2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election

[Gary J]

I backed Swinson rather than Davey last time, as I thought that as a coalition junior minister she was less vulnerable to Labour attack than a former cabinet minister would be. I failed to appreciate how un-nuanced the Labour attack machine would be.

As any LD leader would obviously be attacked as a Tory sympathiser, even if they were not in Parliament during the coalition, we might as well elect Davey this time. He is by far the most experienced of the likely candidates. None of the newer MPs seem so outstanding that they should be fast tracked into the leadership, this time. 

[Gary J]

Since 2015 Scottish politics has been mostly based not on the traditional left/right divide, but a nationalist/unionist cleavage. The SNP has won most Scottish seats. In seats where the SNP do not win, the locally leading unionist party has usually received tactical votes from supporters of the other unionist parties.

Scottish Labour can be perceived as de facto allies of the Scottish Conservatives, which discourages voters who used to support them from abandoning the SNP. This has the knock on effect of making the average SNP supporter more left wing than they used to be. It is notable that most current SNP held constituencies used to be super safe for the Labour Party, whereas some of the areas which the SNP won in before 2015 now elect Conservative MPs.

The Scottish Liberal Democrats may not have many strong supporters in Scotland, but in the areas where they remain the lead unionist option they can still win some seats. I suspect the only reason Jo Swinson lost was because her high UK anti-Brexit and anti-Corbyn profile discouraged the crucial 150 or so additional tactical votes that she needed. If she had not been the party leader, Swinson would have been re-elected as easily as the other Scottish Lib Dem MPs.

[Gary J]

As to targeting, the Liberal Democrats will have to wait for the proposed 2021 boundary review to report before they can start firming up a target list. If the current Parliamentary Constituencies Bill gets into law and unless something completely unexpected cuts the present Parliament short, the next general election will be fought on different boundaries from the last few.

[Gary J]

Is there anyone suggesting the LDs dissolve given their recent disasters, 2015, 2019, leadership switches by the day?

No. The Liberal Democrats are far stronger now than the Liberal Party was in the 1950s.