Australia 2022 Election

[n1240]

The Coalition picks up Gilmore, first seat called to switch hands either way.

Who called this seat? Can't imagine this seat would be called with only 25% of the vote reporting.

[n1240]

Pretty early in WA but some of the first preference votes look real nasty for Liberals there. Massive swings in few poling places reported so far in Perth-based seats. Double digit swings away from Liberal on first preference in these seats, Labor leading on very preliminary TPP in Moore and Pearce.

[n1240]

Looking at results this morning, I've got the following:

Labor: 74 (71 called, plus Lingiari, Macnamara and Richmond where they look in a strong enough position)
Coalition: 54 (52 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 4 (3 called plus Brisbane)
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10!! (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth)

Still in doubt: 7

• Bennelong: Labor ahead.
• Deakin: Labor ahead.
• Gilmore: Labor ahead by an absolute whisker. Wouldn't be surprised if it flips at this stage.
• Lyons: Labor ahead. One of the big shocks of the night for me, it will be very tight.
• Menzies: Liberals ahead and I'd be surprised if they didn't retain.
• Moore: Liberals ahead. Not on my radar at all! WA seat so anything could happen here.
• Sturt: Absolute knife-edge. Liberal ahead by less than 100 votes at last count.

So Labor still a good chance of taking a majority, but it will be close.

Looks like Coalition is still very strong on postal votes, based on partial counts in various seats. I'd expect Labor to lose Gilmore and Bennelong, and probably Deakin as well. Labor is doing well enough on postal votes in Lyons though that they'll hold on. Sturt, Menzies, and Moore aren't going to be that close after postal count finishes. So winning Lyons while losing the other four narrow seats they're currently very competitive in puts them at 74 seats (excluding Richmond from your count).

Thus, I think the path to a Labor majority may require winning both Brisbane and Richmond. Brisbane will be determined by whether Greens or Labor preference in 2nd place. Greens are doing pretty poorly on the initial postal vote in Brisbane, so it seems like Labor could have a decent path to finishing 2nd, depending on how the minor candidates preferenced between Greens and Labor. Richmond, realistically any of the combos between Greens, Labor, and Nationals could finish in the top 2, would expect that Labor won't have any issue finishing in first over Greens or Nationals in top 2 race, but it's possible they're in third in top three preferences this preventing them from winning the seat.

edit: thinking about Macnamara a bit, they may be a similar boat as Richmond where Labor finishes in 3rd among top three preferences, possibly putting some doubt on that seat.