Sam Spade's 2010 Predictions

[J. J.]

with the damages to white working-class voters in  MA, I wonder if PA is actually Lean (R) until the Democrats can show some strength with the type

I think it might be more the climate than the candidate.  I think all but one statewide GOP judicial candidate won (it was like 3 out of 4, or something along those lines).

I think at the county level in PA, one incumbent Republican was defeated (there may have been others).  I contributed to his opponent, the Democrat who won.

[J. J.]

Due to the favorable Senate maps they will be looking at in 2012 and 2014, if I were the GOP I'd rather take the Senate than the House,  even though normally the House majority matters more due to the filibuster, because if GOP does take the Senate this year they have an excellent shot at 60 seats by January 2015.

In fact, you could say it is already highly likely that either 2012 or 2014 will be great years for the GOP (2012 if Obama loses, 2014 if he wins), and thus the odds of the Dems having 59 or 60 Senate seats again anytime in the next decade are pretty slim.

I think you hit the nail on the head.

If this year turns into a 9-10 seat gain for the R's, the D's could have modest losses in 2012 and 2014 and be at 40 or below.

[J. J.]

If this year turns into a 9-10 seat gain for the R's, the D's could have modest losses in 2012 and 2014 and be at 40 or below.

Interesting. You're predicting the largest Senate majority for Republicans since the aftermath of the Treaty of Versailles failure in 1921.

And what happened prior to that?  The D's won a string of Senate elections, gaining 24 seats from 1910 to their peak in 1918.  The D's had a gain of 13 seats from 2004 to their peak in 1/2010.  One of the reasons for the D collapse post 1918 was the disproportionally large number of D seats up. 

A similar thing happened with those D's elected in 1974.

[J. J.]

Yours says 30-35 now that I have checked, Sam, and mine says 30.28, so no, it doesn't.

I've been saying that since January.  I still do expect a takeover, at the polls, of either House.

[J. J.]

As of now, Boehner is still probably going to be the next Speaker.

I'm still not saying that.

The 'bots give the GOP a lead (7-12 points), but not gigantic and fluctuating.

The Dems will do badly, but it is a question of how badly.

[J. J.]

I'm still at 43. 

[J. J.]

If Republicans pick up 50-60 seats this year, its going to be almost impossible for Republicans to gain anything more in 2012 because they will have picked up pretty much every possible seat that they can this year and there wont be many more Democrats to defeat.  230-232 seats is basically the ceiling for Republicans in the House. 

Control of redistricting in Indiana, Pennslyvania, and Ohio will help them a little, but there just arent going to be any Democrats left to cut out in these states if Republicans are picking up 12 seats in these states this year.  Since Ohio is losing two seats and Pennslyvania is losing one, Republicans may have to cut some of their own members out in redistricting. 

First, I expect low to mid 40's in the pickup category.

Second, there will probably be a 5-10 seat pickup after redistricting.

Third, long term (by 2017), I think you could be talking about a 280 seat ceiling for the GOP in the House.