🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Who would Russia prefer to see win the election between the CDU, the SPD and the Greens?

The Greens are the most hawkish on Russia, being strongly against Nord Stream 2 and for closer ties with the United States; while the CDU/CSU is the most dovish, supporting Merkel’s foreign policy of putting German commercial and economic interests above ideology. The SPD is somewhere in between.

What is really the difference between SPD and CDU on Russia in terms of actual policies, though? IMO, the difference is non-significant, if any. I wouldn't call it as "SPD is somewhere in between". And it wasn't only Schröder, Sigmar Gabriel is a kind of Russophile/Russlandversteher, too, isn't he?

Also, imo single out Schröder, but leaving out Merkal is kinda unfair. Her role in enabling NS2 (and partly NS1) is at least as big as Schröder's for NS1. Even at the very end after at she's stepped down (when she knew Greens are fairly likely to enter new government), she ensured NS2 completion (even though, it, perhaps, won't be allowed to use up to 100% of its capacity). Not only that, her decision to hurry up the closure of nuclear plants has all but ensured the flow of Russian gas to Germany in years to come.

Baerbock is probably out in the race for the chancellorship, but can be sure to end up as foreign minister and vice chancellor in any government with Green participation (minus vice chancellorship if they somehow end up behind the FDP).

How much say/independence will Baerbock as Foreign Minister have in foreign policies vs SPD/FDP? Really intriguing, given her for Germany relatively un-ortodox views.

[Astatine]

How libertarian is the FDP nowadays anyway? I would presume they moved a bit closer to the center considering all the traffic light talk?

Libertarianism isn't really anything but a niche ideology over here. The FDP is economically pro-business/free market (with some restrictions) and socially liberal, and hasn't really changed much over the last years platform-wise, although the social/civil liberal aspect gets more highlighted in campaigning and representation. During the years of the CDU-CSU-FDP coalition, they were largely perceived as solely economically liberal.
Within the youth organization, the Young Liberals, you might see some libertarians, but they're going essentially nowhere. "Real" libertarians are a rare species.

In 2013, there was an internet hype around a party that is closest to the libertarian ideology, the "Partei der Vernunft" (Party of Reason/PdV), which wanted a minimal state, massive tax cuts and repeal of many regulations, as well as leaving the Eurozone and turning the EU into a free trade area.
In spite of its "hype" and some local FDP officials joining the PdV, the party only got 0.1 % in the general elections and fizzled out eventually - In 2017 the PdV just received 500 something votes in the general elections. It still shows some activity (there was actually a party congress last weekend), but I doubt the party has much of a future.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Can we just dispel with the fiction that the FDP is on average "socially liberal"?

[DC Al Fine]

Any chance of an SDP-FDP-Linke coalition? That would be my preference

I am calling for a total and complete shutdown of Americans entering the international elections board until we can figure out what the hell is going on.

I second this. Mods please hurry, Canada's election is only five days away!

[mileslunn]

Any chance of a Red-Red-Green coalition?  Also if a Traffic light coalition is formed, what would it be like policy wise?  I am assuming that all other coalitions asides Red-Red-Green would be fairly centrist much like current government and some minor changes, but nothing too radical.  Perhaps maybe higher minimum wage and maybe longer period to balance budget.  I am guessing on taxes, they will be cut for middle and lower income, while stay the same for high income unless its a Red-Red-Green in which case they will go up and probably a wealth tax too. 

Is a minority also possible as while Germany has no history of them SPD and Greens could do it on an issue by issue where turn to Linke on areas they want to go left while CDU/CSU and FDP on areas they lean more towards centre or right?  Any chance of that or is German tradition a coalition always formed?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When British people first take an interest in German politics they tend to assume that the FDP are rather like the Liberal Democrats. When they learn a little more then tend to believe that this is nonsense, that they have little in common. When they actually understand things they know that their initial assumptions were surprisingly close to the mark.

[DL]

When British people first take an interest in German politics they tend to assume that the FDP are rather like the Liberal Democrats. When they learn a little more then tend to believe that this is nonsense, that they have little in common. When they actually understand things they know that their initial assumptions were surprisingly close to the mark.

Maybe I am giving away my age here but I had a vague impression that the FDP are social liberals because I still remember the SPD-FDP coalition government of the 70s and early 80s under Willy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt and how at the time and the FDP were depicted as socially liberal, civil libertarians who supported a softer line against the Soviets and the DDR

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

When British people first take an interest in German politics they tend to assume that the FDP are rather like the Liberal Democrats. When they learn a little more then tend to believe that this is nonsense, that they have little in common. When they actually understand things they know that their initial assumptions were surprisingly close to the mark.

Maybe I am giving away my age here but I had a vague impression that the FDP are social liberals because I still remember the SPD-FDP coalition government of the 70s and early 80s under Willy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt and how at the time and the FDP were depicted as socially liberal, civil libertarians who supported a softer line against the Soviets and the DDR

All the social liberals left the party and went to the SPD and then the Greens. They very much a right-liberal party whose main points have been shredding the welfare state and delivering tax cuts to higher earners, but they sell themselves differently during campaign season and they try very hard to appear non-threatening and normal. There may indeed be some more social liberal individuals in the party, but make no mistake, they are primarily the party of the economic elites.

[DL]

Isn't it true that the nickname for the FDP in Germany is "the party of doctors and dentists"?

[njwes]

But are the FDP actually socially "conservative" in any way though? I kind of assumed (as an ignorant American observer obvi) that they were sort of ~centrist~, just vaguely staking their social policy more or less on the fluctuating views of the median German voter.

[buritobr]

The most recent Forsa poll had data collected between September 7th and 13th. SPD has 25%.
The most recent GMS poll had data collected between September 8th and 13th. SPD has 25%.
The most recent INSA poll had data collected between September 10th and 13th. SPD has 26%.

The news concerning the money laundry became public on September 10th. So, some data were collected after the news. The SPD is still stable at 25%. Until now, there was no impact.

[njwes]

Хahar, palandio, and Astatine: thanks for the answers on the SSW/minority parties!

[H. Ross Peron]

FDP seems to have undergone a remarkable number of transformations since 1949, more so than any of the big German parties.

[parochial boy]

Reading through this thread, I think people might be confusing "social liberal" as it is understood in the typical European political spectrum, and "socially liberal" as the term is typically used on here*. The FDP are not a social liberal party, at all, in so far as that tends to mean parties with a wet, economically centrist market-capitalism-but-with-a-functioning-welfare-state type. But they are broadly socially liberal in so far as wanting to legalise cannabis or relax the rules around gender-self-identification and the like.

Although even then, the nature of their ideological outlook stops them from being completely signed up to what an atlas poster would call "socially liberal". Their climate change policy essentially consists of magical thinking (let's just do cap and trade and the market will fix everything!). And their position on sending home low qualified refugees once "safe" to do so would create outrage if it was, say, the Danish Social Democrats coming up with the same plan.

* in much of Europe the term "Social" refers to things like welfare state and workers rights and redistribution. Not "social issues" as in atlas/US political speak

[mileslunn]

Wouldn't FDP's economic views be a problem with a Traffic Light Coalition?  I believe SPD and Greens both want higher taxes on wealthy while FDP wants to cut them for all including wealthy so would that be a stumbling block or would they proceed with tax cuts for middle and lower income while leave top rates alone?  I would think on economic policy, CDU/CSU would be easier to work with than FDP as CDU/CSU seems more socially conservative than FDP, but more economically centrist.  Also how about minimum wage?  Does FDP support that or do they take the pro free market approach like Larry Elder of California did that there should be no minimum wage which until about a decade ago Germany didn't have?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Although even then, the nature of their ideological outlook stops them from being completely signed up to what an atlas poster would call "socially liberal". Their climate change policy essentially consists of magical thinking (let's just do cap and trade and the market will fix everything!). And their position on sending home low qualified refugees once "safe" to do so would create outrage if it was, say, the Danish Social Democrats coming up with the same plan.

Cap and trade and letting the market solve climate change is common sense. The solution to climate change is reducing carbon emissions by creating a cap on carbon dioxide emissions. The issue is that to ensure our current standard of living we need to burn some carbon dioxide at least temporarliy.

By allowing the market to allocare permissison to burn carbon we will be able to reduce carbon dioxide in the most efficent manner possible with the least impact to our living standards. They are also the only pro-nuclear party in germany after teh CDU's heal faced turn following fukishima. They are the best party for the enviorment if that is what matters to you.

[parochial boy]

Although even then, the nature of their ideological outlook stops them from being completely signed up to what an atlas poster would call "socially liberal". Their climate change policy essentially consists of magical thinking (let's just do cap and trade and the market will fix everything!). And their position on sending home low qualified refugees once "safe" to do so would create outrage if it was, say, the Danish Social Democrats coming up with the same plan.

Cap and trade and letting the market solve climate change is common sense. The solution to climate change is reducing carbon emissions by creating a cap on carbon dioxide emissions. The issue is that to ensure our current standard of living we need to burn some carbon dioxide at least temporarliy.

By allowing the market to allocare permissison to burn carbon we will be able to reduce carbon dioxide in the most efficent manner possible with the least impact to our living standards. They are also the only pro-nuclear party in germany after teh CDU's heal faced turn following fukishima. They are the best party for the enviorment if that is what matters to you.

There already is an EU wide cap and trade scheme, and guess what, it has been a complete failure. Shockingly. Even if you did redesign it to work better it would still be completely insufficient. Climate change is something that is going to require proactive state action in building up renewables; subsidizing green technologies and green infrastructure (insulating houses, electric car charging points, investing in the railways* etc); as well as phasing out petrol cars or internal flights. All viable options that have been introduced elsewhere.

The FDPs policy that the market can do everything by itself is quite simply wishful thinking on the part of a party that is so unwilling to accept that it’s ideology’s failure that they can’t come up with a serious way to address the issue

*especially with regards to, say, moving freight transport from road to rail - something that the market is fundamentally not going to be unless the state drives thr process. Also something the CDU has been so allergic to doing that they let the Swiss spend bilions on a 60km long tunnel the alps and didn't even hold up to their much cheaper side of the bargain in upgrading the Rhine-side mainline. Stuff like this is why they aren't credible either

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Although even then, the nature of their ideological outlook stops them from being completely signed up to what an atlas poster would call "socially liberal". Their climate change policy essentially consists of magical thinking (let's just do cap and trade and the market will fix everything!). And their position on sending home low qualified refugees once "safe" to do so would create outrage if it was, say, the Danish Social Democrats coming up with the same plan.

Cap and trade and letting the market solve climate change is common sense. The solution to climate change is reducing carbon emissions by creating a cap on carbon dioxide emissions. The issue is that to ensure our current standard of living we need to burn some carbon dioxide at least temporarliy.

By allowing the market to allocare permissison to burn carbon we will be able to reduce carbon dioxide in the most efficent manner possible with the least impact to our living standards. They are also the only pro-nuclear party in germany after teh CDU's heal faced turn following fukishima. They are the best party for the enviorment if that is what matters to you.

There already is an EU wide cap and trade scheme, and guess what, it has been a complete failure. Shockingly. Even if you did redesign it to work better it would still be completely insufficient. Climate change is something that is going to require proactive state action in building up renewables; subsidizing green technologies and green infrastructure (insulating houses, electric car charging points, investing in the railways* etc); as well as phasing out petrol cars or internal flights. All viable options that have been introduced elsewhere.

The FDPs policy that the market can do everything by itself is quite simply wishful thinking on the part of a party that is so unwilling to accept that it’s ideology’s failure that they can’t come up with a serious way to address the issue

*especially with regards to, say, moving freight transport from road to rail - something that the market is fundamentally not going to be unless the state drives thr process. Also something the CDU has been so allergic to doing that they let the Swiss spend bilions on a 60km long tunnel the alps and didn't even hold up to their much cheaper side of the bargain in upgrading the Rhine-side mainline. Stuff like this is why they aren't credible either

That's simply because the CAP the EU placed on carbon dioxide emissions were way too high, if they reduced the cap the market would be able to handle all those things.

[TheTide]

FDP seems to have undergone a remarkable number of transformations since 1949, more so than any of the big German parties.

Yes - sh**t, Crap, sh**tty, Crappy........

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Reading through this thread, I think people might be confusing "social liberal" as it is understood in the typical European political spectrum, and "socially liberal" as the term is typically used on here*. The FDP are not a social liberal party, at all, in so far as that tends to mean parties with a wet, economically centrist market-capitalism-but-with-a-functioning-welfare-state type. But they are broadly socially liberal in so far as wanting to legalise cannabis or relax the rules around gender-self-identification and the like.

Although even then, the nature of their ideological outlook stops them from being completely signed up to what an atlas poster would call "socially liberal". Their climate change policy essentially consists of magical thinking (let's just do cap and trade and the market will fix everything!). And their position on sending home low qualified refugees once "safe" to do so would create outrage if it was, say, the Danish Social Democrats coming up with the same plan.

* in much of Europe the term "Social" refers to things like welfare state and workers rights and redistribution. Not "social issues" as in atlas/US political speak

Yes, also, it is not "woke", what for some would constitute the extreme of being socially liberal - the FDP is pro-gay marriage (has been for a long time) and pro trans-rights, but they are also big on this whole "freedom of speech"-shtick, something that has not been publically associated with woke culture but by those who oppose it. Also, the FDP has a somewhat large internet following among edgy teenage boys, who are also not very woke.

Wouldn't FDP's economic views be a problem with a Traffic Light Coalition?  I believe SPD and Greens both want higher taxes on wealthy while FDP wants to cut them for all including wealthy so would that be a stumbling block or would they proceed with tax cuts for middle and lower income while leave top rates alone?  I would think on economic policy, CDU/CSU would be easier to work with than FDP as CDU/CSU seems more socially conservative than FDP, but more economically centrist.  Also how about minimum wage?  Does FDP support that or do they take the pro free market approach like Larry Elder of California did that there should be no minimum wage which until about a decade ago Germany didn't have?

You are right. The minimum wage was introduced in 2014, the FDP was vehemently against it. I think they have shifted on this issue - surely no one serious in the party would want to abolish the minimum wage and there is a broad consensus that the minimum wage must at minimum rise proportionately to the rate of inflation. The FDP wouldn't want to go any further, however.

Isn't it true that the nickname for the FDP in Germany is "the party of doctors and dentists"?

Yes - doctors, dentists, lawyers, hoteliers. Anyone with a large paycheck.

FDP seems to have undergone a remarkable number of transformations since 1949, more so than any of the big German parties.

It's been a wild ride, considering that they were the party of Nazi sympathizers in the early days of the republic.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

All these tools from cap and trade, carbons tax or "proactive state action in building up renewables; subsidizing green technologies and green infrastructure" are essentially the same, but has [slightly?] different trade-offs. I don't believe there is a consensus which tool is better. Governments/entities use all of these tools adapting them for their countries situation/needs/political will.

One can argue, that FDP doesn't go far enough fast enough, but calling cap and trade + market a magical thinking, ahm what?

Wouldn't FDP's economic views be a problem with a Traffic Light Coalition?  I believe SPD and Greens both want higher taxes on wealthy while FDP wants to cut them for all including wealthy so would that be a stumbling block or would they proceed with tax cuts for middle and lower income while leave top rates alone?  I would think on economic policy, CDU/CSU would be easier to work with than FDP as CDU/CSU seems more socially conservative than FDP, but more economically centrist.  Also how about minimum wage?  Does FDP support that or do they take the pro free market approach like Larry Elder of California did that there should be no minimum wage which until about a decade ago Germany didn't have?

https://www.ft.com/content/556549ff-ca65-44f4-822c-1980d2e87fec
German liberal leader signals bumps on road to ‘traffic-light’ coalition
Conditions set by FDP’s Christian Lindner likely to be hard for SPD and Greens to accept

The leader of Germany’s liberal Free Democrats has set strict conditions for joining a possible coalition with the Social Democrats and Greens after next week’s national election, demanding tax cuts, curbs on new borrowing and a return to pre-pandemic spending rules.

“The prerequisite for us joining any coalition is that we can’t have tax increases and we respect the constitutional debt brake,” Christian Lindner, leader of the FDP, told the Financial Times. “Whoever wants to do something else will have to look for another partner.”

In the event of this so-called “traffic-light” tie-up — named for the parties’ respective colours of red, green and yellow — Lindner, a 42-year-old MP who has led the FDP since 2013, would be a leading contender to become Germany’s next finance minister and therefore one of Europe’s most powerful politicians.

But differences between the three parties will be hard to bridge. The SPD and Greens favour higher taxes, greater public investment and a redistribution of wealth to the poorest — demands that may prove difficult for the fiscally conservative, pro-business FDP to swallow.

Still, the ideological gulf between the FDP and the left-leaning SPD and Greens — particularly on European policy — will be hard to overcome. Speaking at his office in the Bundestag, Lindner insisted that Germany and other European countries should curb their spending after the big splurges seen during the Covid-19 pandemic. “Pressing on with an ultra-expansionary fiscal policy for Europe would be a big danger,” he said.

That stance puts him at odds with the Greens, who want to reform Germany’s debt brake — its constitutional curb on new borrowing — unleash a €500bn, 10-year investment drive and loosen the EU’s fiscal rules, which limit state debt to 60 per cent of GDP and budget deficits to 3 per cent. The EU is examining whether these rules, which were suspended when coronavirus hit, should be overhauled given the surge in public debt during the pandemic.

[President Johnson]

Another YouGov poll shows no significant movement, only Die Linke gains two points, which is kinda surprising, but probably statistical noise.

If that keeps up, looks like the Finance Minstery raid didn't have an impact. Maybe the opposite is about to happen, as the press increasingly reports critical of the handling and time. The responsible Osnabrück attorney is a CDU member and search warrant was already issues on August 10. So why would you wait a whole month for the raid? Usually a raid is conducted when evidence is about to disappear. Furthermore, the attorney's press statement and court issued search warrant don't exactly match each other. SPD politicians increasingly believe everything isn't a co-incidence and may be a hit job against Scholz (who's not even under investigation himself).

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438367344712110081

[H. Ross Peron]

Would be nice to see the Die Linke do as well as possible without cutting into the SPD lead since that will strengthen Scholz's bargaining position for a traffic light coalition.

[President Johnson]

Three more polls out (I hope the Tweets don't make the page unreadable).

The Union has stopped the bleeding, though there wasn't much territory to fall anymore. However, a real backbouncing would look differently. With every passing day and ongoing voting by mail the SPD remains ahead - often outside the margin of error - I'm growing more and more optimistic. The race still isn't won of course. Undeniably is time running out for Laschet, that much is certain.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438534387587485701

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438450414618349569

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438501952891932678

[buritobr]

Well, according to the last Infratest Dimap:

BUNDESTAGSWAHL | Sonntagsfrage Infratest dimap/ARD
SPD: 26% (+1)
Union: 22% (+2)
GRÜNE: 15% (-1)
AfD: 11% (-1)
FDP: 11% (-2)
LINKE: 6%
FW: 3% (NEU)
Sonstige: 6% (-2)

Since only >5% parties have seats, if the results were these, the share of the seats in the Bundestag would be:

SPD 28.6%
Union 24.2%
Grüne 16.5%
FDP 12.1%
AfD 12.1%
Linke 6.6%

The possible coaltions would be:
Kenya 69.2%
Deutschland (Germany) 64.8%
Ampel (traffic lights) 57.1%
Jamaika 52.7%
Grossekoalition (great) 52.7%
Rot-rot-grün (red-red-green) 51.6%