The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Erc]

It looks like the results out of Nevada change the results there from 20-15 Clinton to 19-16 Sanders.

Another victory for glorious people's democracy.

If you thought the Polk County convention was bad...

[Erc]

A closer reading of the delegate selection plan reveals that the district delegates are still bound based on the caucus vote, so this result only flips two delegates (one At-Large and one At-Large PLEO), for a result of:

18 Clinton - 17 Sanders.

[Erc]

The Virgin Islands hilarity continues...

Apparently a majority of the Dispute Subcommittee has ruled in the Yobs' favor on Friday (despite the appearance of the contrary in Canegata's recent letter).  It's the Certification Subcommittee that actually matters, of course, and a majority there may still be siding with Canegata (though there is a very vocal minority).

RNC member (and unpledged delegate ex officio) Holland Redfield predicts it won't be resolved until the convention:

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The Yobs and Canegata have taken to the airwaves over the dispute, with the Yobs taking out radio ads attacking Canegata, and Valerie Stiles (who initiated the court case regarding the Yobs' residency) buying ads against the Yobs.

[The Other Castro]

Erc, which faction are you personally siding with fairness-wise? It feels like Yob is more correct, but as usual the Yobs of the world are being yobbed.

[Erc]

Erc, which faction are you personally siding with fairness-wise? It feels like Yob is more correct, but as usual the Yobs of the world are being yobbed.

Canegata's case for throwing the Yobs out based on whether they accepted their delegate slots is completely and egregiously fabricated, so I'm on the Yobs' side for that dispute.

As to the residency dispute, in a just world the Yobs would be thrown out.  But I'm not sure as to the merits of the case.

[Vosem]

Results in ND are 19 from the slate recommended by Ted Cruz are elected, and the other 6 positions go uncommitted (so 9 uncommitted total when including the 3 RNC members). While none of the delegates are bound and there have been some reports of secret Kasich supporters in the Cruz slate (a fellow named Dick Dever, who was on the Cruz slate and was elected, apparently has very pro-Kasich social media), I think it's fair to count the state as 19C-9U, and to simply make a note that delegates from North Dakota are free to vote their conscience from the first ballot and so there could be some surprises.

[Erc]

North Dakota Results

A motion to have the delegate candidates announce their presidential preference was defeated (thanks to Curly Haugland et al.), so interpreting the results is not going to be incredibly simple.

Unlike in 2012, the slate of 25 delegates presented by the Committee on Permanent Organization was not elected in its entirely.  Cruz presented a slate of 23 candidates (with some overlap with the CPO slate), many of whom were elected instead.

Ultimately, 18 of those on the Cruz slate were elected.  Of the remaining six, we have Governor and First Lady Jack & Betsy Dalrymple and Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem, who are all apparently staying neutral for now.  The other three are Gary Emineth (lean Trump), ND Treasurer Kelly Schmidt (lean Cruz), and Bob Wefald (unknown).

Of the 18 elected on the Cruz slate, it appears not all of them are 100% committed to Cruz.  There are some details in the Politico article linked above, but the only one I'm going to take out of the Cruz column at the moment is Dick Dever, who prefers Kasich (but has not fully made up his mind yet), and was apparently added to the Cruz slate without his permission.

The resulting 17 Cruz delegates are enough to give him a Rule 40 majority (assuming no major switches of allegiance), giving him his 7th Rule 40 state by my reckoning.  He should presumably get his 8th on Tuesday in Wisconsin, and if not, almost certainly by the end of the week.

[Ronnie]

For anyone interested, here's a pretty comprehensive article about Rule 40, and how it would affect Kasich at the convention:

https://www.google.com/amp/www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/amp/trump-cruz-work-block-kasich-ballot-open-convention-n549996?client=safari#

[yankeesfan]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/ted-cruzs-2016-iowa-new-hampshire-118799

This is an interesting article to read in retrospect.  It's from June 2015 and the Cruz camp was already predicting a contested convention and building their whole organization on that premise.

"Our strategy is taking it to the convention, which is why you’ve seen us announcing chairmen in California and New Jersey, as well as Iowa and New Hampshire,” said Mark Campbell, Cruz’s political director. “There are 2,470 [delegates] total, and you need 1,236 of them to win. None of these can be accumulated at any one time, which is why it’s a marathon more than a sprint. So we are methodically going state by state, focusing on grass roots and party activists.”

[RogueBeaver]

Cruz snaring Trump's AZ delegates.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Does Wisconsin have a 50% WTA trigger?

[yankeesfan]

Does Wisconsin have a 50% WTA trigger?

No.  It's 18 to the state-wide winner and 3 for the winner of each of the 8 congressional districts.  

But if someone gets 50% statewide, it's likely they've won all districts.  

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Cruz snaring Trump's AZ delegates.

I've been trying to predict how many delegates will easily flock to Cruz after the first ballot.  Right now Cruz has 463ish.  Say he gets a sweep of Wisconsin, and wins Indiana's and California's WTA.  That gets him to 734.  (He'll also have more from other remaining contests, but we won't count them yet).

Here are states without a Trump majority and a strong Cruz contingent, in the South.  I see these flipping to Cruz:

(Delegates not already in Cruz column)
AR: 25
LA: 25
KY: 31
NC: 45

That brings Cruz to 860.

Now add in the non-Cruz delegates in Cruz states if they unify behind him:
TX: 51
OK: 26
KS: 16
WY: 2
ID: 12
ME: 11
IA: 22
AK: 14

Now his total is 1014.

Add missing delegates from Trump-plurality states outside the deep south, if they fall in line:

NV: 24
MI: 42
VA: 41
NH: 20

1141.

Add Arizona, if this story has any merit:

1199.

I have get to consider OR (28), MT (27), SD (29), WA (44), or NM (24), all great chances for Cruz to pick up more delegates before the convention.

[Erc]

Cruz snaring Trump's AZ delegates.

I've been trying to predict how many delegates will easily flock to Cruz after the first ballot.  Right now Cruz has 463ish.  Say he gets a sweep of Wisconsin, and wins Indiana's and California's WTA.  That gets him to 734.  (He'll also have more from other remaining contests, but we won't count them yet).

Here are states without a Trump majority and a strong Cruz contingent, in the South.  I see these flipping to Cruz:

(Delegates not already in Cruz column)
AR: 25
LA: 25
KY: 31
NC: 45

That brings Cruz to 860.

Now add in the non-Cruz delegates in Cruz states if they unify behind him:
TX: 51
OK: 26
KS: 16
WY: 2
ID: 12
ME: 11
IA: 22
AK: 14

Now his total is 1014.

Add missing delegates from Trump-plurality states outside the deep south, if they fall in line:

NV: 24
MI: 42
VA: 41
NH: 20

1141.

Add Arizona, if this story has any merit:

1199.

I have get to consider OR (28), MT (27), SD (29), WA (44), or NM (24), all great chances for Cruz to pick up more delegates before the convention.

A few nitpicks:

I believe reports indicate that Trump actually got his preferred delegates in Louisiana, though of course none of the Uncommitted/Rubio slates.  I'd expect going forward that in states where Trump can formally express a preference for his delegates (such as Arkansas), he at least gets some of them (see e.g. TN where roughly half of the state-selected Trump delegates were still Trump supporters).

North Carolina held its first CD conventions this weekend, though I've heard no reports out of them so far.

Trump's one delegate in Wyoming (directly elected in Teton County) is probably securely pro-Trump.

9-10 of Trump's 12 Idaho delegates are chosen by the Trump campaign, and are thus likely secure.

There's a strong Trump presence in the NV GOP (e.g. Trump's only RNC member endorsement is from there), so it's possible he hangs on there.  Though if 2012 is any indication, I'd honestly expect Cruz to sweep.

All but 1 or 2 of Trump's New Hampshire delegates were chosen by the campaign, and are thus secure.

And of course, there's also the possibility that "establishment-chosen" delegates flock to someone who isn't Trump or Cruz.  I'll admit this seems unlikely in the South and West, but it's something to keep an eye on.  There seem to be a fair amount of uncommitted ex-Rubio supporters out there among folks being elected as delegates.

[Erc]

Pittsburgh Tribune-Review has a survey of the delegate candidates in Pennsylvania and their presidential leanings.

There are an awful lot who are saying that they will vote for whoever wins their district; if such delegates win and stick to their commitment, the primary in Pennsylvania may matter more than we thought.

[Ebsy]

Pittsburgh Tribune-Review has a survey of the delegate candidates in Pennsylvania and their presidential leanings.

There are an awful lot who are saying that they will vote for whoever wins their district; if such delegates win and stick to their commitment, the primary in Pennsylvania may matter more than we thought.

While that would be great, it is going to add so much uncertainty to the first ballot.

[Erc]

In two Pennsylvania districts, there are only three candidates running, so we already know the delegates that will be elected:

CD 1:
CHRISTOPHER M VOGLER: Strongly leaning toward voting for whoever wins his district.   
SETH KAUFER: Uncommitted   
DAVE HACKETT: Formerly Christie

CD 14:
MARY ANN MELOY      
CAMERON S LINTON: Uncommitted: “I want to see the results of the district and the statewide results before I begin to think about how I would vote in Cleveland.”   
MIKE DEVANNEY: Uncommitted   (formerly Rubio and/or Christie)

[Erc]

Looking at just the top three candidates on the ballot in each district (ballot order was determined randomly), and including leaners, the counts are:

Winner of District: 22
Winner of State: 1
Uncommitted/Undecided: 8
Unknown: 12
Cruz: 7
Trump: 3
Kasich: 1

If people are lazy and just vote the top options, this could closely resemble the results on the night.

If Trump has a big win in Pennsylvania, and these people are telling the truth, Trump's path to 1237 could get a lot easier.

[Erc]

The Bismarck Tribune surveyed 22 of the 25 delegates elected in Fargo this weekend, and found 17 supporting Cruz (of which 3 were only leaning), and 1 lean Trump.

Notably, Dick Dever is saying he's in the "Cruz camp" (albeit with a lot of qualifiers), while Clare Carlson is saying that he is "firmly uncommitted."

I'm going to go with their count including leaners for the moment, which is thus 17 Cruz - 1 Trump.

[Torie]

Assuming Trump gets only 6 delegates out of Wisconsin, what percentage of the remaining delegates does he need to win from here on out to reach a majority?  Around 60%?

[dax00]

Assuming Trump gets only 6 delegates out of Wisconsin, what percentage of the remaining delegates does he need to win from here on out to reach a majority?  Around 60%?

If he were to get 6 in Wisconsin, that'll put him at 758 with 851 pledged delegates remaining. I project 151 unpledged delegates. 1237 - 758 = 479; 851 + 151 = 1002; 479 / 1002 = 47.8%

He's not going to win 50% of unpledged delegates.

Assuming 17 from PA, 5 from ND, 2 from GU, 3 from VI, 3 from AS, 3 from OK, 2 from NV and 1 from NH, his unpledged total would be 36. Assuming that, Trump would have to secure 52.06% of remaining pledged delegates.

[Erc]

Assuming Trump gets only 6 delegates out of Wisconsin, what percentage of the remaining delegates does he need to win from here on out to reach a majority?  Around 60%?

Assuming he wins 6 in WI and gets swept in the rest of CO and WY, he'd need to win 63% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to clinch on pledged delegates alone.

Tough, but doable; would require blowout wins in IN, CA, and NY, or a shock win in MT.

Of course, Trump is going to win some unpledged delegates.  Based on our most recent information, I'm going to project he wins at least 20 unpledged delegates out of Pennsylvania.  Combined with the rest of my projections, that puts him at 1205.  If he can convince a fair chunk of the remainder of the PA delegation, as well as a few insular delegates, he may just be able to eke out a win on the first ballot.

Pennsylvania, Indiana, and California are the keys.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Assuming Trump gets only 6 delegates out of Wisconsin, what percentage of the remaining delegates does he need to win from here on out to reach a majority?  Around 60%?

Assuming he wins 6 in WI and gets swept in the rest of CO and WY, he'd need to win 63% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to clinch on pledged delegates alone.

Tough, but doable; would require blowout wins in IN, CA, and NY, or a shock win in MT.

Of course, Trump is going to win some unpledged delegates.  Based on our most recent information, I'm going to project he wins at least 20 unpledged delegates out of Pennsylvania.  Combined with the rest of my projections, that puts him at 1205.  If he can convince a fair chunk of the remainder of the PA delegation, as well as a few insular delegates, he may just be able to eke out a win on the first ballot.

Pennsylvania, Indiana, and California are the keys.

Trump will not win Indiana.  He may have a shot in IN-2, IN-3, or IN-4, if delegates are apportioned by CD.  IN-07 is Kasich Kountry if he's still in the race, and the rest belongs to Cruz.

[Torie]

Assuming Trump gets only 6 delegates out of Wisconsin, what percentage of the remaining delegates does he need to win from here on out to reach a majority?  Around 60%?

Assuming he wins 6 in WI and gets swept in the rest of CO and WY, he'd need to win 63% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to clinch on pledged delegates alone.

Tough, but doable; would require blowout wins in IN, CA, and NY, or a shock win in MT.

Of course, Trump is going to win some unpledged delegates.  Based on our most recent information, I'm going to project he wins at least 20 unpledged delegates out of Pennsylvania.  Combined with the rest of my projections, that puts him at 1205.  If he can convince a fair chunk of the remainder of the PA delegation, as well as a few insular delegates, he may just be able to eke out a win on the first ballot.

Pennsylvania, Indiana, and California are the keys.

Thanks to you and dax00 for crunching the numbers for me. Hopefully Trump won't get as close as your projection. That's too close!

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Assuming Trump gets only 6 delegates out of Wisconsin, what percentage of the remaining delegates does he need to win from here on out to reach a majority?  Around 60%?

Assuming he wins 6 in WI and gets swept in the rest of CO and WY, he'd need to win 63% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to clinch on pledged delegates alone.

Tough, but doable; would require blowout wins in IN, CA, and NY, or a shock win in MT.

Of course, Trump is going to win some unpledged delegates.  Based on our most recent information, I'm going to project he wins at least 20 unpledged delegates out of Pennsylvania.  Combined with the rest of my projections, that puts him at 1205.  If he can convince a fair chunk of the remainder of the PA delegation, as well as a few insular delegates, he may just be able to eke out a win on the first ballot.

Pennsylvania, Indiana, and California are the keys.

Trump will not win Indiana.  He may have a shot in IN-2, IN-3, or IN-4, if delegates are apportioned by CD.  IN-07 is Kasich Kountry if he's still in the race, and the rest belongs to Cruz.

IN-3 is Stutzman territory thus almost safe Cruz. I'm in IN-4 and it's almost as evangelical as 3 thus also Cruz (Cruz's dad is coming to Kokomo Thursday). Kasich will be shut out and Trump will at best get IN-1.