This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.
Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.
Party registration is not nearly as useful a tool for estimating outcomes in Nevada as it used to be. Republicans may have gained on Democrats since 2020 but it's not because they are gaining more registrants, it's because they are losing them at a slower rate than the Democrats. Meanwhile unaffiliated/minor party registrations are exploding. In Nov 2020 "other" voters made up 31% of the electorate, today it's 40%. A large share of these non major party registrants are young people who were automatically registered and never bothered to pick a party but would be more likely to vote Democratic than Republican if they bother to show up and vote.
This is more or less what happened in the 2022 midterms. Interesting that this poll went from Biden leading to Trump leading within the last 12-24 hours.
Poll
