Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[AndyHogan14]

Watching CNN live. Matt Chance reporting from Kiev is talking on video, 7:05am in the morning there, and air raid sirens started going off in the background.

Re the UN, if you want to go lawyer mode technicalities, the charters don't mention the Russian Federation, they say the Soviet Union. It's a functional change made to the UN that's never been put in the paperwork because reforming the UN is more impossible than amending the U.S. Constitution.

I have had the live stream of Kyiv in the background all day and let me tell you, I was jolted up when the air raid sirens went off. As far as the UN is concerned, it's a nice idea but it is pretty much worthless when one of the five permanent members have a stake in whatever is being debated. It would be pretty hilarious to see Russia kicked from the Security Council due to a technicality though.

[AndyHogan14]

Can this thread not devolve into a debate over immigration? Thanks.

[AndyHogan14]

You have to love the Irish!
https://twitter.com/CAugustenborg/status/1497226277882892296?s=20&t=aXAJCzu5...

[AndyHogan14]

The main difference between the German Volkssturm in 1945 and Ukrainian civilians today is certainly a significantly different level in morale. My own grandfather deserted before he could be drafted into the Volkssturm.

An infinitely less noisome and likely much more relevant analogy from German history would be the Landwehr regiments of 1813-15. They might not have been as effective as regulars, but they were still useful, as motivation and morale were high enough to partially overcome their deficiencies in training and equipment.

But that was before the era of motorization and ariel support.  Another one I can think of would be the 2003 Iraq Fedayeen but in that case, they did get some training months in advance and mostly turned out to be ineffective.

Speaking of which, how is the Ukrainian air force doing? Do we have any idea?

I saw something that said that they were still active, but not much more. I think it is safe to say that the Russians have air superiority, but not supremacy.

[AndyHogan14]

When was the last time we saw Putin live on camera? Was it that bizarre staged meeting about recognizing the DPR and LPR?* Perhaps there is some truth to the report floating out there that he is in a bunker in the Urals.

*The war declaration video was prerecorded, right?

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497810547059740674?s=20&t=QeszRh...

Hopefully the Ukrainian military can expel the Russians and retake full control of the city.

[AndyHogan14]

Sigh, Kharkiv is falling.

Evidently it was likely a Russian convoy that got lost?!?

They got LOST and entered the city?! Good Lord, if that is the case, it is just further proof that the Russian effort is a mess. They might still end up "winning" (whatever that might be), but it almost seems like they are cartoonishly inept at times.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498098770273312769

Belarus Jets???

Is this the upcoming "5 AM Airdrop" ?

If so am assuming they are providing close tactical support against Ukrainian Air Defense systems.

The thing is I'm not sure which 05:00. Belarus uses Moscow time (05:00 in 15 minutes) while Ukraine uses EET (05:00 in 1 hour and 15 minutes). I'd assume Belarus would plan using the time zone the country itself uses. It's the final countdown either way, I suppose.

I have also heard that it could be 5:00 tomorrow to allow the "peace talks" to take place. When they inevitably fail, then that is Lukashenko's casus belli. But who knows? I am inclined to think it's 5:00 today (2/28), Moscow time.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1498188528638902275?s=20&t=BHhQ5YG...
Google Translation:

Total estimated losses 🇷🇺 from 24.02 to 28.02 as of 6.00
 Aircraft 29
 helicopters 29
 Tanks 191
 Armored fighting vehicles 816
 Cannon 74
 SAM BEECH 1
 City 21
 Automotive 291
 Tanks 60
 UAV OTR 3
 Ships / boats 2
 Air Defense Means 5
 Personnel approximately 5300 (to be specified)

Even if the number of Russians killed were half what is being reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, it would be astonishing. If it really is over 5,000? Wow.

[AndyHogan14]

Google Translation:

Total estimated losses 🇷🇺 from 24.02 to 28.02 as of 6.00
 Aircraft 29
 helicopters 29
 Tanks 191
 Armored fighting vehicles 816
 Cannon 74
 SAM BEECH 1
 City 21
 Automotive 291
 Tanks 60
 UAV OTR 3
 Ships / boats 2
 Air Defense Means 5
 Personnel approximately 5300 (to be specified)

Even if the number of Russians killed were half what is being reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, it would be astonishing. If it really is over 5,000? Wow.

Take it with a huge grain of salt. The progress of the war so far is consistent with a Russian:Ukrainian death ratio of around 3:1 to 4:1.

For sure. But again, even half of the reported number is quite a bit.

[AndyHogan14]

According to the Guardian, the "peace talks" will begin at 9:00am GMT/12:00pm in Belarus.

[AndyHogan14]

Then Putin should stop what he's doing. His invasion is only emboldening groups like them.

[AndyHogan14]

Seems like light progress was made

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1498343519609573380

I think the best case scenario for these talks is pretty much status quo ante bellum with the LPR keeping some of its gains and the North Crimean Canal remaining unobstructed.

Overall, the best case scenario for Ukraine is to hold out long enough and hope that Putin's regime collapses and in the chaos, the Ukrainians are able to retake their entire country (including Crimea). The best case scenario for Russia is collapse of the Ukrainian government and taking complete military control of the country while remaining an international pariah and dealing with a bloody insurgency. Seems to me like the Russians' best case scenario really isn't that great...

[AndyHogan14]

We, the Presidents of the EU member states: the Republic of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, the Republic of Estonia, the Republic of Latvia, the Republic of Lithuania, the Republic of Poland, the Slovak Republic, and the Republic of Slovenia strongly believe that Ukraine deserves receiving an immediate EU accession perspective.

Therefore, we call on the EU Member States to consolidate highest political support to Ukraine and enable the EU institutions to conduct steps to immediately grant Ukraine a EU candidate country status and open the process of negotiations.

In this critical moment, we reiterate our full solidarity with Ukraine and its People.

Link: https://www.hrad.cz/en/for-media/press-releases/open-letter-by-presidents-in-support-of-ukraines-swift-candidacy-to-the-european-union-16316

Interesting, even if it is extremely unlikely to happen.

[AndyHogan14]

This should have been done on day one:
https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1498682810659442689?s=20&t=TMIYPWmpe...

Distribute leaflets among those comically exposed columns...

[AndyHogan14]

While I deeply hope China is able to bring peace and end this war, the text that I chose to bold interests me. The choice of words is not unique to China and I have seen others say that, but given that China considers Taiwan to be part of its territory I cannot help but see this as the CCP preparing their talking points for a coming invasion.

I wouldn't be as pessimistic. The situation of 'two Chinas' is distinctly unique. While China claims Taiwan, strictly speaking constitutionally, Taiwan claims China. If anything Russia's stumbling into Crimea in the first instance and now Ukraine, with the international repercussions will have made PRC rethink whatever long term or short term plans it had for Taiwan.

And as someone has mentioned, with Europe under the guise of the EU beefing up it's defences and adjusting it's diplomacy in response to Russia, it gives the US a greater ability to look towards the Pacific and no doubt may hasten Japan into a degree of militarisation if the post-war and post-cold war order of certain countries remaining neutral (eg Finland) is disrupted.

     That is a good point, given how badly the invasion has gone for Russia. It hadn't occurred to me that China might genuinely be rethinking a belligerent stance since Ukraine didn't just immediately fold like it seemed it might.

Also, it is a hell of a lot more difficult to invade an island than it is to invade a country that you border on three sides.

[AndyHogan14]

The biggest problem with the Western doves is that they truly have no red line. To them, anything to prevent something that would slightly raise the risk of a nuclear exchange is something which ought to be strived for at any cost. I am firmly convinced Putin could start sending Ukrainians to literal death camps (this is not excessive hyperbole for several posters have said there is no red line) and would not be stopped from doing it out of Western fear.

There are obviously risks inherent with escalation, but a lot of people seem to have the immediate assumption that any direct involvement=apocalypse. As if those on the Russian side want to do Moscow turned into oblivion and their children dead. Yes we have real stakes in the game, but so do they. That’s why they will fold when pressure gets too high, and the only reason they are doing this now is because they truly want to test the boundaries. The problem is, the West doesn’t have boundaries. In our post-Cold War society, we became accustomed to the idea of no inherent risk of nuclear exchange at all, and now seem attached to that idea at a horrifying cost.

Make no mistake, a world in which Russia invaded Ukraine is not one which will ever resemble a world in which they didn’t, even if we sing the songs of appeasement out of fear.

You’re an insane warmonger, and nobody should take anything you say seriously. The amount of death and destruction a conventional war between NATO and Russia would cause would be catastrophic. And yes, anything that slightly increases the risk of nuclear hellfire raining from the sky, killing all advanced life on Earth, should be avoided at all costs. The West has done plenty to support Ukraine and will hopefully do more in the future, but war with Russia is untenable. And stop with the hyperbole, get a hobby or something.

You’re also being hyperbolic.

Stripping away everything else, there is a legitimate question to ask:

Is there anything Putin does or might do that would justify direct action against him?

Curious what people have to say.

If he does start committing genocide against the Ukrainian people (it's unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility, which is scary), that would be my red line. I think US/NATO troops should have entered Ukraine before the invasion to head off any sort of Russian action (thus, actually being peacekeepers) but alas, that ship has sailed.

Edit: Also, utilizing nuclear weapons would be a red line. Anything else, I am not so sure.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1498638037873577991
We're now seeing active resistance in Belarus.  This isn't a shock, considering the nationwide protests last year.  I have to wonder what Putin is thinking, dragging Belarus into the war.  Because he's definitely taking a risk here.  Its hard to say how significant of a risk it is, but I doubt its worth it unless he thinks he needs Belarus' army.  In which case, lol.

I could very easily see a coup (or hell, a revolution) in Minsk before Moscow at this point. Russian troops are preoccupied in Ukraine, Belarusian forces are in Ukraine as well (and I am sure their morale is lower than the Russians) so if there is ever a time to try and topple Lukashenko, it's probably now.

[AndyHogan14]

Updated battlefield situation:

Russians are still slow & ineffective, but slowly gaining ground and encircling areas with stiff resistance.

https://twitter.com/TruthsUnchained/status/1498806054418845701

Can Putin survive 30 days? The Russian economy is in shambles and we are only two days into the sanctions—if it takes a month for Kyiv to fall, I would bet that Putin will fall before Kyiv. Perhaps that is wishful thinking, but considering that Putin thought Kyiv would have fallen by now, 30 more days has got to hurt for him.

[AndyHogan14]

Good analysis in this Twitter thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickForVA/status/1498702036363210754

Between analysis like this showing how Russian victory isn't a done deal, analysis showing how Russian victory is a done deal, analysis showing how it might take a month for Kiev to fall, the halting & logistical problems of the Kiev convoy, Belarus troops seemingly entering Ukraine + the destruction of Kharkiv & the Russian economy, I have no clue what to make of the trajectory of the conflict.

I think it is pretty clear that absent a coup in Moscow (or a stunning reversal by Putin), Russia will win conventionally in the short term. With that said, if the Ukrainian people's morale remains high and the entire country remains mobilized for an insurgency, then they will win they long run because Russia will not be able to afford hold the entire country.

[AndyHogan14]

This would be totally unexpected (so I'm taking this with a Javelin tube full of salt). But, if the DPR is losing cities of 240,000 residents, oof:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498842138389397509?s=20&t=EIHjPSKvX...

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498843379114942472?s=20&t=EIHjPSKvX...

I almost wonder if the people living in the DPR/LPR might **actually** greet the Ukrainian armed forces as liberators if they able to advance into separatist controlled territory. I cannot imagine it has been all sunshine and roses living in those areas. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that they will be able to move far into the separatist areas though (if this is true) considering the situation in the south.

[AndyHogan14]

Russia will win the conventional phase in a month or two. But the struggle for Ukrainian independence will be generational. Yet to be seen if Russia can build an effective and legitimate occupation government.

That will never be possible. Effective perhaps, but their puppet regime will never be legitimate in the eyes of the Ukrainian people or the west for that matter.

[AndyHogan14]

The separatists are incompetent losers who had to be saved from total defeat by regular Russian army intervention multiple times. They're currently acting as a pinning force in Donbas to fix Ukrainian forces in place to be hit on the flanks by the Russian thrust from the south and northeast.

Which means advances against them might feel good but are actually strategic mistakes; better to hold what you have.

I don't know. I am no military strategist, but if the Russians have to come in and prop up the DPR (not unlike how Austria had to be propped up by Germany in WWI), then that takes focus away from other parts of the invasion.

[AndyHogan14]

Kherson has fallen

Kherson after heavy shelling
From CNN's Paul P. Murphy and Jake Tapper
(From Telegram)
(From Telegram)
The Russian military appears to have taken central Kherson, screenshots posted to social media and a video obtained by CNN show.

The screenshots from a webcam and the video have been geolocated, and their authenticity verified by CNN.

The video shows Russian military vehicles at a roundabout in northern Kherson on Tuesday. The screenshots from the webcam show Russian military vehicles parked on Svobody Square in central Kherson.

The Kherson Regional Administration building sits on Svobody Square.

Entering the city: On Tuesday, CNN reported that Russian military vehicles had been seen on the eastern side of the city after days of shelling and intense fighting.

The videos provide new evidence that the Russians are moving throughout Kherson, apparently unimpeded. It also shows that the Russian forces from Crimea have advanced and established a crossing across the Dnieper River.

Mayor's desperate plea: On Tuesday afternoon, Kherson Mayor Igor Kolykhaiev posted a stark message on Facebook, warning the city was under attack. "Residential buildings and urban facilities are burning," he wrote.

"We are NOT military! But I will hold the city and its functioning as long as I can," he wrote. “If the Russian soldiers and their leadership hear me. I ask: leave our city, stop shelling the civilians. You have already taken everything you wanted. Including human lives.”

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-01-22/index.html

The fact it took the Russians this long to capture a major city is a win for the Ukrainians. The Russians were relying on finishing the war quickly, and that was denied to them.

Also, they **still** haven't taken Kharkiv, Sumy, or Mariupol. Quite frankly, I would have figured all of those cities would have fallen within the first 48 hours. Now, all of those cities are on the brink, but still, it just goes to show how this is not going—at all—how Russia wanted it to go.

[AndyHogan14]

.....they **still** haven't taken Kharkiv, Sumy, or Mariupol.

It's a very big country.

It might not be fast enough for Tik Tok or Twitter enthusiasts who are spinning around in circles.

It's best with these situations to realise the first casualty of war is the truth.

Take the Sarajevo market bombing in the Bosnian War. Serbian artillery commanders used a live feed from CNN to target the Muslim markets in the centre of town.

And how many Vietnam War media reports were total garbage?

Just not getting any good visibility of the facts yet.

It is indeed a big country, but none of those cities are particularly far away from Russia. Someone earlier compared the Russians' inability to take any of those cities to a theoretical American inability to take Tijuana, which makes some sense.