I'm at a hardcore show now so I'll say more when I get home/sober up but one thing I think is being underdiscussed is who exactly is Sinema going to get her campaign funds from? Corporate PACs aren't enough and probably won't even be interested, they like to back winners. Maybe she can get some hoping to keep influence for the rest of her current Senate term but those can only go so far with fundraising limits. And who is going to go doorknock for her?
People have no idea what they're talking about on financing campaigns anymore. You're absolutely right. People think "big money" is, well, big. It really, really isn't, in the age of ActBlue etc. It's wild how many people haven't noticed Dems outraising/outspending Rs basically everywhere ever in 2018, 2020, and 2022...and Indies have it much worse than Rs. Gallego will likely outraise her 5X or more every quarter, and the R will be way ahead of her as well. There is no ActBlue or WinRed for an independent candidate.
And you mentioned doorknocking, but, like I said in the other thread, she needs 42k signatures to get on the ballot. She'll need to pay signature gatherers, and they are expensive. No volunteers will touch this.
I think if she tries she PROBABLY gets on the ballot, but it's FAR from a sure thing.
And as we've learnt from other states (not sure what the specific AZ rules are) you generally need to have a good padding in case the signatures get challenged.
Imagine if a Michigan-style sgnatures scandal kept Sinema off the ballot!
