The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[RogueBeaver]

Christie now refuses to say whether he supports amnesty, even though he's been quite vocally pro since becoming governor. I doubt this matters too much in the primary, given his much heavier baggage and the fact that there isn't a rival who strongly disagrees with him on it.

Cook's first Pub prediction is Paul v. Walker. I'd definitely agree, except Paul v. whichever Cheeseman runs.

[Bull Moose Base]

Warren isn't at all comparable to mayors Booker or Castro. Her resume would be similar to Obama's in 2008, as would grassroots enthusiasm for her. She's very doubtful to run if Clinton runs, the most likely nominee if Clinton does not.

Santorum and Paul remain the only Republicans better than 50/50 to run. Cruz seems close to 50/50.

I'm not one to miss an opportunity to pat myself on the back for a good prediction. There's no definitive proof I was right, and I'm guessing we'll never even find out, but I think it's pretty obvious Warren is the most likely nominee if Clinton passes.

[Miles]

Paul will be speaking at the Citadel today and will not be endorsing in Graham's race.

[Badger]

Christie now refuses to say whether he supports amnesty, even though he's been quite vocally pro since becoming governor. I doubt this matters too much in the primary, given his much heavier baggage and the fact that there isn't a rival who strongly disagrees with him on it.

And so the slow slog to the right begins already for Christie. I really didn't think he'd start so publicly less than a week after his re-election.

[Badger]

Cillizza's ranking: Christie, Rand, Cruz, Walker. Says that he's hearing conflicting things about Ryan, who's apparently considerably dialed back his interest from September, so is now ranked at #9.

The most telling thing about this list? Who there other than Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan--neither of whom I suspect will run, and in Ryan's case it probably wouldn't make much difference anyway--has much chance to syphon support from Christie as opposed to Cruz or Paul? Maybe Walker, though I suspect his confrontational take no prisoners style will appeal to the stauch conservatives than Christie. Ergo it seems more likely the right will again have the difficult task of not splitting itself so much it can't stop the Eastern Establishment guy with money from winning.

Also, Christie has been more consistantly conservative on social issues and has far less a liberal governing history than Romney ever did, but Mitt still wound up the nominee. He's about one Obama hug during Sandy away from having more right wing cred than Romney ever did.

[RogueBeaver]

They could take significant chunk of Christie's establishment support outside the Northeast. In Jeb's case, perhaps the Northeast too. Ryan could take a big chunk of the non-Northern establishment.

Speaking of Ryan, he's leaving the door wide open in a DMR interview. Says he'll take a hard look at it in the next Congress.

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz will speak to South Carolina college Republicans during a conference call next week:

http://therun2016.com/cruz-address-south-carolina-college-republicans/

[Miles]

Paul will be speaking at the Citadel today and will not be endorsing in Graham's race.

Video of Paul's speech.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/jeb-bush-2016-election-99798.html

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[Badger]

H

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/jeb-bush-2016-election-99798.html

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Sounds like some folks are working hard beind the scenes to keep Christie from becoming the de facto establishment choice early on.

Still doubt Jeb runs, but it's got to weigh on his ming that 2016 is surely his last chance to run (unless he gets tapped for Veep).

[HagridOfTheDeep]

If both Jeb and Christie run, we could very well get a Cruz type as the nominee. I am not impressed.

Either way, I think the rift in the party is big enough that the Republican ticket will end up featuring two people who are quite similar. Each side, moderate and crazy, things the other is killing the party.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I just saw a link from Tea Party Express on Facebook (so I hope it is just their usual BS) that John McCain is flirting with a 2016 run.

[Brewer]

I just saw a link from Tea Party Express on Facebook (so I hope it is just their usual BS) that John McCain is flirting with a 2016 run.

Apparently some constituents were telling him to run again...dear god...

[RogueBeaver]

Pence said today he's running for reelection in 2016.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the thing on McCain:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/363630/mccain-2016-robert-costa

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Pence said today he's running for reelection in 2016.

Link?

[Mr. Morden]

Bernie Sanders is touring the South this week, and says that he's "willing to consider making a run if no one else with progressive views similar to his ends up taking the plunge":

http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/20131115/NEWS03/311150043/Sanders-wants-progressive-presence-in-2016-president-race

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In other news, unsurprising news that Biden would likely opt out of the race if Clinton runs:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-lay-groundwork-for-clinton-2016/2013/11/16/8b919fa6-4ed2-11e3-be6b-d3d28122e6d4_story.html

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[tmthforu94]

Bernie Sanders would make an excellent third-party candidate in 2016!

[RogueBeaver]

Write-up of Ryan's Branstad keynote. He said Iowans should be more skeptical of big government promises. Also said that part of his problem last year was arguing against theory rather than practice, which is hardly unique to him among Pubs. So he's learned that particular lesson: less abstract, more pain-feeling. Other Pubs should take that advice.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Bernie Sanders would make an excellent third-party candidate in 2016!

Indeed, he should go for it!

Actually, I could vote for him in protest if we nominated somebody I despise (which really only means Santorum and Cruz on his worst day).

[Brewer]

Bernie Sanders would make an excellent third-party candidate in 2016!

Except he looks about as presidential as Ron Paul or Dennis Kucinich.

[RogueBeaver]

More on Ryan in Iowa: said Pubs should be the proposition, not opposition party. Branstad had a lot of nice things to say about him but also said that the 2016 nominee should be a governor and that Ryan should focus on his leadership role in Congress. Before anyone reads too much about Branstad's governor comment on Ryan, he also preferred a governor in 2011.

[Mr. Morden]

More on Sanders:

Dean says he is still supporting Hillary Clinton for now, but doesn't seem to completely rule out a run himself ("he doesn't think he will run again").  However, he says that if Sanders were to run, he'd think about supporting him:

http://www.wcax.com/story/23946008/dean-may-throw-support-behind-sanders-presidential-run

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But that may be presuming that Sanders would run as a Democrat.  I doubt Dean would ultimately endorse a third party candidate.

[Brewer]

Obviously he could pull a Barack Obama and completely change his mind, but Dean did say a couple months ago on Crossfire that he would not be running in 2016.

[Mr. Morden]

Obviously he could pull a Barack Obama and completely change his mind, but Dean did say a couple months ago on Crossfire that he would not be running in 2016.

Ah, I had missed that.  Looks like that comes at about 23:25 in this video, where he says he won't run:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJeuraRDROk

Though that's a bit weird, since just ~1 week earlier, he was in New Hampshire, and said "never say never" about 2016.

[JRP1994]

I wonder... If Sanders was a 3rd party candidate, could he win Vermont?