg, but perhaps there are simply not many empty wards left at this point or Northern Jutland needed a strong Liberal candidate more than Western Jutland. In all likelyhood he will be elected to parliament there as well.
He was a very popular minister, and in the 2007 election he received 24 000 personal votes, the second highest number of all Liberal candidates. However, he had to quite as Minister of Defence after an embarrassing case. Employees in the Defence Command had google translated a book by a former special forces soldier into Arabic, and then used that version as evidence that the book would cause security risks for Denmark and therefore had to be stopped. From 2012 to 2014, he was the CEO of the Danish Agriculture and Food Council.

He played a significant role in the leadership battle in the Liberals last year. Lars Løkke and his backers claimed that if Kristian Jensen forced Løkke to resign, then Søren Gade would stand as leader candidate against Kristian Jensen. Something which probably played a part in making Jensen back down. Gade's entrance into the parliamentary group after the election might bring some unease for Jensen and his backers, who could fear that Gade will get a high-ranking Minister post instead of them, and/or will be positioned as the new leader once Løkke resigns.

[Jens]

Enjoy TV-2 News completely messing up a graph
DF larger that the Social Democrats, despite SD getting 4 % more. B (Radikale Venstre) twice as big as SF with 0,1 % more of the votes. And the Conservatives bigger that SF and LA

[Jens]

The PM didn't called for an elections today, but the rumour machine is running wild and there is a good change that the election will be called tomorrow or Thursday.

[Diouf]

Election just called for 18. June

[Jens]

Election just called for 18. June

Latest poll was 48 % for red bloc, 52 % for blue bloc. It could be close.
And now - out with the election posters

[Diouf]

The latest poll before the election which Jens referred to:

[Diouf]

A few election posters of the leading candidates in Aarhus in the Eastern Jutland multi-member constituency.



An Alternative poster with their leading candidate in the constituency, the unknown Niko Grünfeld. Like the party leader, he was a part of the entrepreneur school the Chaos Pilots. Now he has his own education company which focuses on "social capital in the health sector". If they cross the threshold, he will certainly get a seat.
Below him is Liv Holm Andersen, which received the second of three Social Liberal seats in Eastern Jutland in 2011. The first seat is that of party leader and Deputy Prime Minister Morten Østergaard. She is one of the least competent MPs, but will probably just get in again. Despite the Social Liberal decline, Østergaard will probably ensure that they get two MPs in this constituency.



Jonas Dahl got two months as Minister of Taxation before SPP left the government. Now he is the SPP group leader, a position that can be somewhat compared with a whip I guess. In 2011, he got the first of two SPP seats in the constituency. With a bad result, 10 seats or below, they could lose one of their seats. However, he will get the first seat no matter what.



In this picture, you can see the two candidates which will probably get the most personal votes in the constituency. Social Democrat Nicolai Wammen is a former Mayor of Aarhus, and topped the chart in Eastern Jutland last time around with the fifth highest number of personal votes countrywide. In the last four years he has been a minister; first for European Affairs, then for Defence. Therefore, he will probably top the chart again.
His main challenger will be the Liberal Jakob Ellemann-Jensen. In 2011, he was elected as the second Liberal in Funen, but is expected to top the Liberal charts in Eastern Jutland this time. He is the party's European spokesperson, and the son of former Liberal leader and Foreign Minister Uffe Ellemann-Jensen, who received very high numbers of personal votes in Eastern Jutland, often ending in the very top of the national list.
In 2011, both parties received 7 seats in Eastern Jutland; this time one or both of them will probably lose a seat.
You can also see Enhedslisten (Red-Green Alliance)'s party letter Ø. Their top candidate in Eastern Jutland, Nikolaj Villumsen, is not that well-known, so they will probably mainly focus on their old-style way of only using the party and not the candidates. They will probably double their seats here from 1 to 2.


At the top you can see the eloquent, and sometimes slightly arrogant, Liberal Alliance top candidate Ole Birk Olesen. He is a former journalist, and owns the popular right-wing blog/debate site "180 degrees", and is the party's financial spokesperson. Him and the party have a lot of support, among especially young male students, in Aarhus, and he will probably get the company of an additional Liberal Alliance MP from the constituency this time.
Below him is the Liberal Fatma Øktem who I will probably vote for this time. She pipped her husband to the seventh and last Liberal seat in the constituency in 2011. Two of the Liberal women, who were elected here in 2011, are not running this time, which, along with 4 years as an MP, should help her secure another term, even if the Liberals lose one or even two seats in Eastern Jutland.



The Syrian-born Naser Khader lost his seat in the Copenhagen environs in the 2011 election, and has spent the last four years as a radio host and a fellow at the Hudson Institute. Both these jobs were related to the situation in the Middle East. After the attacks in Paris and Copenhagen, he returned to Danish politics, and was the man behind the "Stop Nazi Islamism" campaign. The current Conservative MP for Eastern Jutland Tom Behnke is not running, so unless the Conseratives melt down completely and only get 4-5 seats, Khader will probably win back a seat in parliament.

I haven't seen any DPP or Christian Democrat posters in Aarhus yet. They are probably focusing on the rural and suburban areas and in smaller villages where they will probably get far more votes than in urban Aarhus. Also DPP's posters have some times been removed in areas like this by far-left activists.

[Silent Hunter]

The latest poll before the election which Jens referred to:

Which one is DPP? The O?

[Diouf]

Which one is DPP? The O?

Yes

[Silent Hunter]

Eek... would Venstre actually have them in a coalition?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

They will have to rely on them I'm some capacity, unless they want to never be in power again. They relied on them when they were last in government anyway.

Pretty much all parties in Denmark walk to the beat of the Dansk Folksparti's drum nowadays, so it hardly matters.

[Diouf]

Eek... would Venstre actually have them in a coalition?

Probably not. Lars Løkke has said that his government would campaign in favour for changing Denmark's opt-out on justice and home affairs to an opt-in in the referendum planned for 2016. Like in any EU-referendum, DPP campaigns against further EU-integration, so while this is not a very important question in the election campaign, it probably means that such a coalition would not happen. Also DPP very much enjoyed their position in 2001 - 2011, where they could make agreements with the government in most areas, but also be in opposition to it when there was a scandal. The DPP leader Kristian Thulesen Dahl often talks about the mistakes of the SPP; he will not be in government for any price. Basically, they are in some ways still a party of protest, and would not like be in a position where they should take responsibility for everything that happens. Some have speculated whether the DPP would join the government AFTER the EU referendum; this would be an unprecedented form of coalition building, but perhaps not completely unlikely. However, there could soon be new EU referendums, which by the logic would then mean that the government would be dissolved again; not that pratical.

It is the preferred government among voters:
Norstat poll for altinget.dk

Liberals - DPP 26 %
Social Democrats 16%
Social Democrats - Social Liberals - SPP 14%
Liberal - Conservative 13%
Social Democrat - Social Liberal 9%
Liberals 4 %
Don't know 17%

Ironically, the two least preferred government are the two most likely outcomes. Many classic Social Democrat voters do not like the Social Liberals, but it is hard to see the Social Democrats going for it alone. They would still have to come to agreements with the Social Liberals, and will see that as easier to do inside a government. I can only see it happen if the Social Liberals are completely crushed and only end up with 5-6 seats, which does not look likely to happen.

As mentioned above, I don't think Liberal-DPP is likely. The Conservatives are probably still the most governmental of the other right-wing parties, but I don't think they would enter into another Liberal-Conservative coalition. They know that the Liberal Alliance would hound them continously for not being right-wing enough on economic issues, they look like they will be a very small party, and it is quite likely that their party leader Søren Pape Poulsen will not be elected. Most experts predict that he will only get in if the Conservatives get 9 seats or more. An extinction-threatened party without a leader will probably not join a government. The Liberal Alliance has claimed that they are open to entering a government, but that it should be a four party majority government like the Alliance in Sweden. If they could get a government with as clear goals on tax cuts and lower public spending as the Swedish Alliance, then they would probably agree to it. However, the DPP would prefer not to enter government, and if they do it is extremely unlikely that they, as perhaps the biggest party, would accept such an economic platform. A Liberal - Conservative - Liberal Alliance could perhaps be a possibility, but in addition to all the problems mentioned above, I think the Liberals would be afraid that they would be drawn to far away from the centrist welfare voters which would then prefer the Social Democrats or DPP. Also there would be a lot of bickering between the two small parties on which ministries to get in order to get the honor for all the nice tax cuts.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Danish opposition parties to get combined 50.6% of vote vs 49.4% for government bloc, according to Greens poll published newspaper Borsen.
Opposition leader Lars Loekke Rasmussen’s Liberal Party to get 19.5% of vote vs 21.9% in Greens poll earlier this month: Borsen
Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt’s Social Democrats to get 24.8% of vote vs 25.5% in Greens poll earlier this month: Borsen

[ingemann]

Election poster of Mads Holger (obnoxious radio host and entrepreneur, whose candidacy have started a small civil war in the Conservatives)



I'm not sure if he's going with:

The Great Leader look out into horizon, while he visionise his goals.

or

"Hey did I remember to lock the door"


Edit

While looking for the poster, I also found this one from a DPP candidate



And this one from Glistrup from the Progress Party



The impressive part is that he died in 2008, and the party has run in national campaigns since 2001

http://jyllands-posten.dk/politik/ECE7741217/Ahva%3F+Se+valgkampens+mest+overraskende+valgplakater/

[Silent Hunter]

And this one from Glistrup from the Progress Party



The impressive part is that he died in 2008, and the party has run in national campaigns since 2001

http://jyllands-posten.dk/politik/ECE7741217/Ahva%3F+Se+valgkampens+mest+overraskende+valgplakater/

Now he reminds me of someone... Svend Åge Saltum from Borgen. From what I've read the resemblance is quite intentional.

[ingemann]

Now he reminds me of someone... Svend Åge Saltum from Borgen. From what I've read the resemblance is quite intentional.

Yes, through Saltum was more a mix of Glistrup mannerism (Glistrup spoke Bornholmsk, the only non-Swedified dialect of East Danish, it's hard to understand and seen as very rural, at the same time he was one of the best and smartest lawyers of his generation) with DPP's more goal oriented politics (the Progress Party was a bunch of right wing anarchiests). Glistrup was more of a enfant terrible or almost a provo artist. His entire career build on going against the establishment and creating chaos in general. It was always interesting, but rarely very pretty.

[rosin]

Polls have shown the race significantly tightening.

Epinion for DR:

This will most likely become 86 seats for red bloc and 89 for blue.

Megafon for Politiken and TV 2:

POLITISK INDEKS

Socialdemokraterne: 25,2 pct. (44 seats)
Radikale Venstre: 6,1 pct. (11)
Det Konservative Folkeparti: 4,6 pct. (8 )
Socialistisk Folkeparti: 6,9 pct. (12)
Liberal Alliance: 6,8 pct. (12)
Kristendemokraterne: 0,5 pct. (0)
Dansk Folkeparti: 19,8 pct. (35)
Venstre: 19,7 pct. (34)
Enhedslisten: 7,8 pct. (14)
Alternativet: 2,5 (5)
Blå blok: 51,2 pct. (89)
Rød blok: 48,8 pct. (86)
Målingen er foretaget 29. til 30. maj.
Spørgsmål: Hvilket part ville du stemme på, hvis der var folketingsvalg i morgen?
Respondenter: 1.001
Statistisk usikkerhed: Op til +/- 3 procentpoint

Greens for Børsen:

S: 24,5% (43 seats)
R: 5,5% (10)
SF: 6,8% (12)
EL: 10,2% (18)
Alt: 2,4% (4)

Red bloc combined: 49,4% / 87 seats

V: 20,1% (35)
DF: 19,6% (35)
K: 3,8% (7)
LA: 6,2% (11)
(KD: 0,9% (0))

Blue bloc combined: 49,7% (not counting the vote for KD) / 88 seats

Voxmeter for Ritzau:

The grey columns are the results of last election, the white ones are previous polls, and the green ones are the results of the newest poll and the statistical uncertainity of the results
Totally this is 48,0% for the red bloc (+ 1,9% for Alternativet) and 49,8% for the blue bloc.
In seats, it is 87 for red and 88 for blue (but this is with Alternativet below the threshold)

For all the polls, remember that most likely the North Atlantic seats (which are not included in the polls' numbers)will be distributeted 3-1 in favor of red bloc, so at this point, all the polls are showing a statistical tie.

[DavidB.]

I'm curious: are there any Voting Compasses? Curious whether I'd get V, O, or I.

By the way, many thanks for all your contributions, Charlotte Hebdo. Really interesting.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Danish PM Helle Thorning-Schmidt’s Social Democrat-led bloc leads opposition 50.5% to 49.1%, according to Voxmeter poll published by Ritzau.

[Diouf]

I'm curious: are there any Voting Compasses? Curious whether I'd get V, O, or I.

By the way, many thanks for all your contributions, Charlotte Hebdo. Really interesting.

Most of the tests are for candidates, not parties, although the answers from same party candidates are probably very similar.

http://politik.tv2.dk/valg2015/kandidattest

Here is one for TV2, I will try to translate

First of you need to pick the two most important topics for you. They are:
Employment, hospitals and health, refugees and immigrants
Social policy, education, the elderly, taxation, economy
Children and youth, foreign and defense policy, law and order
Environment and climate, EU, animal welfare

Then there's 18 statements where you can answer:
Completely disagree, partly disagree, neither nor, partly agree, completely agree

The actual statements are:
There should be more employees in the public sector
It is neccessary to introduce user fees in more areas of the health sector
The Danish immigration and refugee policy is too tight
Too many people stay on benefits because the benefits are too high
There is too much focus on tests in the Danish schools
In the long term it will be necessary to introduce user fees in areas of the elderly care
The top tax bracket should stay
The Danish salaries are so high that they damage the Danish economy
There should be more economic support for families with children
Denmark should be less active in international military operations
The sentences should be longer for violent crimes
The green taxes for companies should be increased
Denmark has given up too much power to the EU
It should be made more beneficial to go from traditional farming to ecological farming.

The last four statements depend on the topics which you chose:
Employment:
More should be done to ensure that EU-immigrants do not undercut Danish wages
The amount of time you need to work to re-earn your unemployment benefits should be cut from 12 to 6 months.

Hospitals and health:
One of the main priorities for the health sector should be more coherence so that the same doctor and the same nurses follow the patient throughout the treatment
Increased competition from private companies makes the public health sector perform better.

Refugees and immigrants:
It should be easier to expel foreigners which have commited crimes
There should be more differentation in the immigration system, so people from some countries get an easier access than others.

Social policy:
The economic inequality in the Danish society should be reduced.
The obligation to support your partner when considering eligibility for cash benefits should be removed.

Education:
Pupils in schools should be graded earlier than they do today (8th grade, around 14 years old)
There should be a bigger focus on discipline in schools.

Elderly:
More money should be allocated to elderly care, even if this means that other welfare areas would get less resources.
There should be income adjustments in the elderly care so wealthy elderly should pay for some of the services they get.

Taxation:
Property taxes should be increased in order to lower income taxes.
The VAT should be differentiated so that it is lower on healthy products, and higher on other products.

Economy:
It requires more investments in the public sector to strengthen the economy
If conditions are made better for the private sector, then it will help our competitiveness and the economy overall

Children and youth:
There should be an increased focus on families with social problems and a decreased focus on well-functioning families. (Don't really understand this question)
The day-care centres should focus more on teaching the children discipline.

Foreign and defense policies:
Denmark should increase its defence budget.
Denmark should decrease its development aid budget.

Law and order:
The age of criminal responsibility should be lowered from its current level of 15 years.
There should be less focus on punishment and more focus on resocialisation.

Environment and climate
It is an important political task to get the Danes to reuse more than they currently do.
It would be good for both the environment and the economy if more was done to transform the society into using more renewable energy.

EU:
Denmark should remove its opt-out on justice and home affairs.
In the long term, Turkey should be able to join the EU.

Animal welfare:
Fur farming should be illegal
Battery hens should be illegal.

Then you have to state which party you voted for at the last election

Whether you are male (mand) or female (kvinde)

Your age

And where you live. If you want to see the candidates from my pictures, then choose Aarhus Kommune. But there are 97 others to choose from

Then it shows the candidates you agree and disagree with the most, and the score for each party.

[DavidB.]

I'm curious: are there any Voting Compasses? Curious whether I'd get V, O, or I.

By the way, many thanks for all your contributions, Charlotte Hebdo. Really interesting.

Most of the tests are for candidates, not parties, although the answers from same party candidates are probably very similar.

http://politik.tv2.dk/valg2015/kandidattest

Here is one for TV2, I will try to translate

First of you need to pick the two most important topics for you. They are:
Employment, hospitals and health, refugees and immigrants
Social policy, education, the elderly, taxation, economy
Children and youth, foreign and defense policy, law and order
Environment and climate, EU, animal welfare

Then there's 18 statements where you can answer:
Completely disagree, partly disagree, neither nor, partly agree, completely agree

The actual statements are:
There should be more employees in the public sector
It is neccessary to introduce user fees in more areas of the health sector
The Danish immigration and refugee policy is too tight
Too many people stay on benefits because the benefits are too high
There is too much focus on tests in the Danish schools
In the long term it will be necessary to introduce user fees in areas of the elderly care
The top tax bracket should stay
The Danish salaries are so high that they damage the Danish economy
There should be more economic support for families with children
Denmark should be less active in international military operations
The sentences should be longer for violent crimes
The green taxes for companies should be increased
Denmark has given up too much power to the EU
It should be made more beneficial to go from traditional farming to ecological farming.
It should be easier to expel foreigners which have commited crimes
There should be more differentation in the immigration system, so people from some countries get an easier access than others.
It requires more investments in the public sector to strengthen the economy
If conditions are made better for the private sector, then it will help our competitiveness and the economy overall

Then you have to state which party you voted for at the last election

Whether you are male (mand) or female (kvinde)

Your age

And where you live. If you want to see the candidates from my pictures, then choose Aarhus Kommune. But there are 97 others to choose from

d
Wow, many thanks for this!

Although I think I got 2 different questions, probably because I selected the EU as something important. The questions are "Danmark bør afskaffe retsforbeholdet i næste valgperiode" and "Tyrkiet skal på sigt kunne komme med i EU", I guess the first question relates to the opt-outs that Denmark has with regard to the euro and immigration while the second one is about Turkey entering the EU (as if that would happen).

My result for Aarhus: 5 I candidates (82%, 81%), a V candidate and an O candidate (80%) and then a whole bunch of candidates from V, C, I and O until 75%, lol. Doesn't seem to give a clear result, but that's exactly what I expected. Party results at the end of the page: I 83%, C 78%, O 76%, V 74%.

[Diouf]

Wow, many thanks for this!

Although I think I got 2 different questions, probably because I selected the EU as something important. The questions are "Danmark bør afskaffe retsforbeholdet i næste valgperiode" and "Tyrkiet skal på sigt kunne komme med i EU", I guess the first question relates to the opt-outs that Denmark has with regard to the euro and immigration while the second one is about Turkey entering the EU (as if that would happen).

My result for Aarhus: 5 I candidates (82%, 81%), a V candidate and an O candidate (80%) and then a whole bunch of candidates from V, C, I and O until 75%, lol. Doesn't seem to give a clear result, but that's exactly what I expected. Party results at the end of the page: I 83%, C 78%, O 76%, V 74%.

Sorry, I didn't realize the questions actually changed. I chose immigration and economy as I think those two, along with health, usually tops the charts.
The first statement you got was that Denmark should remove its opt-out on justice and home affairs, which will be voted on in late 2015 or early 2016. The second is in the long term Turkey should be able to join the EU, and yes not a very relevant question at the moment.