Israel general discussion

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So what is the Israeli right's plan - if they do end up annexing the West Bank - about the many Arab residents? Give them full citizenship and risk a plurality (majority?) Arab electorate?

Likud don't have a clear plan (except that keeping the status-quo in place is also a choice, though not an explicit one...) and are very much divided. Ideology doesn't matter too much anymore in the Bibi machine: think Forza Italia. BY want Bennett's plan. All parties and individuals to the right of BY don't seem to think too much about this issue ("G-d will make sure everything will be alright"), and many of them probably want to expel the Palestinians, which, needless to say, is not realistic either. Nobody on the right, except for some idealists like Rivlin perhaps, wants to grant Palestinians full citizenship, and yet this is of course the most likely scenario in the event that a 1SS happens.

Do any leftists support a one-state plan along Rivlin's ideals?

[DavidB.]

Do any leftists support a one-state plan along Rivlin's ideals?

As the 2SS seems less and less realistic, an increasing number of left-wingers, mostly post/anti-Zionists in the first place, start looking at alternatives like a 1SS; more on the fringe (like the 972mag crowd and, I guess, people like hnv1, though I might be wrong in his case) than on the center-left. Still a very small crowd, but it seems to be growing. Rivlin would still view the details of his 1SS very differently than these people, though.

That sounds sensible on paper, but it simply doesn't seem to work. I mean, Gabbay is trying exactly that, and the polls are making it clear that it's having a negative effect (though, admittedly, his gaffes about religion probably contributed to that). Netanyahu has, for years, effectively branded the left as illegitimate traitors who must be purged. He's a vicious politician, ready to trample over everyone and everything to keep his power, and so far it worked for him, at least politically if not personally. That's why he needs to go- a corrupt despot is definitely not what Israel needs. Without him, I agree that the Israeli population won't suddenly turn left, but who knows what'll happen? A new leader for Likud might not be able to keep the magic going. In my view, Bibi desperately needs to go, even if just to clean up and make our political system healthy again.

I don't think Gabbay's story on the economy is as convincing as it could (and should) be; isn't he more of a Third Wayist?

Other than that, I personally like him, but he just does not seem to be the ideal leader and Labour are so divided that any leader would have a difficult time internally in the first place, which is not good for one's popularity in general: it makes any leader look weak. I just don't see how Gabbay is meaningfully different from Lapid. And Labour carry a lot of negative baggage that Yesh Atid don't. I wonder if there would be any leader (some army guy?) who could at least unite the center-left.

I'd still say the main obstacle to a left-wing victory is the left's lack of a clear security agenda in combination with a lack of "patriotic credibility". But it has to go hand in hand with an economic alternative and with pointing out the injustices of Bibi's economic policy: if it becomes a patriotism contest, the side with "issue ownership" (i.e. the right) will win.

[Kingpoleon]

Pretty sure Edelstein and Benny Begin want a “Confederation” that separates Jews and Arabs/Palestinians.

[Hnv1]

Pretty sure Edelstein and Benny Begin want a “Confederation” that separates Jews and Arabs/Palestinians.

a confederation that seperates, that's almost an oxymoron.

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Well basically I'm a pragmatist, I don't like nation states but if they were to produce the lowest amount of bloodshed and provide the easiest solution I would be for a 2SS.

Some part of me still supports it only because I know that any process leading to a one-state will be burdened with blood. But I also saw almost any possible 2S framework out there, and the only one reasonable enough to be agreed by both sides (Geneva initiative) is untenable in the long run due to two crucial factors: national aspirations of Palestinians living within Israel proper; the fact that Palestinian economy will be in a terrible shape and will be completely reliant (monetary and such) on the Israeli one.

In my Ideal world I would prefer a confederacy, but in reality I am really just worried as I don't see any path for peace now. Best thing possible now is unilateral withdrawal to something along the 67 borders with the large settlements to stop the escalating situation on the ground.

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The main problem is that the bloc to the left of Likud (YA and Labour) has around 35 seats strength but its components are far less cohesive than Likud's one. the only connection is the disliking of the Likud but part for that we're talking about a very fragmented bloc of views and people.

I of course do not share your analysis of inner Jewish society social conditions (and I think Likud voters know the truth that their economic standings are not that bad so they don't believe in the Sephardi discrimination narrative). I think the old left (Labour for that matter, as Meretz can always take radical and younger form) is just dying as most centre-left parties in the west do. Socialism is impossible, and social issues of the global age are placing bigger problems for its semi-progressive positions than it does to conservative movements.

[Kingpoleon]

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Yeah, but it’s not the stupidest idea for Israel and Palestine.

[Famous Mortimer]

Netanyahu getting indicted will in no way cause middle Israel to suddenly turn to the left. The left can't "win"/form a government as long as they don't have a credible argument regarding the peace process and the security situation, with which they can win over middle Israel. Most people want a 2SS (the "Lieberman plan" with landswaps is probably the best and most popular one) but don't trust the Palestinian Authority not to turn the West Bank into a second Gaza and therefore prefer the status-quo, which Likud offers, over (perceived) uncertainty. Just like left-wingers are the best ones to implement budget cuts, right-wingers are the best ones to broker a peace deal. But as one-staters become more dominant on the right, it is doubtful whether a 2SS will ever happen. Only a dramatic change in the status-quo can alter the current trajectory.

What Labour needs to do is to show middle Israel that they are committed to Zionism, which means purging "post-Zionist" (BtS, Peace Now, the whole NGO world) elements from Labour. Let them go to Meretz. Make sure the "on whose side are you?" question is not on people's minds anymore. Meanwhile, credibly advocate for lasting peace and security in a 2SS from a Zionist perspective, provide an unashamedly Social Democratic alternative to Likud's agenda of economic inequality and oligarchy, and be committed to upholding freedom of and from religion. Become a party that credibly aims to unite Jewish Israelis from different backgrounds instead of ignoring all Jews outside the Tel Aviv metro.

That sounds sensible on paper, but it simply doesn't seem to work. I mean, Gabbay is trying exactly that, and the polls are making it clear that it's having a negative effect (though, admittedly, his gaffes about religion probably contributed to that). Netanyahu has, for years, effectively branded the left as illegitimate traitors who must be purged. He's a vicious politician, ready to trample over everyone and everything to keep his power, and so far it worked for him, at least politically if not personally. That's why he needs to go- a corrupt despot is definitely not what Israel needs. Without him, I agree that the Israeli population won't suddenly turn left, but who knows what'll happen? A new leader for Likud might not be able to keep the magic going. In my view, Bibi desperately needs to go, even if just to clean up and make our political system healthy again.

As much as I hate to admit it, I don't think moving to the left or right on economics will make much of a difference for Labor. As much as things like the housing crisis may effect left-wing voters, it's clear that their main motivation for voting left is cultural. Economic populism may benefit blue collar people in Israel but those voters are already firmed committed to the right. Very similar to the situation in the United States.

[Hnv1]

1. Stay tuned, we might be going to a GE tonight

2. Meretz primaries: Avi Dabush withdrew as well which leaves Zandberg (who he endorsed) facing Buskila and some nobodies. Tammy will probably win by at least 70% now. Gilon endorsed her this morning which means that part for Galon all the MKs of the past 5 years endorsed her.

[sverkol]

I think that the majority of their supporters will vote for Buskila despite their endorsement.

[DavidB.]

So what's the draft law compromise exactly? I haven't followed this (paying almost no attention to IL politics anymore because it's just too depressing), but this is the issue that might make the government collapse, right? Which positions do the parties take here?

[Hnv1]

I think that the majority of their supporters will vote for Buskila despite their endorsement.

With Gilon definitely not and his supporters will mainly flock to Zandberg (they pushed for the endorsement). With Dabush, there weren’t all that many, some will move to Buskila but the majority will just stay home. Buskila hardly ran an inspiring campaign and instead of using it as a platform for the list primaries he managed to anger quite a lot of people. Can’t see anything but a landslide here

[Hnv1]

So what's the draft law compromise exactly? I haven't followed this (paying almost no attention to IL politics anymore because it's just too depressing), but this is the issue that might make the government collapse, right? Which positions do the parties take here?

The compromise is a tangled affair:
The draft bill will be presented as private legislation so YB could vote against without having their ministers fired. It will pass only at a preliminary hearing and they’ll be working on accepted form in the future. The budget will go through as planned as 2-year budget.

The parties don’t really have positions on it as no one thinks this will be the bill passed at the end. But most coalition parties just agree that it’s a nonissue to go to a GE for

[sverkol]

I think that the majority of their supporters will vote for Buskila despite their endorsement.

With Gilon definitely not and his supporters will mainly flock to Zandberg (they pushed for the endorsement). With Dabush, there weren’t all that many, some will move to Buskila but the majority will just stay home. Buskila hardly ran an inspiring campaign and instead of using it as a platform for the list primaries he managed to anger quite a lot of people. Can’t see anything but a landslide here

Many of the Gilon supporters feeling that Meretz not connecting with the public in the periphery,Buskila is much better option for them than Tamar(wich i like but she can't bring more votes to Mererz).
Endorsment is such overrated thing,i remind you that in the last Labour primary in the first round Peretz got 32% Margalit and Herzog got both also 32% together ,thay both endorsed Peretz and Gabbay still won.

[Hnv1]

I think that the majority of their supporters will vote for Buskila despite their endorsement.

With Gilon definitely not and his supporters will mainly flock to Zandberg (they pushed for the endorsement). With Dabush, there weren’t all that many, some will move to Buskila but the majority will just stay home. Buskila hardly ran an inspiring campaign and instead of using it as a platform for the list primaries he managed to anger quite a lot of people. Can’t see anything but a landslide here

Many of the Gilon supporters feeling that Meretz not connecting with the public in the periphery,Buskila is much better option for them than Tamar(wich i like but she can't bring more votes to Mererz).
Endorsment is such overrated thing,i remind you that in the last Labour primary in the first round Peretz got 32% Margalit and Herzog got both also 32% together ,thay both endorsed Peretz and Gabbay still won.

I suspect you don't know how the reds (as they call themselves) work. They decided on that bottom to top, meaning they had 2 meetings with 500 supporters to decide who they will turn to. Gilon's group is very cohesive and it's not like he dictates the play there (prof. Gutwein does).

As to Buskila he might have been alternative, but he's clueless on economics and wouldn't give them the concessions they wanted (Tammy pretty much outsourced the economic part of the platform to them).

Bar for Peretz no one in Labour had any effective control on his voters so the analogy is unfit.

And as I said Buskila hardly ran an impressive campaign and Meretz members appreciate political experience and commitment more than to accept an absolute no one who came from no where with no clear positions.

[sverkol]

I think that the majority of their supporters will vote for Buskila despite their endorsement.

With Gilon definitely not and his supporters will mainly flock to Zandberg (they pushed for the endorsement). With Dabush, there weren’t all that many, some will move to Buskila but the majority will just stay home. Buskila hardly ran an inspiring campaign and instead of using it as a platform for the list primaries he managed to anger quite a lot of people. Can’t see anything but a landslide here

Many of the Gilon supporters feeling that Meretz not connecting with the public in the periphery,Buskila is much better option for them than Tamar(wich i like but she can't bring more votes to Mererz).
Endorsment is such overrated thing,i remind you that in the last Labour primary in the first round Peretz got 32% Margalit and Herzog got both also 32% together ,thay both endorsed Peretz and Gabbay still won.

I suspect you don't know how the reds (as they call themselves) work. They decided on that bottom to top, meaning they had 2 meetings with 500 supporters to decide who they will turn to. Gilon's group is very cohesive and it's not like he dictates the play there (prof. Gutwein does).

As to Buskila he might have been alternative, but he's clueless on economics and wouldn't give them the concessions they wanted (Tammy pretty much outsourced the economic part of the platform to them).

Bar for Peretz no one in Labour had any effective control on his voters so the analogy is unfit.

And as I said Buskila hardly ran an impressive campaign and Meretz members appreciate political experience and commitment more than to accept an absolute no one who came from no where with no clear positions.

Your distate from every sephard candidate is racist.

[DavidB.]

Your distate from every sephard candidate is racist.

LOL

Some part of me still supports it only because I know that any process leading to a one-state will be burdened with blood. But I also saw almost any possible 2S framework out there, and the only one reasonable enough to be agreed by both sides (Geneva initiative) is untenable in the long run due to two crucial factors: national aspirations of Palestinians living within Israel proper; the fact that Palestinian economy will be in a terrible shape and will be completely reliant (monetary and such) on the Israeli one.

In my Ideal world I would prefer a confederacy, but in reality I am really just worried as I don't see any path for peace now.

I basically agree with this. I have softened on the 2SS recently because while the best-case 1SS scenario is better than any 2SS scenario, most 1SS scenarios are far more disastrous than most 2SS scenarios.

The main problem is that the bloc to the left of Likud (YA and Labour) has around 35 seats strength but its components are far less cohesive than Likud's one. the only connection is the disliking of the Likud but part for that we're talking about a very fragmented bloc of views and people.

I would say that the main problem for the center-left is that they have such a small number of seats in the first place. If you want to form a government without the right, you have to win back voters that vote for these parties now. Kulanu is an obvious one, but you're going to have to win over  Likud/YB voters as well.

I of course do not share your analysis of inner Jewish society social conditions (and I think Likud voters know the truth that their economic standings are not that bad so they don't believe in the Sephardi discrimination narrative). I think the old left (Labour for that matter, as Meretz can always take radical and younger form) is just dying as most centre-left parties in the west do. Socialism is impossible, and social issues of the global age are placing bigger problems for its semi-progressive positions than it does to conservative movements.

My analysis on the discrimination of Mizrahim and their economic position has changed quite a bit over time, and I agree my previous comments on it were at least exaggerated. I personally do not agree with the idea that the increasing salience of the globalization vs. nationalism divide means that the traditional left-right divide has become outdated. I do not believe in socialism, but social democracy is both possible and needed, just not in the same, dogmatic way as in the days of yore. There needs to be a credible, economically left-wing alternative to Likud's policy of oligarchy and inequality. I am not saying most people have it bad, but too many people are struggling too much, more than necessary in a country that is as wealthy as Israel is.

[danny]

I think that the majority of their supporters will vote for Buskila despite their endorsement.

With Gilon definitely not and his supporters will mainly flock to Zandberg (they pushed for the endorsement). With Dabush, there weren’t all that many, some will move to Buskila but the majority will just stay home. Buskila hardly ran an inspiring campaign and instead of using it as a platform for the list primaries he managed to anger quite a lot of people. Can’t see anything but a landslide here

Many of the Gilon supporters feeling that Meretz not connecting with the public in the periphery,Buskila is much better option for them than Tamar(wich i like but she can't bring more votes to Mererz).
Endorsment is such overrated thing,i remind you that in the last Labour primary in the first round Peretz got 32% Margalit and Herzog got both also 32% together ,thay both endorsed Peretz and Gabbay still won.

I suspect you don't know how the reds (as they call themselves) work. They decided on that bottom to top, meaning they had 2 meetings with 500 supporters to decide who they will turn to. Gilon's group is very cohesive and it's not like he dictates the play there (prof. Gutwein does).

As to Buskila he might have been alternative, but he's clueless on economics and wouldn't give them the concessions they wanted (Tammy pretty much outsourced the economic part of the platform to them).

Bar for Peretz no one in Labour had any effective control on his voters so the analogy is unfit.

And as I said Buskila hardly ran an impressive campaign and Meretz members appreciate political experience and commitment more than to accept an absolute no one who came from no where with no clear positions.

Your distate from every sephard candidate is racist.

Your'e quick to blame people of racism, especially when his post criticised not just Buskila but Gilon and Zandberg too.

[Hnv1]

I think that the majority of their supporters will vote for Buskila despite their endorsement.

With Gilon definitely not and his supporters will mainly flock to Zandberg (they pushed for the endorsement). With Dabush, there weren’t all that many, some will move to Buskila but the majority will just stay home. Buskila hardly ran an inspiring campaign and instead of using it as a platform for the list primaries he managed to anger quite a lot of people. Can’t see anything but a landslide here

Many of the Gilon supporters feeling that Meretz not connecting with the public in the periphery,Buskila is much better option for them than Tamar(wich i like but she can't bring more votes to Mererz).
Endorsment is such overrated thing,i remind you that in the last Labour primary in the first round Peretz got 32% Margalit and Herzog got both also 32% together ,thay both endorsed Peretz and Gabbay still won.

I suspect you don't know how the reds (as they call themselves) work. They decided on that bottom to top, meaning they had 2 meetings with 500 supporters to decide who they will turn to. Gilon's group is very cohesive and it's not like he dictates the play there (prof. Gutwein does).

As to Buskila he might have been alternative, but he's clueless on economics and wouldn't give them the concessions they wanted (Tammy pretty much outsourced the economic part of the platform to them).

Bar for Peretz no one in Labour had any effective control on his voters so the analogy is unfit.

And as I said Buskila hardly ran an impressive campaign and Meretz members appreciate political experience and commitment more than to accept an absolute no one who came from no where with no clear positions.

Your distate from every sephard candidate is racist.

You do know that I’m Sephardic (half)? And a big supporter of Raz who is Sephardic. I just don’t like identity politics and instant politician. This is not a publicity contest, I want more competent politicians and Buskila fails to meet that standard (Peretz whom I don’t like is a very competent politician)

[DC Al Fine]

Dumb question: how hard is it to tell Ashkenazi and Sephardic people apart? Is it really obvious to the eye, or would you need to listen to their accent or ask them directly to know?

[sverkol]

Dumb question: how hard is it to tell Ashkenazi and Sephardic people apart? Is it really obvious to the eye, or would you need to listen to their accent or ask them directly to know?

Never tohougt about it,usually The ashkenazi looking more European while Sephardic looking more Middle Eastern.
Sometimes Sephardic has darker skin but not always,i am a Sephardic with really white skin.
Sephardic women

Ashkenazi women

[sverkol]

I think that the majority of their supporters will vote for Buskila despite their endorsement.

With Gilon definitely not and his supporters will mainly flock to Zandberg (they pushed for the endorsement). With Dabush, there weren’t all that many, some will move to Buskila but the majority will just stay home. Buskila hardly ran an inspiring campaign and instead of using it as a platform for the list primaries he managed to anger quite a lot of people. Can’t see anything but a landslide here

Many of the Gilon supporters feeling that Meretz not connecting with the public in the periphery,Buskila is much better option for them than Tamar(wich i like but she can't bring more votes to Mererz).
Endorsment is such overrated thing,i remind you that in the last Labour primary in the first round Peretz got 32% Margalit and Herzog got both also 32% together ,thay both endorsed Peretz and Gabbay still won.

I suspect you don't know how the reds (as they call themselves) work. They decided on that bottom to top, meaning they had 2 meetings with 500 supporters to decide who they will turn to. Gilon's group is very cohesive and it's not like he dictates the play there (prof. Gutwein does).

As to Buskila he might have been alternative, but he's clueless on economics and wouldn't give them the concessions they wanted (Tammy pretty much outsourced the economic part of the platform to them).

Bar for Peretz no one in Labour had any effective control on his voters so the analogy is unfit.

And as I said Buskila hardly ran an impressive campaign and Meretz members appreciate political experience and commitment more than to accept an absolute no one who came from no where with no clear positions.

Your distate from every sephard candidate is racist.

You do know that I’m Sephardic (half)? And a big supporter of Raz who is Sephardic. I just don’t like identity politics and instant politician. This is not a publicity contest, I want more competent politicians and Buskila fails to meet that standard (Peretz whom I don’t like is a very competent politician)

I never supported identity politics and Peretz never used identity politics,Gabbay actually tried to use idenity politics.
Gabbay is a total failure.

[DavidB.]

Dumb question: how hard is it to tell Ashkenazi and Sephardic people apart? Is it really obvious to the eye, or would you need to listen to their accent or ask them directly to know?

In some cases it's clear, in many (and increasingly many, as intermarriage has become common) it isn't. You can sometimes tell from people's surnames, but even then these people might be mixed nowadays.

From the picture on the right it would be difficult for me to see whether she is Ashkenazi or Mizrahi. On the picture on the left it is clearer.

Most Ashkenazim of course do not look like the blonde model at all.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Dumb question: how hard is it to tell Ashkenazi and Sephardic people apart? Is it really obvious to the eye, or would you need to listen to their accent or ask them directly to know?

In some cases it's clear, in many (and increasingly many, as intermarriage has become common) it isn't. You can sometimes tell from people's surnames, but even then these people might be mixed nowadays.

From the picture on the right it would be difficult for me to see whether she is Ashkenazi or Mizrahi. On the picture on the left it is clearer.

Most Ashkenazim of course do not look like the blonde model at all.

Most people generally don't look like models But yeah, many Israelis today are mixed anyway, which I think created the distinct "Israeli look" rather than just "European look" or "Arabic look".

[sverkol]

Knesset channel reported that Kachlon going to return to the Likud.

[DavidB.]

Knesset channel reported that Kachlon going to return to the Likud.

Lmao. His whole party, then, I assume?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Knesset channel reported that Kachlon going to return to the Likud.

What? This is extremely bizarre right now. Would make sense after Bibi is indicted with the intention of running for leadership but this?