Who will win ...

[Tender Branson]

The state election will be in 3 weeks and Carinthia was home to the late Jörg Haider, who died in a car crash in 2008.



After his death, the BZÖ won 45% in the 2009 "Jörg Haider remembrance" state election, the SPÖ 29%, the ÖVP 17%, the Greens 5% and the FPÖ 4%.

Then the leading people of the BZÖ decided to create a new party called "FPK", which similar to the CSU and CDU in Germany is associated closely with the federal FPÖ.

There is also a rest-BZÖ.

Meanwhile, most former politicians of the "System Haider" have now been on trial for corruption or already sentenced to prison terms or fines.

Meanwhile, the Team Stronach has emerged in Carinthia as well, just like on the federal level.

The current polls indicate the following:

30-35% SPÖ
25-30% FPK
10-15% Greens
10-15% ÖVP
10-15% Team Stronach
  5-10% BZÖ
    0-2% Others (Pirates, ASOK, Stark-List, LPÖ)

Turnout was 82% in the 2009 elections and the polls VASTLY underestimated the BZÖ-win before the election. The final polls were about 30-30 each for SPÖ and BZÖ, but then the margin was 16% !!!

So, what do you think will happen this time ?

Does the FPK still win, despite all the corruption trials in the last few years that involved many of their members ? Will the Social Democrats fumble another election, like they do so often here and around Europe ? Or will the SPÖ win a decent or even big election victory ?

[Franzl]

Kärntens general racism could be strong enough for a surprise FPK win.

[Tender Branson]

Kärntens general racism could be strong enough for a surprise FPK win.

The last poll from yesterday shows an 11-point lead for the SPÖ.

Maybe there's hope after all for the Kärntner people to return to their historic Social Democratic roots ...

[Tender Branson]

New Humaninstitut poll has the FPK ahead ...

29% FPK
27% SPÖ
17% Stronach
10% BZÖ
  9% ÖVP
  8% Greens

http://www.humaninstitut.at/humaninstitut/download.php?file=KAERNTENS_SCHICKSALSWAHL.pdf

But take it with a ton of salt, until other pollsters show something similar.

[Tender Branson]

1 week to go bump.

BTW:

But take it with a ton of salt, until other pollsters show something similar.

Other pollsters have not shown something similar so far.

[Tender Branson]

Considering the Italy results, I'm not so sure of a SPÖ-win anymore ...

Carinthia often is as stupid as Italy.