2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Non Swing Voter]

1. Biden isn't unpopular.

2. There is evidence to suggest that off year electorates are more favorable to democrats (who are much more educated) nowadays.

3. GOP is still crazy.

4. There are more democrats than Republicans.

5. Gerrymandering favors the GOP but not as much as it did last time they drew the maps.

6. Population growth is highly concentrated in Democrats areas (even in red states) and therefore even if Republicans gerrymander, Democrats should see some benefit.

7. GOP won a lot of the low hanging fruit in 2020.  They have to defend a lot of close districts, a lot more than Democrats do. 

8. Historical norms don't always play out.  Like in GWB's first term.  Also, if historical norms played out then Biden wouldn't have won the White House while losing so many House seats. 

In short.  I've seen no good analysis here to demonstrate that the GOP is a lock for the House.  It's just some combination of "historical norms" and "gerrymandering."  Weak. 

[Non Swing Voter]

So like R+4? I guess 1/6 helped the Republicans; we're living in Weimar America.

Democrats need to do a better job of playing hardball.  They control congress.  They should use the committee to embarrass the GOP right before the next election when investigating this.  The GOP had no qualms about doing it regarding Benghazi, which was not an issue that deserved national attention like 1/6 does.

[Non Swing Voter]

"Forty-seven percent of registered voters prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress, while 46 percent want Republicans in charge. (That’s down from the Democrats’ 5-point advantage on this question in April.)"

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1277368?__twitter_impression=true

Well, democracy was fun while it lasted.

Democracy means your people can be voted out too.

His "people" don't try to steal elections and deter people from voting "green" avatar. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Interesting report about Afghanistan and the midterms I'd like to share here:

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1429591518017429505

Republican efforts to saddle the Democrats with fallout from the fall of Kabul won't necessarily fly with voters — or instill fears in midterm candidates.

Why it matters: Axios traveled to Virginia’s 7th District last week, where Rep. Abigail Spanberger is running for re-election in a bellwether district. She focused solely on selling President Biden’s stimulus package and the bipartisan infrastructure deal still working its way through Congress.

    In conversations the congresswoman had with her Richmond-area constituents, Afghanistan didn't come up.
    She drew greater reaction for her efforts to bring broadband to rural areas.
    “We might not have a Taliban, but with the Capitol insurrection and the partisanship, we don’t have a government that functions,” said Carena Ives, a 53-year-old restaurant owner. “We need to focus on home.”

What they're saying: It’s just one piece of evidence, albeit anecdotal, that Biden’s handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal may not be the political cudgel Republicans hope for the midterms.

    “I don’t blame Trump. I don’t blame Biden, because he continued the withdrawal. We can’t perfect the world,” said Annie Tobey, 61.
    Elyse Shoenig, 75, whose late husband was a Vietnam veteran, said when she saw the images from the fall of Kabul, she was immediately reminded of Saigon.
    Asked whether it will affect the way she votes, she replied, “Not yet. But I will need to see the situation play out.”

...

Yeah literally no-one is going to vote on this issue.  Very few people even in Northern Virginia are going to vote on this issue, despite Matty's hopes and dreams that it's on the top of everyone's minds and will propel Youngkin to victory.