2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Brittain33]

I'm sorry but I have to think such insane early voting has to help Democrats if it stays like this.  Even though the Falls Church voters would almost certainly vote on Election Day, you never know, a few might have something come up, etc.  This banks their votes now.  Plus the party doesn't have to worry about them and invest resources last minute on voters who have already turned out.  If a similar thing happens in Philly and its burbs I think that's a good sign.

My thought on this is that I think it would be incredibly surprising if there weren't high Democratic turnout after the last three years of elections, and I think even predictions expecting a Trump win have to price that in, assuming high Republican turnout and moderates staying home or voting Republican unexpectedly. "We don't know what will happen" but it's just not conceivable that Democrats, at least white Democrats, don't turn out in huge number.

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm sorry but I have to think such insane early voting has to help Democrats if it stays like this.  Even though the Falls Church voters would almost certainly vote on Election Day, you never know, a few might have something come up, etc.  This banks their votes now.  Plus the party doesn't have to worry about them and invest resources last minute on voters who have already turned out.  If a similar thing happens in Philly and its burbs I think that's a good sign.

My thought on this is that I think it would be incredibly surprising if there weren't high Democratic turnout after the last three years of elections, and I think even predictions expecting a Trump win have to price that in, assuming high Republican turnout and moderates staying home or voting Republican unexpectedly. "We don't know what will happen" but it's just not conceivable that Democrats, at least white Democrats, don't turn out in huge number.

Yes, but what I mean is if Democrats can keep banking these votes now then the last week they can really focus their efforts on a smaller pool of voters to turn out or persuade.  If Dems have 50 million votes banked and Republicans only have 20 million banked, it must give them a strategic advantage around election time.

[libertpaulian]

If Falls Church is having this kind of turnout already, this bodes well for early voting in places like Chester County (PA), Delaware County (OH), Wake County (NC), Gwinnett County (GA), Fort Bend County (TX), etc.

[Gass3268]

Some insane voter registration numbers in the Twin Cities area.

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1308957781802864642?s=20

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'd love to see some similar voter registration stats about Texas between now & 2016/2018 (Or even just this year)

[Dr. Arch]

I'm sorry but I have to think such insane early voting has to help Democrats if it stays like this.  Even though the Falls Church voters would almost certainly vote on Election Day, you never know, a few might have something come up, etc.  This banks their votes now.  Plus the party doesn't have to worry about them and invest resources last minute on voters who have already turned out.  If a similar thing happens in Philly and its burbs I think that's a good sign.

We saw this in 2018.

[wbrocks67]

I'd love to see some similar voter registration stats about Texas between now & 2016/2018 (Or even just this year)

Here ya go!

TX added 1.5 million new voters just since 2016.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/Texas-voter-registration-surges-trump-biden-record-15586286.php

[Non Swing Voter]

how long til Virginia surpasses North Carolina in total early votes?  The numbers are insane.

[kph14]

how long til Virginia surpasses North Carolina in total early votes?  The numbers are insane.

Very soon. NC has been adding around 20k a day while VA is close to 50k a day. NC has no in-person until the middle of October

[Non Swing Voter]

how long til Virginia surpasses North Carolina in total early votes?  The numbers are insane.

Very soon. NC has been adding around 20k a day while VA is close to 50k a day. NC has no in-person until the middle of October

Yeah and it looks like the VA absentee ballots are starting to trickle in more substantially.  I wouldn't be surprised if VA gets to 500,000 within 10 days.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Are there any websites similar to http://georgiavotes.com/ but for other states?

[wbrocks67]

I'm sorry but I have to think such insane early voting has to help Democrats if it stays like this.  Even though the Falls Church voters would almost certainly vote on Election Day, you never know, a few might have something come up, etc.  This banks their votes now.  Plus the party doesn't have to worry about them and invest resources last minute on voters who have already turned out.  If a similar thing happens in Philly and its burbs I think that's a good sign.

We saw this in 2018.

Much of what we've seen so far with Dem intensity, early voting, general Dem polling averages for Biden/GCB (6-8) looks almost exactly like 2018.

[Gass3268]

Returned ballots in Wisconsin up to 122,756 voters. That is 10.83% of all current requests, 3.90% of current registered voters, and 4.12% of all 2016 voters. Douglas County is still leading the pack percentage wise with 25.13%|7.68%|8.78%, but Dane County is rapidly catching up in % of registered voters and % of 2016 voters at 14.51%|6.79%|8.14%. There has been some discussion of the lag in Milwaukee. I've seen multiple Twitter reports of people not yet receiving their ballots or having just received them. This might be the mail issue at hand. It also appears to be inconsistant too as some counties are flying at getting ballots and getting them back. Best example of this is I got a birthday card from my Grandma here in Cook County from Dane County and she put it in the mail on Monday, but some people in Milwaukee haven't gotten ballots that were sent late last week.

[kph14]

Are there any websites similar to http://georgiavotes.com/ but for other states?

There is https://carolinaelections.com/votetracker/gen2020

[Landslide Lyndon]

Question: which are the states which offer voters the chance to fix any problems with their mail ballots or lets them vote in person in case they are rejected pre-election day?

[Skill and Chance]

I'm sorry but I have to think such insane early voting has to help Democrats if it stays like this.  Even though the Falls Church voters would almost certainly vote on Election Day, you never know, a few might have something come up, etc.  This banks their votes now.  Plus the party doesn't have to worry about them and invest resources last minute on voters who have already turned out.  If a similar thing happens in Philly and its burbs I think that's a good sign.

Pennsylvania is unique among the swing states because it has no-excuse mail voting but no early in-person voting at all (other than dropping off a mail ballot that the voter already requested and was mailed).  Basically the opposite of Texas (highly restrictive mail voting with no COVID excuse, but long period of in-person early voting).  This is why the vagaries of mail voting in PA are getting so much scrutiny. 

[wbrocks67]

I'm sorry but I have to think such insane early voting has to help Democrats if it stays like this.  Even though the Falls Church voters would almost certainly vote on Election Day, you never know, a few might have something come up, etc.  This banks their votes now.  Plus the party doesn't have to worry about them and invest resources last minute on voters who have already turned out.  If a similar thing happens in Philly and its burbs I think that's a good sign.

Pennsylvania is unique among the swing states because it has no-excuse mail voting but no early in-person voting at all (other than dropping off a mail ballot that the voter already requested and was mailed).  Basically the opposite of Texas (highly restrictive mail voting with no COVID excuse, but long period of in-person early voting).  This is why the vagaries of mail voting in PA are getting so much scrutiny. 

That was true until this year - but many counties, at least in Philly/Southeast are opening satellite election offices to basically do pseudo "early voting" this year. I think the Philly ones open this week or next week

[Skill and Chance]

I'm sorry but I have to think such insane early voting has to help Democrats if it stays like this.  Even though the Falls Church voters would almost certainly vote on Election Day, you never know, a few might have something come up, etc.  This banks their votes now.  Plus the party doesn't have to worry about them and invest resources last minute on voters who have already turned out.  If a similar thing happens in Philly and its burbs I think that's a good sign.

Pennsylvania is unique among the swing states because it has no-excuse mail voting but no early in-person voting at all (other than dropping off a mail ballot that the voter already requested and was mailed).  Basically the opposite of Texas (highly restrictive mail voting with no COVID excuse, but long period of in-person early voting).  This is why the vagaries of mail voting in PA are getting so much scrutiny. 

That was true until this year - but many counties, at least in Philly/Southeast are opening satellite election offices to basically do pseudo "early voting" this year. I think the Philly ones open this week or next week

The "all-in-one" absentee satellite offices haven't opened yet and are being challenged in court.

[wbrocks67]

I'm sorry but I have to think such insane early voting has to help Democrats if it stays like this.  Even though the Falls Church voters would almost certainly vote on Election Day, you never know, a few might have something come up, etc.  This banks their votes now.  Plus the party doesn't have to worry about them and invest resources last minute on voters who have already turned out.  If a similar thing happens in Philly and its burbs I think that's a good sign.

Pennsylvania is unique among the swing states because it has no-excuse mail voting but no early in-person voting at all (other than dropping off a mail ballot that the voter already requested and was mailed).  Basically the opposite of Texas (highly restrictive mail voting with no COVID excuse, but long period of in-person early voting).  This is why the vagaries of mail voting in PA are getting so much scrutiny. 

That was true until this year - but many counties, at least in Philly/Southeast are opening satellite election offices to basically do pseudo "early voting" this year. I think the Philly ones open this week or next week

The "all-in-one" absentee satellite offices haven't opened yet and are being challenged in court.

They are opening September 29th regardless: https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/philadelphia-early-voting-locations-2020-election-20200918.html

[Skill and Chance]

I'm sorry but I have to think such insane early voting has to help Democrats if it stays like this.  Even though the Falls Church voters would almost certainly vote on Election Day, you never know, a few might have something come up, etc.  This banks their votes now.  Plus the party doesn't have to worry about them and invest resources last minute on voters who have already turned out.  If a similar thing happens in Philly and its burbs I think that's a good sign.

Pennsylvania is unique among the swing states because it has no-excuse mail voting but no early in-person voting at all (other than dropping off a mail ballot that the voter already requested and was mailed).  Basically the opposite of Texas (highly restrictive mail voting with no COVID excuse, but long period of in-person early voting).  This is why the vagaries of mail voting in PA are getting so much scrutiny. 

That was true until this year - but many counties, at least in Philly/Southeast are opening satellite election offices to basically do pseudo "early voting" this year. I think the Philly ones open this week or next week

The "all-in-one" absentee satellite offices haven't opened yet and are being challenged in court.

They are opening September 29th regardless: https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/philadelphia-early-voting-locations-2020-election-20200918.html

OK, looks promising.  If the whole thing happens under poll worker supervision, a lot of the high profile errors that could invalidate a ballot can be avoided.

[wbrocks67]

I'm sorry but I have to think such insane early voting has to help Democrats if it stays like this.  Even though the Falls Church voters would almost certainly vote on Election Day, you never know, a few might have something come up, etc.  This banks their votes now.  Plus the party doesn't have to worry about them and invest resources last minute on voters who have already turned out.  If a similar thing happens in Philly and its burbs I think that's a good sign.

Pennsylvania is unique among the swing states because it has no-excuse mail voting but no early in-person voting at all (other than dropping off a mail ballot that the voter already requested and was mailed).  Basically the opposite of Texas (highly restrictive mail voting with no COVID excuse, but long period of in-person early voting).  This is why the vagaries of mail voting in PA are getting so much scrutiny. 

That was true until this year - but many counties, at least in Philly/Southeast are opening satellite election offices to basically do pseudo "early voting" this year. I think the Philly ones open this week or next week

The "all-in-one" absentee satellite offices haven't opened yet and are being challenged in court.

They are opening September 29th regardless: https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/philadelphia-early-voting-locations-2020-election-20200918.html

OK, looks promising.  If the whole thing happens under poll worker supervision, a lot of the high profile errors that could invalidate a ballot can be avoided.

The only thing I worry about pessimistically is that because these are new, that no one really knows about them. It would be really great if enough people utilized them, and I hope they do, but I fear many people don't realize they're even opening

[Skill and Chance]

I'm sorry but I have to think such insane early voting has to help Democrats if it stays like this.  Even though the Falls Church voters would almost certainly vote on Election Day, you never know, a few might have something come up, etc.  This banks their votes now.  Plus the party doesn't have to worry about them and invest resources last minute on voters who have already turned out.  If a similar thing happens in Philly and its burbs I think that's a good sign.

Pennsylvania is unique among the swing states because it has no-excuse mail voting but no early in-person voting at all (other than dropping off a mail ballot that the voter already requested and was mailed).  Basically the opposite of Texas (highly restrictive mail voting with no COVID excuse, but long period of in-person early voting).  This is why the vagaries of mail voting in PA are getting so much scrutiny. 

That was true until this year - but many counties, at least in Philly/Southeast are opening satellite election offices to basically do pseudo "early voting" this year. I think the Philly ones open this week or next week

The "all-in-one" absentee satellite offices haven't opened yet and are being challenged in court.

They are opening September 29th regardless: https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/philadelphia-early-voting-locations-2020-election-20200918.html

OK, looks promising.  If the whole thing happens under poll worker supervision, a lot of the high profile errors that could invalidate a ballot can be avoided.

The only thing I worry about pessimistically is that because these are new, that no one really knows about them. It would be really great if enough people utilized them, and I hope they do, but I fear many people don't realize they're even opening

If there is any weirdness going on because of expanded mail voting/long in-person early voting, we have a bunch of swing states to use as natural experiments:

AZ: both already in place
FL: both already in place
IA: both already in place, started mailing everyone request forms
MI: switched from excuse required for any early ballots to no excuse in-person and mail in
NC: both already in place
NV: switched to mailing all RV a ballot
PA: switched to no-excuse mail voting only (requires mail ballot procedures regardless of where it's turned in)
VA: switched from excuse required for any early ballots to no excuse in-person and mail in
TX: extended in-person EV only
WI: both already in place, started mailing everyone request forms

[DINGO Joe]

The early enthusiasm thing among Ds is universal.  In fast growing educated Dallas Co Iowa the absentee ballot requests are in the Ds favor 9856 to 5656.  In 2016 it was 6683 to 8141 in the Rs favor.  Now in part that is because the county has gone from a 7300 R voter advantage to a 3000 R voter advantage, but anyway you look at it, it's a big swing in enthusiasm at this point.

[wbrocks67]

The early enthusiasm thing among Ds is universal.  In fast growing educated Dallas Co Iowa the absentee ballot requests are in the Ds favor 9856 to 5656.  In 2016 it was 6683 to 8141 in the Rs favor.  Now in part that is because the county has gone from a 7300 R voter advantage to a 3000 R voter advantage, but anyway you look at it, it's a big swing in enthusiasm at this point.

Yeah, I'm trying not to read too much into these results b/c this year is so much in flux, but the fact that Ds have such a *massive* advantage right now in the mail AND early vote total shows at the very least that enthusiasm is very high.

[ajc0918]

The early enthusiasm thing among Ds is universal.  In fast growing educated Dallas Co Iowa the absentee ballot requests are in the Ds favor 9856 to 5656.  In 2016 it was 6683 to 8141 in the Rs favor.  Now in part that is because the county has gone from a 7300 R voter advantage to a 3000 R voter advantage, but anyway you look at it, it's a big swing in enthusiasm at this point.

Yeah, I'm trying not to read too much into these results b/c this year is so much in flux, but the fact that Ds have such a *massive* advantage right now in the mail AND early vote total shows at the very least that enthusiasm is very high.

Hopefully it allows Dems to focus on sporadic voters if other targets vote early.