CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[LimoLiberal]

Freitas was just endorsed by Americans for Prosperity (Koch Brother's Group). Moving VA-Sen to Tossup/Tilt D if he wins the primary over Stewart. He's a very charismatic, good looking state delegate. Kaine is in for a major challenge in a state where Trump isn't even above 50% in disapproval, according to the latest poll.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Freitas was just endorsed by Americans for Prosperity (Koch Brother's Group). Moving VA-Sen to Tossup/Tilt D if he wins the primary over Stewart. He's a very charismatic, good looking state delegate. Kaine is in for a major challenge in a state where Trump isn't even above 50% in disapproval, according to the latest poll.

Yes, now that you mention it, Freitas is quite strong. I don't think he will be the nominee (hence likely D), but if he is, I would have to move this to strong Lean D.

[Virginiá]

Freitas was just endorsed by Americans for Prosperity (Koch Brother's Group). Moving VA-Sen to Tossup/Tilt D if he wins the primary over Stewart. He's a very charismatic, good looking state delegate. Kaine is in for a major challenge in a state where Trump isn't even above 50% in disapproval, according to the latest poll.

Gillespie was also considered a good candidate and he lost an open seat contest by almost double digits. That you think Republicans could topple an incumbent Virginia Senator in a D-favorable year is quite funny but predictable for you.

Republican candidate quality doesn't really matter in that race. No matter what happens, you never seem to learn a thing. Your mind model always has a thumb on the scale for Republicans.

[LimoLiberal]

Freitas was just endorsed by Americans for Prosperity (Koch Brother's Group). Moving VA-Sen to Tossup/Tilt D if he wins the primary over Stewart. He's a very charismatic, good looking state delegate. Kaine is in for a major challenge in a state where Trump isn't even above 50% in disapproval, according to the latest poll.

Gillespie was also considered a good candidate and he lost an open seat contest by almost double digits. That you think Republicans could topple an incumbent Virginia Senator in a D-favorable year is quite funny but predictable for you.

Republican candidate quality doesn't really matter in that race. No matter what happens, you never seem to learn a thing. Your mind model always has a thumb on the scale for Republicans.

1) Trump has gained significant ground upwards in approval since Nov 2017
2) Although Gillespie was touted as a good candidate by the MSM, I think Freitas in comparison actually is better (he can unite the trump + moderate r coalition better_
But Kaine is still a favorite.

[Maxwell]

you're deliberately trying to get people to react to you. blocked.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Oh man. Sometimes I find it hard to believe that Jacob Wohl is an actual person-

https://twitter.com/JacobAWohl/status/1004224965757947905

[LimoLiberal]

you're deliberately trying to get people to react to you. blocked.

Nope. And I think people on this forum are on average, closer to me in their view on the 2018 midterms than someone like Mondale or Pittsburgh Steel. My goal is not to make people react. If I have a goal, it's to speak my beliefs on electoral politics and justify them with evidence.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oh man. Sometimes I find it hard to believe that Jacob Wohl is an actual person-

https://twitter.com/JacobAWohl/status/1004224965757947905

LOL.  He's in for a rude shock in November.

[junior chįmp]

you're deliberately trying to get people to react to you. blocked.

Nope. And I think people on this forum are on average, closer to me in their view on the 2018 midterms than someone like Mondale or Pittsburgh Steel. My goal is not to make people react. If I have a goal, it's to speak my beliefs on electoral politics and justify them with evidence.

Nope. And I think people on this forum are on average, closer to me in their view on the 2018 midterms than someone like LimoLiberal or Bagel. My goal is not to make people react. If I have a goal, it's to speak my beliefs on electoral politics and justify them with evidence.

[Hindsight was 2020]

you're deliberately trying to get people to react to you. blocked.

Nope. And I think people on this forum are on average, closer to me in their view on the 2018 midterms than someone like Mondale or Pittsburgh Steel. My goal is not to make people react. If I have a goal, it's to speak my beliefs on electoral politics and justify them with evidence.

Except you don’t. You post ridiculous predictions like this new garbage of Virginia being lean d. Another great example is today Trump’s approval in Q went up from 39/54 to 40/51 and you said that proved “blue wave is dead”. Going from 39 to 40 and 54 to 51 is not big at all and you’ve been here long enough to know that

[Nyvin]

Oh man. Sometimes I find it hard to believe that Jacob Wohl is an actual person-

https://twitter.com/JacobAWohl/status/1004224965757947905

LOL.  He's in for a rude shock in November.

https://twitter.com/JacobAWohl/status/1004352230550573057

I'd like him to explain that one

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Oh man. Sometimes I find it hard to believe that Jacob Wohl is an actual person-

https://twitter.com/JacobAWohl/status/1004224965757947905

LOL. As if Newsom was the only Dem on the ballot.

[VPH]

Looks like NJ-02 is Likely GOP. Van Drew raised nearly 30 times what his GOP opponent has.

You mean Likely Dem?

yep oops

[Virginiá]

Except you don’t. You post ridiculous predictions like this new garbage of Virginia being lean d. Another great example is today Trump’s approval in Q went up from 39/54 to 40/51 and you said that proved “blue wave is dead”. Going from 39 to 40 and 54 to 51 is not big at all and you’ve been here long enough to know that

The truth, whether or not he will admit it, is that Limo is as much of (if not more) a hack as the people he has been criticizing lately. It's incredibly clear that he made up his mind of an R-favorable year a long time ago, and he ignores D-favorable data/conditions whenever necessary but jumps on any R-favorable data the second it drops. To him, any data favorable to Democrats is just misrepresenting the situation, which he is sure will be considerably more Republican-leaning by November. And this is putting aside his trolling too - I do believe him when he says these are his real beliefs.

I'm just not sure what happened to convince Limo so deeply that 2018 was not going to be a Dem-favorable year. I wonder if it was as mind-numbingly stupid as what King Lear said when I asked him the same question: "the polls were wrong in 2016"

[Virginiá]

I'm just not sure what happened to convince Limo so deeply that 2018 was not going to be a Dem-favorable year. I wonder if it was as mind-numbingly stupid as what King Lear said when I asked him the same question: "the polls were wrong in 2016"

Like when a pubescent teen picks a person to crush on and convinces themselves that they are or will be in a relationship with that person. And they spend all time rationalizing that it can and will happen and latch onto any sign that it’ll occur and ignore any and all warning signs.

I hope it's not as deep as a crush, because god only knows what he does when a good Republican-favoring poll comes out

[NOVA Green]

Are we expecting to have a substantial additional amount of votes counted in California today? Or do we have to wait a few days for additional results?

So haven't had a chance to check through the individual County sites yet for the 2018 "California Jungle Primary" Updates, but did spend quite a bit of time in the 2016 Democratic California Presidential Primary back in the days and spent a significant amount of time on a thread that basically turned into virtually a month long California Dem Pres Primary Results and Updates Megathread.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=238320.msg5109392#msg5109392

Although I just got off work and haven't had a chance to really delve into a compare/contrast between the '16 and '18 Primary numbers, in the '16 Cali Dem Primary there were an additional 130k Dem Primary Votes updated between 6/8 early AM and 6/9 ~ 7 PM PST....

*** These numbers were gleaned from individual County websites as opposed to the Cali SoS website that only added an additional 50k votes during that same time frame ***

I have a whole spreadsheet of daily updates by County for the '16 Dem Primary, but it's stored on some remote device since my PC crashed a year or so back, and don't feel like trying to locate it right now....

The general pattern for vote counting in California tends to run as follows...

Early Mail in Votes > Election Day Votes > Late Mail in Votes > Provisional Votes

On 6/11/16 there was a huge dump of 250k Dem Primary Votes....

In '16 between early Wednesday AM and Friday PM, there were an additional 400k Dem ballots added in the Dem Pres Primary!!!!

By 6/14/16 PST PM (Monday) 200k more ballots were added....

6/15/16 PST PM (Tuesday) 250k more ballots counted...

On 6/15/16 HRC was still leading Bernie by +11%....

By 6/18/16 Cali was mostly done counting Same Day / Early Vote by Mail / Late Vote by Mail ballots....

About 65% of the bulk of the Provisional ballots in the '16 Dem Primary were from SoCal.....

Where I'm going with all this is something most of our astute Atlas forum members have already referenced or have followed:

When it comes to California Primary elections (And even more so in California General Elections) is that the later ballots counted in California tend to skew heavily younger, working-middle class, and with a much lower % of Anglos than the earliest votes reported (ED + Early VbM).


I would be extremely cautious trying to read the bird entrails or smoke the Tea Leaves regarding the California Primary Election, and potential implications for November, until we start to receive some the the Late Vote By Mail (VbM) numbers....

Remember there is a good chance that the Provos (Provisional Ballots) might well swoop in at the last minute and create some unexpected changes in certain elections, although I gather that California is trying to streamline that process a little bit, but hell every Provisional Ballot has to be matched against signature vs cross-reference against ballot sent out, Previous Voting Addresses in different Counties, Cali DMV, etc....

For any of you 'Pubs out there that might want to cry Wolf and voter fraud simply because the people voting tend to be younger, blacker and browner, and more importantly for your agenda (Democrat), do not complain when you need to wait a Month to see election results from the Golden State....

So---- Long Answer to Short Question....



Anyone with the patience, we are all waiting for the Great Leap Forward, and although California Election Results are slow, they are accurate and encourage voting and participation in the political process regardless of....

In the words of the great British artist Billy Bragg: "Great Leap Forward"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZaYEniPaJg




 

[Virginiá]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/6/6/1769813/-Ignore-the-predictable-demsindisarray-hot-takes-Democrats-did-very-well-in-California-s-primaries

[Virginiá]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/6/6/1769813/-Ignore-the-predictable-demsindisarray-hot-takes-Democrats-did-very-well-in-California-s-primaries

Yeah federal Democrats did very well all in all (minus CA-21 since apparently Valadao is Joe Manchin in reverse). The state GOP didn’t get crushed which is a victory of expectations for them I suppose. Plenty of republican state senators/assemblymen got a good number of Federal-D/state-R split ticket voters it appears.

I'd say #3 on the article's list is particularly relevant to the Bagel's and Limo's of the world. Even with a substantial number of votes pending, Democrats have already improved considerably on their performance in 2016, which was even inflated in favor of Democrats due to the presidential primary, which is kind of a double-whammy for Republicans. The only good news really is what you said - Joe Manchin Valadao and Republican state lawmakers, although I'd really be surprised if Democrats didn't pick up a decent chunk of Clinton-Republican legislative seats up this November.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Are we expecting to have a substantial additional amount of votes counted in California today? Or do we have to wait a few days for additional results?

So haven't had a chance to check through the individual County sites yet for the 2018 "California Jungle Primary" Updates, but did spend quite a bit of time in the 2016 Democratic California Presidential Primary back in the days and spent a significant amount of time on a thread that basically turned into virtually a month long California Dem Pres Primary Results and Updates Megathread.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=238320.msg5109392#msg5109392

Although I just got off work and haven't had a chance to really delve into a compare/contrast between the '16 and '18 Primary numbers, in the '16 Cali Dem Primary there were an additional 130k Dem Primary Votes updated between 6/8 early AM and 6/9 ~ 7 PM PST....

*** These numbers were gleaned from individual County websites as opposed to the Cali SoS website that only added an additional 50k votes during that same time frame ***

I have a whole spreadsheet of daily updates by County for the '16 Dem Primary, but it's stored on some remote device since my PC crashed a year or so back, and don't feel like trying to locate it right now....

The general pattern for vote counting in California tends to run as follows...

Early Mail in Votes > Election Day Votes > Late Mail in Votes > Provisional Votes

On 6/11/16 there was a huge dump of 250k Dem Primary Votes....

In '16 between early Wednesday AM and Friday PM, there were an additional 400k Dem ballots added in the Dem Pres Primary!!!!

By 6/14/16 PST PM (Monday) 200k more ballots were added....

6/15/16 PST PM (Tuesday) 250k more ballots counted...

On 6/15/16 HRC was still leading Bernie by +11%....

By 6/18/16 Cali was mostly done counting Same Day / Early Vote by Mail / Late Vote by Mail ballots....

About 65% of the bulk of the Provisional ballots in the '16 Dem Primary were from SoCal.....

Where I'm going with all this is something most of our astute Atlas forum members have already referenced or have followed:

When it comes to California Primary elections (And even more so in California General Elections) is that the later ballots counted in California tend to skew heavily younger, working-middle class, and with a much lower % of Anglos than the earliest votes reported (ED + Early VbM).


I would be extremely cautious trying to read the bird entrails or smoke the Tea Leaves regarding the California Primary Election, and potential implications for November, until we start to receive some the the Late Vote By Mail (VbM) numbers....

Remember there is a good chance that the Provos (Provisional Ballots) might well swoop in at the last minute and create some unexpected changes in certain elections, although I gather that California is trying to streamline that process a little bit, but hell every Provisional Ballot has to be matched against signature vs cross-reference against ballot sent out, Previous Voting Addresses in different Counties, Cali DMV, etc....

For any of you 'Pubs out there that might want to cry Wolf and voter fraud simply because the people voting tend to be younger, blacker and browner, and more importantly for your agenda (Democrat), do not complain when you need to wait a Month to see election results from the Golden State....

So---- Long Answer to Short Question....



Anyone with the patience, we are all waiting for the Great Leap Forward, and although California Election Results are slow, they are accurate and encourage voting and participation in the political process regardless of....

In the words of the great British artist Billy Bragg: "Great Leap Forward"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZaYEniPaJg

The provisional ballots in the last Presidential primary obviously greatly favored Bernie, and so Hillary's margin of victory tightened when all was finally counted a month later. There was some issues with NPP voters being told they couldn't vote in the Democratic primary, or being forced to vote provisionally. Of course the poor and students are more likely to move around and have to vote provisionally because of issues there.

California has always had a leftward shift as more results come on. I remember seeing Bush at like 60% in the initial results in 2000, but they still immediately called it for Gore, and I think they would have still called it even had they not been a bit too trigger happy on calling elections in 2000.

[Torie]

Scott Baugh has conceded. Endorsed Rohrabacher.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1004506949004791809

Rhouda  slipped behind Kirstead by a few votes when the batch of votes from yesterday were counted. So I don't know how the Dem gurus "expect" Rouda to get second place. It seems totally up in the air to me.

[Bidenworth2020]

Scott Baugh has conceded. Endorsed Rohrabacher.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1004506949004791809

Rhouda  slipped behind Kirstead by a few votes when the batch of votes from yesterday were counted. So I don't know how the Dem gurus "expect" Rouda to get second place. It seems totally up in the air to me.

maybe the remaining votes are heavily favorable to him?

[DINGO Joe]

Scott Baugh has conceded. Endorsed Rohrabacher.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1004506949004791809

Rhouda  slipped behind Kirstead by a few votes when the batch of votes from yesterday were counted. So I don't know how the Dem gurus "expect" Rouda to get second place. It seems totally up in the air to me.

maybe the remaining votes are heavily favorable to him?

Don't know how anyone could know that though

[ltomlinson31]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004777899319283714?s=19

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

how the hell is there still 55k more ballots? 160k votes for a primary is p ridiculous

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004777899319283714?s=19

After today's update, Hans has stretched his lead to 129 votes.