Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[Andrea]

he options aren't great, from the right I'd expect Anas Sarwar will likely run again and probably be the favourite, a few years ago you'd have expected the left candidate to have been Neil Findlay (but he's retiring) or former deputy leader Alex Rowley (who has basically receded from the spotlight after a sex scandal), now I'd expect it might be perennial candidate and Glasgow Councillor Matt Kerr.

I believe the rules say that the leadership candidates must be MSPs or MPs (or MEPs but this doesn't apply anymore). This would exclude Kerr.

The timeble is the following

Sunday 17 January, midnight
– Deadline for declarations of interest

Monday 18 January
– Nominations open for Leader

Tuesday 19 January, noon
– Nominations close
– Validly nominated candidates for Leadership to be published
– Scottish Labour hustings period opens
– Supporting nominations open

Wednesday 20 January, 5pm
– Last date for members to pay off arrears in order to participate

Tuesday 26 January
– Supporting nominations close

Tuesday 9 February
– Ballot opens
– Scottish Party hustings period closes

Friday 26 February
– Ballot closes

Saturday 27 February
– Result announcement

Meanwhile, the selection ballot for list ranking is also taking place with voting closing on January 29th. Given the state of SLAB, almost (if not all of them) all seats will come from list section. Therefore, the ranking is crucial. However, they didn't seem to have attracted many applications.
Leader and Deputy Leader are guaranteed the top spot in their regions. So Leonard didn't enter the contest. However, now he's not the leader anymore. It seems they agreed to keep him at the top of Central Scotland list.
I suppose stopping and re-run the ballot to allow him to join would have been just a waste of time.

[Andrea]

Scottish Labour regional lists rankings were announced on Monday


Central Scotland
(currently 4 Labour list seats)

1. Richard Leonard MSP
2. Monica Lennon MSP
3. Mark Griffin MSP
4. Monique McAdams
5. Chris Costello
6. Michael McPake

Glasgow
(currently 4 Labour list seats)

1. Pauline McNeill MSP
2. Anas Sarwar MSP
3. Paul Sweeney
4. Pam Duncan-Glancy      
5. James Kelly MSP
6. Eva Murray
7. Craig Carson
8. Hollie Cameron
9. Willie Docherty

Highland & Islands
(currently 2 Labour list seats)

1. Rhoda Grant MSP                
2. John Erskine
3. Marion Donaldson
4. Jo Kirby
5. Coilla Drake
6. Lewis Whyte

Lothian
(currently 1 constituency and 2 list seats)

1. Daniel Johnson MSP (Edinburgh South)
2. Sarah Boyack MSP
3. Foysol Choudhury
4. Maddy Kirkman
5. Nick Ward
6. Kirsteen Sullivan
7. Frederick Hessler
8. Stephen Curran

** after the lists were announced, Nick Ward accepted to be moved to 6th as he was actually outpolled by Kirsteen Sullivan but because gender zipping was ranked above her.


Mid Scotland & Fife
(currently 2 list seats)

1. Claire Baker MSP
2. Alex Rowley MSP
3. Julie MacDougall
4. Craig Miller
5. Chris Kane
6. Ryan Smart
7. Ewan Dillon

North East Scotland
(currently 2 list seats)

1. Michael Marra
2. Mercedes Villalba
3. Barry Black
4. Lynn Thomson
5. Richard McCready
6. Georgia Strachan
7. Kaamal Bola
8. Heather Herbert
9. Owen Wright

South Scotland
(currently 1 constituency and 2 list seats)

1. Colin Smyth MSP
2. Carol Mochan
3. Martin Whitfield
4. Claudia Beamish MSP
5. Kevin McGregor

West Scotland
(currently 1 constituency and 3 list seats)

1. Jackie Baillie MSP (Dunbarton)
2. Neil Bibby MSP
3. Katy Clark
4. Paul O’Kane
5. Johanna Baxter
6. Matt Kerr
7. Francesca Brennan
8. Douglas McAllister
9. Katie Pragnell
10. Gurpreet Singh Johal
11. Ed Grady
12. Nairn McDon


Some notes:

- Only in West they have 12 candidates (maximum number of candidates that can appear on the regional lists).
- Gender zipping was adopted.
- In some regions (West and Lothians) women was pushed down from winnable positions becuase of the gender-zipping rule. Johanna Baxter outpolled Paul O'Kane and Maddy Kirkman outpolled Foysol Choudhury. On the other side, in North East and Glasgow female candidates advanced because of the rule.
- Men topping the lists were asked if they wanted to leave the spot to a woman. Anas Sarwar was the only one doing it. Pauline McNeill (who gets the top Glasgow spot) was actually 4th in the membership ballot behind Sarwar, Paul Sweeney and James Kelly.
- 2 MSPs (James Kelly and Claudia Beamish) are more likely to be out of Holyrood after May.
- Monica Lennon was outpolled by Mark Griffin in Central.
- Leader and Deputy Leader are put automatically at the top. Leonard resigned after the ballot started. So he wasn't on the ballot paper. They kept it in the top spot instead of stopping and re-runnng Central selection. In September he wanted women at the top of each regional lists...now he didn't renounce to his top spot in favour of Lennon.

Retiring: Neil Findlay, Mary Fee, Elaine Smith, David Stewart, Iain Gray, Jenny Marra, Lewis McDonald, Ken McIntosh (presiding officer) and Johanna Lamont (I presume since she hasn't entered the list ballot).

[Andrea]

- 2 MSPs (James Kelly and Claudia Beamish) are more likely to be out of Holyrood after May.

=

Slight difference - Kelly still has a small chance in Rutherglen, where he only narrowly lost, whereas Beamish is from the Clydesdale area (Labour were third last time, I believe). But yes, they are more likely than not to be out.

Narrowly in current SLAB context means being behind 11% in 2016.
But yes, I agree it is one of their best targets. Also because the bad publicity of the local (now ex) SNP Westminster MP.

[Andrea]

In West of Scotland, sitting MSP Maurice Corry has been dumped down to 8th place in the Conservative list.
Jackson Carlow is first. New candidate Russell Findlay is in second spot. Sitting MSP  Jamie Greene is third. New candidate Pam Gosal is 4th

In Highlands list, the top of the list is exactly the same as 2016: Douglas Ross followed by Edward Mountain, Donald Cameron and Jamie Halcro Johnston.