Change in conventional wisdom?

[MT Treasurer]

The initial favorable takes (which were blatantly/ridiculously exaggerating how "disengaged" or "low-propensity" the R base is & how favorable the Senate map is for Democrats & how much actual swing voters will care about the actions of the Trump administration in 2022 & how much this administration will defy or overcome cyclical dynamics) were always wishful thinking, regardless of any result of any special election (which I tend to agree shouldn’t be overinterpreted), be it in TX or elsewhere.

[MT Treasurer]

Regression to the mean.  Expected outcome has always been a mildly Republican year, enough that the House is a near certain flip, but the Senate still could go either way.

It’s strongly debatable whether the Senate could go "either way" in a mildly Republican year if D.C. and PR aren’t added. "Either way" to me implies a 50/50 situation, which probably would require a neutral year rather than a "mildly Republican" one given the partisan leans of the battleground states.

[MT Treasurer]

Regression to the mean.  Expected outcome has always been a mildly Republican year, enough that the House is a near certain flip, but the Senate still could go either way.

It’s strongly debatable whether the Senate could go "either way" in a mildly Republican year if D.C. and PR aren’t added. "Either way" to me implies a 50/50 situation, which probably would require a neutral year rather than a "mildly Republican" one given the partisan leans of the battleground states.

That's fair, but one is probably 60/40 R and the other is 90/10 R.

How would you rank the seats from most likely to least to go R, out of curiosity? Mine is FL>WI>NC>PA>AZ>NH>NV>GA.

[MT Treasurer]

Regression to the mean.  Expected outcome has always been a mildly Republican year, enough that the House is a near certain flip, but the Senate still could go either way.

It’s strongly debatable whether the Senate could go "either way" in a mildly Republican year if D.C. and PR aren’t added. "Either way" to me implies a 50/50 situation, which probably would require a neutral year rather than a "mildly Republican" one given the partisan leans of the battleground states.

That's fair, but one is probably 60/40 R and the other is 90/10 R.

How would you rank the seats from most likely to least to go R, out of curiosity? Mine is FL>WI>NC>PA>AZ>NH>NV>GA.

I'm going to be a bit contrarian.

Generally:

FL>WI>NC>NV>AZ>PA>GA>NH


With Sununu:

FL>WI>NC>NV>AZ>NH>PA>GA

They are at huge risk of blowing it in heavily Hispanic areas, but probably holding up better than expected in the North.

Thanks! I like those, too. NV this far to the right of PA is surely bold (even though I agree with you that the D strength/firewall there is overblown), but this is very plausible.