AZ GOV Trafalgar Lake +3

[Sir Mohamed]

I've seen enough, moving this from Tossup to Lean R.

Seems like there's been a swing towards Lake lately, which is kind of depressing. I don't think the race will be decided by a huge margin, but Lake is for sure favored.

[Sir Mohamed]

I've seen enough, moving this from Tossup to Lean R.

Seems like there's been a swing towards Lake lately, which is kind of depressing. I don't think the race will be decided by a huge margin, but Lake is for sure favored.

This is a swing towards Hobbs since their last poll lol

Lake has been leading all recent polls though. I think she's more likely to win at this point; Hobbs also seems to run an underwhelming campaign. Just hope it won't sink Kelly as well.

[Sir Mohamed]

Marc Victor's voters are obviously supporting Lake in the gubernatorial race. Lake is at 49% in this poll, while Masters is at 46% and Victor is garnering 3%. Hobbs is also at 46%, 1 point behind Kelly, who is at 47%. This seems to be an indicator that not much ticket-splitting is occurring in Arizona between Kelly and Lake, certainly not as much as it seemed at first. The third-party vote is making the difference between the two races. Kelly may have Victor to thank in helping him win reelection.

Polls tend to overestimate 3rd party support though. I'd be surprised if Victor gets more than 2% of the vote.

[Sir Mohamed]

Marc Victor's voters are obviously supporting Lake in the gubernatorial race. Lake is at 49% in this poll, while Masters is at 46% and Victor is garnering 3%. Hobbs is also at 46%, 1 point behind Kelly, who is at 47%. This seems to be an indicator that not much ticket-splitting is occurring in Arizona between Kelly and Lake, certainly not as much as it seemed at first. The third-party vote is making the difference between the two races. Kelly may have Victor to thank in helping him win reelection.

Polls tend to overestimate 3rd party support though. I'd be surprised if Victor gets more than 2% of the vote.

Are you saying then, that there is a substantial number of Lake-Kelly voters in Arizona? Or that Masters is closer to Lake than what recent polls have shown? In pretty much every recent poll I've seen, Hobbs and Kelly are garnering about the same level of support, in terms of percentage.

There seems to be an amount of Lake-Kelly voters. I don't really understand it, but it looks like that's the case.