Will Swearengin's stronger than expected challenge hurt Manchin?

[UWS]

In the West Virginia Democratic senate primary, Paula Jean Swearengin's challenge to Joe Manchin seems to have been stronger than expected after she received 30 % of the vote. Could Swearengin's stronger than expected challenge hurt Manchin  in the general election?

[Adam Griffin]

Nah. Looking at the results, it appears that there was no disproportionate "protest-voting" occurring en masse among any group in the primary; her support was pretty uniform with a few exceptions. She did somewhat better in areas that are more urban and liberal - and that have Democratic electorates more like the national party - but that could reasonably be expected, and/but it's unlikely those groups are going to vote for the GOP or third-party due to Manchin being too conservative or whatever.

Where protest-voting might have hurt Manchin (the southern part of the state) didn't actually materialize above and beyond levels we saw elsewhere. Usually, if there's a meaningful segment of the Democratic coalition that is getting ready to buck, it shows up there first and foremost. It didn't, which suggests that those conservadems are still with him.

[Alabama_Indy10]

It says a lot that 30% is considered an over-performance.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

It says a lot that 30% is considered an over-performance.

The only poll had her at 9%, so i'd say so.

[Checkard]

In what sense was it stronger than expected? Just averaging up the expectations in the prediction thread would suggest she would have done a few points better.

Anyways some of her voters are gone. Actual DINOS. Some of them, especially in Magnolia for example, voted for her because she was more lefty. They will by and large vote for Manchin in the end.

Lean D Race.

[Lord Admirale]

She still lost by 40 points lol