UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[CumbrianLefty]

Surely the only question still unresolved at this point is whether the SGP vote against or abstain - at this moment I agree with those who suspect the latter, but who knows.

[Oryxslayer]

I saw something that said Holyrood laws around a hypothetically successful VONC are overly complex, could someone with more knowledge explain. Like for example something about a 2/3s vote needed to actually dissolve the chamber, something that would still likely happen in the event it becomes necessary cause normal business would cease to function, but still interesting.

[afleitch]

Yes. Basically a VONC doesn't dissolve the parliament. The First Minister would be out, but Parliament still has 28 days to find a successor who needs a simple majority vote even with abstentions. Only after that, or a 2/3rds vote would there be an extraordinary general election.

Which no one wants because it's a UK GE 'year' and any new administration has it's mandate up by May 2026.

[afleitch]

Basically no one wants an election in the late summer that will probably produce a result where no party can govern without significant cross-party support even with abstention. Labour as the largest party with the Tories dry humping their leg isn't something it wants for 2026 never mind this year.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1783527120653660338

[Torrain]

As a reminder, here's the vote total in Holyrood:

• SNP - 63
• Opposition - 65 (31 Tories, 22 Lab, 7 Greens, 4 Lib Dems, 1 Alba)
• Presiding Officer - 1

Humza Yousaf's political credibility now lies in a single pair of hands. A pair of hands he said "was no great loss to the SNP". Ash Regan will probably cast the deciding vote (either a tie, or a loss of confidence in Yousaf) - which is, objectively, the funniest outcome.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Every single e-gate in the UK has failed. If this were the first e-gate failure ever, there would be cause for concern. But this is the second e-gate failure in less than a year after what I have reason to believe was two decades of consistent service. I'm surprised that this story has remained confined to tabloids and social media.

There needs to be a serious inquiry as to why e-gates keep failing. I would suggest that they be completely disabled for a few weeks, so they can be upgraded with functional technology, but this is the least of the issues facing airports. Air traffic control coincidentally failed in the UK and Greece last August, and we have all seen what happened with Boeing's build quality and United Airlines' DEI policy.

If this many parts of the (global) commercial aviation ecosystem are breaking down within a matter of months, then it is facing its fourth-worst crisis in history after 9/11, the transatlantic bomb plot, and coronavirus. I do not say this lightly - never before (except maybe August 1985) has there been such a widespread failure of aviation, as opposed to a singular emergency or impediment to air travel.

[Torrain]

Slater says the decision to vote down Yousaf was unanimous amongst the 7 Greens.. She and Harvie are basically turning their press conference into a campaign speech calling for progressive voters to defect from the SNP.

It ended with Harvie grinning darkly, and saying "you'll have lots of drama to follow next week", before he and Slater jauntily walked away.

[YL]

Humza Yousaf's political credibility now lie in a single pair of hands. A pair of hands he said "was no great loss to the SNP". Ash Regan will probably cast the deciding vote - which is, objectively, the funniest outcome.

So what happens next?

Scenario 1: Regan supports Yousaf, and he hangs on, but hardly in a strong position.

Scenario 2: Regan abstains or votes against, so the VONC carries. Formally to trigger automatic resignation it's supposed to be a VONC in the Government, rather than the First Minister, but he'd surely be under much pressure to resign. No new FM is chosen within the 28 day window, triggering a snap election. The date is chosen by the Presiding Officer; are we looking at September?

Scenario 3: As scenario 2, but Yousaf is replaced as SNP leader and FM (by whom? Forbes?) and Regan falls in line, avoiding the election, but how on earth would that work with the factional battles within the SNP?

[Torrain]

Those all seem fairly plausible. I would add a scenario 4 though - where Regan's terms are in bad-faith, and Yousaf doubles down, daring her to vote against the SNP. She's already announced her demands are on independence, and women's rights - which could mean capitulation to her gender critical approach on several issues (which would be anathema to the wing of SNP activists who elected Yousaf in the first place, leaving him without a political base).

The thing is - even if he gets Regan's support, he looks incredible fragile, and unlikely to get legislation through parliament before the general election (which becomes even more of a risk to him).

Unless he's got an ace up his sleeve, he just looks like a lame duck right now. I'm not sure we can rule resignation out. Salmond weathered an environment like this for a full term, but Yousaf is just not built like that, and the environemnt is totally different.

[Tintrlvr]

Humza Yousaf's political credibility now lie in a single pair of hands. A pair of hands he said "was no great loss to the SNP". Ash Regan will probably cast the deciding vote - which is, objectively, the funniest outcome.

So what happens next?

Scenario 1: Regan supports Yousaf, and he hangs on, but hardly in a strong position.

Scenario 2: Regan abstains or votes against, so the VONC carries. Formally to trigger automatic resignation it's supposed to be a VONC in the Government, rather than the First Minister, but he'd surely be under much pressure to resign. No new FM is chosen within the 28 day window, triggering a snap election. The date is chosen by the Presiding Officer; are we looking at September?

Scenario 3: As scenario 2, but Yousaf is replaced as SNP leader and FM (by whom? Forbes?) and Regan falls in line, avoiding the election, but how on earth would that work with the factional battles within the SNP?

Someone would defect to the Greens or sit as an independent if Forbes takes over in this context, surely.

[Conservatopia]

Despite Afleitch's lame attempt at cope, this all proves once again that Yousaf is the Rishi of Scotland. He's oh so slick and talented but in reality, just not that good at politics.

And now he's made himself Ash Regan's bitch. Hilarious.

[Torrain]

this all proves once again that Yousaf is the Rishi of Scotland.

You're giving him too much credit. Sunak will probably survive until the election, and will be able to point to the Windsor Framework and some minor domestic policy wins.

Yousaf's chances of surviving long enough to fight for re-election seem increasingly slim and he's now legislatively hamstrung, largely through his own mismanagement. He's alienated key partners through petty jibes, and has negative approval ratings even amongst 2021 SNP voters.

He's not Sunak - he's a Tartan Truss.

[Oryxslayer]

Humza Yousaf's political credibility now lie in a single pair of hands. A pair of hands he said "was no great loss to the SNP". Ash Regan will probably cast the deciding vote - which is, objectively, the funniest outcome.

So what happens next?

Scenario 1: Regan supports Yousaf, and he hangs on, but hardly in a strong position.

Scenario 2: Regan abstains or votes against, so the VONC carries. Formally to trigger automatic resignation it's supposed to be a VONC in the Government, rather than the First Minister, but he'd surely be under much pressure to resign. No new FM is chosen within the 28 day window, triggering a snap election. The date is chosen by the Presiding Officer; are we looking at September?

Scenario 3: As scenario 2, but Yousaf is replaced as SNP leader and FM (by whom? Forbes?) and Regan falls in line, avoiding the election, but how on earth would that work with the factional battles within the SNP?

Those all seem fairly plausible. I would add a scenario 4 though - where Regan's terms are in bad-faith, and Yousaf doubles down, daring her to vote against the SNP. She's already announced her demands are on independence, and women's rights - which could mean capitulation to her gender critical approach on several issues (which would be anathema to the wing of SNP activists who elected Yousaf in the first place, leaving him without a political base).

The thing is - even if he gets Regan's support, he looks incredible fragile, and unlikely to get legislation through parliament before the general election (which becomes even more of a risk to him).

Unless he's got an ace up his sleeve, he just looks like a lame duck right now. I'm not sure we can rule resignation out. Salmond weathered an environment like this for a full term, but Yousaf is just not built like that, and the environemnt is totally different.

Lets discuss an new scenario 5 since that is seemingly circulating in the press right now: Yousaf is considering resigning before the vote, basically admitting defeat. Could the SNP even get a leader in place in enough time given the infighting and party issues right now? But at the same time, would the other pro-Indie groups let things fall in such a situation?

[EastAnglianLefty]

A lot of the Green anger is clearly towards Yousaf specifically - otherwise it seems unlikely there would have been an unanimous decision to vote No Confidence (assuming this is true.) It's possible another SNP leader could convince them to think again, but there would probably have to be a policy concession to sweeten the deal.

And I presume that in the interim the new leader would have to be Keith Brown as Depute Leader. Whether he would want to do that long-term, if he'd face a leadership challenge and how SNP members would break in that hypothetical contest are all different questions.

I'd add that even if Yousaf does survive this, the SNP constitution appears to allow for annual elections. I would assume that this whole affair has damaged his credibility enough that somebody (Forbes?) will try to take a run at him over the summer.

[Torrain]

Keith Brown is... not a respected figure in Scottish politics - Yousaf didn't even invite him to join the cabinet. If the SNP need an interim First Minister, I'm pretty sure it'll end up being John Sweeney, who's the only one of the SNP's old guard who hasn't retired from Holyrood, or had a formal discussion with Police Scotland over the past few years. He was Deputy FM for close to a decade, and is the sort of bland, reliable grandee they could use to fill the vacancy while a contested leadership election occurs.

The smoothest option though, is presumably Yousaf resigning to let one of his allies stand (it would presumably have to be Neil Gray, given Mhairi McAllan is several months pregnant), with Forbes etc standing aside in return for a couple of cabinet seats. The new candidate is coronated unopposed as SNP leader, and wins a plurality for the office of FM, establishing a new minority administration. A new face, could try for a fresh start with the opposition parties, and with a more ideologically balanced cabinet, could seek support from different parties depending on the legislation.

That's the best case scenario for the SNP under Oryxslayer's scenario 5. If the leadership is contested, it means either caretaker Yousaf (which seems unsustainable) or interim FM, which throws up a bunch of procedural issues during the FM vote, where the opposition could cause trouble if they align against the SNP.

[afleitch]

Swinney is the most unobjectionable leader from a party and media engagement perspective. If he wants the job, he will likely get it unchallenged.

Those who really want the job will not want it now or frankly any time before the next Holyrood election.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Albeit that that is somewhat dependent on the result of the next Westminster election and which SNP parliamentarians find themselves on the hunt for a seat. Most of the SNP talent is at Holyrood, but there are a couple of Westminster figures who would presumably do respectably in a leadership contest and some of them are in seats that are at least somewhat vulnerable.

[Torrain]

Quick update on the state of play:

• Greens have confirmed (after some early morning wobbles that leaked) that they'll be voting against Yousaf.
• Labour have launched a separate VONC against *the government* which would, if successful, compel ministers to resign and vacate the office of First Minister (as compared to the more symbolic VONC against Yousaf that the Tories called).
• Greens have said their position on Labour's motion would depend on who's leading ScotGov next week.

• Yousaf has cancelled his trip to Glasgow, and the keynote independence speech he had scheduled. He's now headed to Dundee instead, reportedly to make an announcement on housing policy to try and grab back the narrative.
• Ash Regan has published some vague confidence and supply demands, and seems to be writing poetry on twitter while she chats to JK Rowling about how girls run the world (I'm not joking)

Edit: Yousaf's housing trip will be accompanied by the announcement of an £80 million investment in affordable housing. This would be laudable if he hadn't cut the housing budget by £196 million in his last budget - under the circumstances, it just feels desperate.

[afleitch]

Albeit that that is somewhat dependent on the result of the next Westminster election and which SNP parliamentarians find themselves on the hunt for a seat. Most of the SNP talent is at Holyrood, but there are a couple of Westminster figures who would presumably do respectably in a leadership contest and some of them are in seats that are at least somewhat vulnerable.

Well yes; there may be an influx of former MP's who make the move to Holyrood which (being a better organised bunch) would give the party, even in opposition, a better pool of talent.

Westminster leader Stephen Flynn won Aberdeen South against expectations in 2019 rather than enter Holyrood as expected.


https://twitter.com/Scott_Wortley/status/1783793030794715317

A useful run down of how the 'no confidence to election' pipeline works. Which ultimately could be a 'dog catches car' moment for those proposing it.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Regan has announced she'll be voting against the VoNC in the government as a whole. Not a massive surprise, but makes a snap election less likely.

[Torrain]

Yousaf has been speaking in Dundee. He says he’ll speak to each party leader today to gauge support. Line is still that he’s going to fight and win the VONC - and that his impromptu housing event is “proof he’s getting on the with the job”, rather than an attempt to wrest back the narrative.

Oddly, he then launched into a monologue about how it was incumbent on opposition parties to “make minority government work”. Pretty brazen given he’s the one who triggered the political instability in the first place - and hardly endearing to the leaders who still hold his fate in their hands.

[CumbrianLefty]

He's really not very good at this stuff.

Having him as leader *might* have worked passably well in the SNP (and Green) majority days.

[Torrain]

Regan has announced she'll be voting against the VoNC in the government as a whole. Not a massive surprise, but makes a snap election less likely.

That tracks. Alba sources were briefing against it as soon as it was announced. If they can hit 3-5% in the polls, they could get enough list MSPs to survive. But losing Regan now, and then both their MPs in the autumn would probably be the end of them.

[Storr]

"Several Britons charged in a plot to burn down a warehouse of a Ukrainian shipping company in East London, allegedly on orders of Russia’s Wagner Group."

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-68899130.amp

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1783876228409348169