How many CDs has Biden won?

[Tekken_Guy]

so has the R advantage in the house finally dissipated a little bit? Remember that Romney won 230 districts while losing PV by four. The problem is that as soon as the house problem lessened in its severity - the senate problem flared up. Hopefully it works itself out at some point.

Several states got new districts.  Republicans might have just won the House with the 2013 districts.

Yeah, we almost certainly would have won the House this year if PA/NC/FL/VA hadn't redistricted mid-decade.  But, the other factor is that gerrymanders are much more effective early in a decade than they are late in a decade.  For instance, Republicans in Georgia in 2011 were not concerned in the slightest about GA-6 or GA-7 going Democrat.

Also, even though Republicans may come as close as 4 seats from a House majority, there would have needed to be a more than 2 point national swing to bring those last 4 seats home.

215. IL-14 (Underwood +1)
216. IA-3 (Axne +1.4)
217. VA-7 (Spanberger +1.
218. MN-2 (Craig +2.2)

Now, there are a ton of districts that Democrats won by 3-4 (probably right about where the House NPV winds up), but the House map wasn't nearly as effective for Republicans as it usually is.

That doesn’t seem too much. Even a slight alteration of the timeline would get Trump re-elected, win back the house, and defeat Gary Peters.

[Tekken_Guy]

Right now, between confirmed flips and eyeballing results, I have the following districts as Trump-Biden:
AZ-01
GA-06
GA-07
IL-14
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NV-03
NH-01
NJ-05
NJ-11
NY-18
PA-17
TX-24
VA-02
VA-07

The only Clinton-Trump district I for sure know of is FL-26. What other districts flipped in both directions?

Some potential flips:

Clinton - Trump:
TX-23

Trump - Biden:
IA-1
NJ-3
TX-3

Re-elected Abby Finkenauer agrees.

[Tekken_Guy]

Right now, between confirmed flips and eyeballing results, I have the following districts as Trump-Biden:
AZ-01
GA-06
GA-07
IL-14
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NV-03
NH-01
NJ-05
NJ-11
NY-18
PA-17
TX-24
VA-02
VA-07

The only Clinton-Trump district I for sure know of is FL-26. What other districts flipped in both directions?

Some potential flips:

Clinton - Trump:
TX-23

Trump - Biden:
IA-1
NJ-3
TX-3

Re-elected Abby Finkenauer agrees.

I think I saw that all Iowa districts voted for Trump (IA-3 was actually the closest and was decided by 0.1%) and that TX-3 did as well.

Yeah, Trump won all four districts in Iowa again. TX-24 was the only Trump-Biden district in Texas, as Biden lost TX-02, TX-03, TX-10, TX-21 and TX-22 by around 1-2 points each. Not sure about the margins in TX-06, TX-25 and TX-31.

NJ-03 is possible, since Burlington and Ocean both swung about 5 points left. Though I think Trump probably won NJ-02.

How about Ohio? Did Biden flip any districts or did he only win the usual four?

[Tekken_Guy]

Has anyone figured out which districts had the biggest swings to Biden and Trump respectively?

TX is going to be interesting in redistricting because there are so many GOPers to protect, new seats to add. They may have honestly been better off had they lost a couple this year, they can pack Austin but its really hard to see them keeping the whole delegation, adding 2 of the new 3 seats and not losing 5-7 seats if there is a Dem wave in 2026 etc.

In addition they have to decide if TX-15, 28, 34 are worth going for. All 3 are meant as D vote sinks but hard to pack them even more. If they try to make them more R, then that is fewer voters to shore up 10, 21, 25, 31. It's one of the tougher gerrymander calls out there.

Problem for them is the State House was just as vulnerable as their House seats, I did a uniform swing and Dems could win the state House while only gaining the 23rd and the 24th (though McCaul and Roy have very tight races).

For Trump, it's definitely the Cuban and RGV districts. Biden I assume is somewhere in Atlanta or the major TX metros.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yep...
Tax lien Cox
Lotto winner Cisneros

TJ Cox had ethics issues
Gil Cisneros was accused of sexual harassment.
Harley Rouda had a shady business record.

[Tekken_Guy]

NJ-07: Biden +9-10

Ancestral Republican places like here, OC still have downballot life for the GOP.

Fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=5n2f

Here's a map with district flips. Biden won 17 districts Trump carried in 2016, while Trump picked up 2 from Biden.