How do you see the next British General Election going? Who wins?

[CumbrianLefty]

This really *is* an instance of "its still far too early to say".

Seriously, ask me in about 18 months and I might at least be able to tentatively suggest something.

[CumbrianLefty]

This latest MRP survey is by Focaldata, not YouGov.

[CumbrianLefty]

Way too early to say.  Probably biggest challenge Tories have is they have been in power for 14 years and generally longer a party is in power, the more the desire for change and swings can happen.  Still Tories do have some advantages and disadvantages.

Tory advantages: Tories have a much more efficient vote and redistribution likely to help so they can lose the popular vote and still win more seats while only need a 2-3 point national lead to win a majority.  Rishni Sunak is very popular and if BoJo becomes too much of a liability, I could see party changing leaders which has seemed to work well for them. 

Labour advantages: Labour winning a majority is very unlikely for simple reason is without Scotland, I don't see how they get one, whereas Tories don't need Scotland.  But at same time since they have more allies, as long as Tories + Irish unionist parties get less than half the seats, Labour will likely be able to form government even if they win fewer seats than Tories as SNP would likely back a Labour government and even Liberal Democrats have signaled more open to a Labour than Tory.

Still election is such a long ways away that at this point making predictions is a fool's errand.

But that at least is the sort of thing that can, and indeed does, change over time.

Labour had a similar "built in advantage" for a while after 1997 (indeed it started in 1992)

[CumbrianLefty]

And the UK press was arguably the most insanely biased it has *ever* been in 2019 (which for those of us who recall what they were like in the Thatcher years, speaks for itself)

The idea they will be no different at all confronted by a Starmer-led Labour doesn't overly convince.

[CumbrianLefty]

Whilst the press are undoubtedly skewed towards us the broadcasters aren't.  I would be interested to know how much the newspaper bias really matters anyway.
After all if you are reading the Mail/Sun/Express/Times/Torygraph you probably aren't a Labour voter anyway.  So I kind of doubt that the biased press has as much impact as you (or they) think.

Nice try, however this completely ignores how they influence the broadcast media.

Which they do, massively.

[CumbrianLefty]

Whilst the press are undoubtedly skewed towards us the broadcasters aren't.  I would be interested to know how much the newspaper bias really matters anyway.
After all if you are reading the Mail/Sun/Express/Times/Torygraph you probably aren't a Labour voter anyway.  So I kind of doubt that the biased press has as much impact as you (or they) think.

Nice try, however this completely ignores how they influence the broadcast media.

Which they do, massively.

That's fair. I hate biased media as much as the next man, even when it's biased in my favour.
But are you sure this bias is really that widespread and has that much impact on Labour?

Yes, and yes. And it reached genuinely insane levels at the last GE.

Of course, what you say about Change UK is nonetheless quite true and fair - but what that arguably shows is that media support isn't enough *in the absence of literally anything else*

[CumbrianLefty]

Though actual "dead tree" newspaper sales are still on a relentless decline.

Unfortunately, the possible beneficial effects of that on political discourse are lessened not just by the already mentioned way they influence the broadcast media (which has, if anything, *increased* in recent years) but they way their headlines still blare at people from supermarkets and petrol stations.

Make them like the old porn mags, sold from "beneath the counter" to consenting adults only

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm not sure the Media 'lionised' remain; it was just the media that remain supporters read did so.

The media when it actually reported on the Lib Dems in the last election was quite brutal as they just asked two questions- why did you support x in coalition & why do you want to overturn the referendum?

On the subject of newspapers my uncle reads the Daily Mail for the coverage of the royal family & celebrity gossip while being a lifelong socialist (and the son of a communist)

Equally I read the Times- partly for work due to their business section/ST reporting but also because their cricket coverage is good & I enjoy the obituarys/book reviews. I ignore most of the comment stuff (even the stuff I agree with) and despise their support for the anti-trans rights campaign- people's media comsumption is very weird!

Personally speaking, the Times forfeited any residual respect with its basically completely invented "SCARY MUSLAMICS ARE COMING TO TAKE AWAY YOUR CHILDREN!!" front page, for which it has faced literally zero sanction (I would have forcibly shut it down for a significant period)

[CumbrianLefty]

Is there a significant truth to the notion that the media is now giving the Scottish independence movement the Corbyn treatment?

Perhaps no more so than usual, the London media especially have never been its friends.

[CumbrianLefty]

I kind of doubt a majority of 80, even granting the one-off Brexit factor, will be overturned in a single election

It has happened before.

And its quite possible to argue 2019 wasn't a "normal" election in significant respects anyway.

Of course the Tories might well win again, but if they do it won't be simply down to inertia because the previous majority was "too big".

[CumbrianLefty]

I think the former reason might also have something to it tbh.

[CumbrianLefty]

Indeed, they are already starting to decline - from admittedly a very high level.

Which leaves the personal questions about BoJo - not just if he has fully recovered from his brush with death (or, perhaps, ever will) but the background chatter that he is bored and wants more money.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its not *just* his pro-Brexit stance tbf (though that is of course pretty fundamental to his perception I agree) but his willingness to indulge culture war tropism *when it suits him*.

His supporters laugh off stuff like "bum boys" and "watermelon smiles" with the claim that "its Boris" and he doesn't "really" believe it. Whereas its the sort of thing many of his detractors will remember.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its not *just* his pro-Brexit stance tbf (though that is of course pretty fundamental to his perception I agree) but his willingness to indulge culture war tropism *when it suits him*.

His supporters laugh off stuff like "bum boys" and "watermelon smiles" with the claim that "its Boris" and he doesn't "really" believe it. Whereas its the sort of thing many of his detractors will remember.

Maybe, but that makes him no less centrist.  You can be a centrist culture warrior.  Heck, you can be a centrist racist.

You certainly can, but few of those types are actually "out and proud" about it.

[CumbrianLefty]

There are quite a few people who will vote for "Boris" but not any other likely Tory leader.

[CumbrianLefty]

On the culture war note has anybody paid any attention to Nandy?

She's always been like that. Likeable and talented, but also erratic and unreliable.