2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Pericles]

These are good results. Early but looks good so far. I think the Democrats will win the House in 2018.

[Pericles]

Hillarycare never went to a vote but still cost Bill Clinton both houses of Congress in 1994.

[Pericles]

I applied the CNN poll(the margin) to the 2016 House races. It's a 19% swing(Republicans won the House popular vote by 1% in 2016).
2016 House elections
Nancy Pelosi-Democratic: 252+64 57.5%[1]
Paul Ryan-Republican: 183-64 39.6%
435 seats
218 for majority

Alabama 2: Nathan Mathis(D) defeats incumbent Martha Roby(R)
Alaska at-large: Steve Lindbeck(D) defeats incumbent Don Young(R)
Arizona 2: Matt Heinz(D) defeats incumbent Martha McSally(R)
California 1: Jim Reed(D) defeats incumbent Doug LaMalfa(R)
California 10: Michael Eggman(D) defeats incumbent Jeff Denham(R)
California 21: Emilio Huerta(D) defeats incumbent David Valadao(R)
California 25: Bryan Caforio(D) defeats incumbent Steve Knight(R)
California 39: Brett Mourdock(D) defeats incumbent Ed Royce(R)
California 45: Ron Varasteh(D) defeats incumbent Mimi Walters(R)
California 48: Suzanne Savary(D) defeats incumbent Dana Rohrabacher(R)
California 49: Doug Apllegate(D) defeats incumbent Darrell Issa(R)
Colorado 3: Gail Schwartz(D) defeats incumbent Scott Tipton(R)
Colorado 6: Morgan Carroll(D) defeats incumbent Mike Coffman(R)
Florida 6: Bill McCullough(D) defeats incumbent Ron DeSantis(R)
Florida 15: Jim Lange(D) defeats incumbent Dennis Ross(R)
Florida 18: Randy Perkins(D) defeats incumbent Brian Mast(R)
Florida 26: Joe Garcia(D) defeats incumbent Carlos Curbelo(R)
Florida 27: Scott Fuhrman(D) defeats incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen(R)
Illinois 6: Amanda Howland(D) defeats incumbent Peter Roskam(R)
Illinois 12: C J Baricevic(D) defeats incumbent Mike Bost(R)
Illinois 14: Jim Walz(D) defeats incumbent Randy Hultgren(R)
Indiana 9: Shelli Yoder(D) defeats Trey Hollingsworth(R)
Iowa 1: Monica Vernon(D) defeats incumbent Rod Blum(R)
Iowa 3: Jim Mowrer(D) defeats incumbent David Young(R)
Kansas 3: Jay Sidie(D) defeats incumbent Kevin Yoder(R)
Maine 2: Emily Cain(D) defeats incumbent Bruce Poliquin(R)
Michigan 1: Lon Johnson(D) defeats Jack Bergman(R)
Michigan 8: Suzanna Shrekli(D) defeats incumbent Mike Bishop(R)
Michigan 11: Anil Kumar(D) defeats incumbent Dave Trott(R)
Minnesota 2: Angie Craig(D) defeats Jason Lewis(R)
Minnesota 3: Terri Bonoff(D) defeats incumbent Erik Paulsen(R)
Montana at-large: Denise Juneau(D) defeats incumbent Ryan Zinke(R)
Nebraska 2: Incumbent Brad Ashford(D) defeats Don Bacon(R)
New Jersey 7: Peter Jacob(D) defeats incumbent Leonard Lance(R)
New York 1: Anna Throne-Holst(D) defeats incumbent Lee Zeldin(R)
New York 19: Zephyr Teachout(D) defeats John Faso(R)
New York 22: Kim Myers(D) defeats Claudia Tenney(R)
New York 23: John Plumb(D) defeats incumbent Tom Reed(R)
North Carolina 2: John McNeil(D) defeats George Holding(R)
North Carolina 5: Josh Brannon(D) defeats incumbent Virginia Foxx(R)
North Carolina 6: Pete Glidewell(D) defeats incumbent Mark Walker(R)
North Carolina 8: Thomas Mills(D) defeats incumbent Richard Hudson(R)
North Carolina 13: Bruce Davis(D) defeats Ted Budd(R)
Ohio 1: Michele Young(D) defeats incumbent Steve Chabot(R)
Pennsylvania 6: Mike Parrish(D) defeats incumbent Ryan Costello(R)
Pennsylvania 7: Mary Ellen Balchunis(D) defeats incumbent Pat Meehan(R)
Pennsylvania 8: Steve Santarsiero(D) defeats Brian Fitzpatrick(R)
Pennsylvania 16: Christina Hartman(D) defeats Lloyd Smucker(R)
Texas 7: James Cargas(D) defeats incumbent John Culberson(R)
Texas 22: Mark Gibson(D) defeats incumbent Pete Olson(R)
Texas 23: Pete Gallego(D) defeats incumbent Will Hurd(R)
Texas 24: Jan McDowell(D) defeats incumbent Kenny Marchant(R)
Utah 4: Doug Owens(D) defeats incumbent Mia Love(R)
Virginia 5: Jane Dittmar(D) defeats Thomas Garrett Jr(R)
Virginia 7: Eileen Bedell(D) defeats incumbent Dave Brat(R)
Virginia 10: LuAnn Bennett(D) defeats incumbent Barbara Comstock(R)
West Virginia 2: Mark Hunt(D) defeats incumbent Alex Mooney(R)

[1] Plus and minus 58 seats from the OTL results and current tally

[Pericles]

That tax reform bump, am I right? Lol

[Pericles]

Don’t want to be a buzzkill, but Didier is a Republican — it was an R vs. R general.

Other than that... gahdayum. If the maps were even close to fair, we would be gaining an even more insanely high number of seats.

Yep. Going off the 2010 House swingometer if Republicans lost the popular vote by 18% that year they would have 151 seats to 284 Democrats. So you can say gerrymadering saved Republicans 32 seats though it's very rough and of course in some instances gerrymandering could backfire and end up costing Republicans seats once you get a wave like that.

[Pericles]

I applied the CNN poll(the margin) to the 2016 House races. It's a 19% swing(Republicans won the House popular vote by 1% in 2016).
2016 House elections
Nancy Pelosi-Democratic: 252+64 57.5%[1]
Paul Ryan-Republican: 183-64 39.6%
435 seats
218 for majority

Alabama 2: Nathan Mathis(D) defeats incumbent Martha Roby(R)
Alaska at-large: Steve Lindbeck(D) defeats incumbent Don Young(R)
Arizona 2: Matt Heinz(D) defeats incumbent Martha McSally(R)
California 1: Jim Reed(D) defeats incumbent Doug LaMalfa(R)
California 10: Michael Eggman(D) defeats incumbent Jeff Denham(R)
California 21: Emilio Huerta(D) defeats incumbent David Valadao(R)
California 25: Bryan Caforio(D) defeats incumbent Steve Knight(R)
California 39: Brett Mourdock(D) defeats incumbent Ed Royce(R)
California 45: Ron Varasteh(D) defeats incumbent Mimi Walters(R)
California 48: Suzanne Savary(D) defeats incumbent Dana Rohrabacher(R)
California 49: Doug Apllegate(D) defeats incumbent Darrell Issa(R)
Colorado 3: Gail Schwartz(D) defeats incumbent Scott Tipton(R)
Colorado 6: Morgan Carroll(D) defeats incumbent Mike Coffman(R)
Florida 6: Bill McCullough(D) defeats incumbent Ron DeSantis(R)
Florida 15: Jim Lange(D) defeats incumbent Dennis Ross(R)
Florida 18: Randy Perkins(D) defeats incumbent Brian Mast(R)
Florida 26: Joe Garcia(D) defeats incumbent Carlos Curbelo(R)
Florida 27: Scott Fuhrman(D) defeats incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen(R)
Illinois 6: Amanda Howland(D) defeats incumbent Peter Roskam(R)
Illinois 12: C J Baricevic(D) defeats incumbent Mike Bost(R)
Illinois 14: Jim Walz(D) defeats incumbent Randy Hultgren(R)
Indiana 9: Shelli Yoder(D) defeats Trey Hollingsworth(R)
Iowa 1: Monica Vernon(D) defeats incumbent Rod Blum(R)
Iowa 3: Jim Mowrer(D) defeats incumbent David Young(R)
Kansas 3: Jay Sidie(D) defeats incumbent Kevin Yoder(R)
Maine 2: Emily Cain(D) defeats incumbent Bruce Poliquin(R)
Michigan 1: Lon Johnson(D) defeats Jack Bergman(R)
Michigan 8: Suzanna Shrekli(D) defeats incumbent Mike Bishop(R)
Michigan 11: Anil Kumar(D) defeats incumbent Dave Trott(R)
Minnesota 2: Angie Craig(D) defeats Jason Lewis(R)
Minnesota 3: Terri Bonoff(D) defeats incumbent Erik Paulsen(R)
Montana at-large: Denise Juneau(D) defeats incumbent Ryan Zinke(R)
Nebraska 2: Incumbent Brad Ashford(D) defeats Don Bacon(R)
New Jersey 7: Peter Jacob(D) defeats incumbent Leonard Lance(R)
New York 1: Anna Throne-Holst(D) defeats incumbent Lee Zeldin(R)
New York 19: Zephyr Teachout(D) defeats John Faso(R)
New York 22: Kim Myers(D) defeats Claudia Tenney(R)
New York 23: John Plumb(D) defeats incumbent Tom Reed(R)
North Carolina 2: John McNeil(D) defeats George Holding(R)
North Carolina 5: Josh Brannon(D) defeats incumbent Virginia Foxx(R)
North Carolina 6: Pete Glidewell(D) defeats incumbent Mark Walker(R)
North Carolina 8: Thomas Mills(D) defeats incumbent Richard Hudson(R)
North Carolina 13: Bruce Davis(D) defeats Ted Budd(R)
Ohio 1: Michele Young(D) defeats incumbent Steve Chabot(R)
Pennsylvania 6: Mike Parrish(D) defeats incumbent Ryan Costello(R)
Pennsylvania 7: Mary Ellen Balchunis(D) defeats incumbent Pat Meehan(R)
Pennsylvania 8: Steve Santarsiero(D) defeats Brian Fitzpatrick(R)
Pennsylvania 16: Christina Hartman(D) defeats Lloyd Smucker(R)
Texas 7: James Cargas(D) defeats incumbent John Culberson(R)
Texas 22: Mark Gibson(D) defeats incumbent Pete Olson(R)
Texas 23: Pete Gallego(D) defeats incumbent Will Hurd(R)
Texas 24: Jan McDowell(D) defeats incumbent Kenny Marchant(R)
Utah 4: Doug Owens(D) defeats incumbent Mia Love(R)
Virginia 5: Jane Dittmar(D) defeats Thomas Garrett Jr(R)
Virginia 7: Eileen Bedell(D) defeats incumbent Dave Brat(R)
Virginia 10: LuAnn Bennett(D) defeats incumbent Barbara Comstock(R)
West Virginia 2: Mark Hunt(D) defeats incumbent Alex Mooney(R)

[1] Plus and minus 58 seats from the OTL results and current tally

You suppose uniform swing? Most likely it will not be so uniform, and if it will be lower in swing and Republican-leaning seats - gains, obviously, will be smaller.

I wouldn't say that this would be the 2018 result if Democrats won by 18 points, likely Democrats would do better since they're actually competing for the House this time and there are more open seats. However it is interesting to see and gives an idea of how it would go. I found that for 2016 Democrats need to win the House popular vote by I think 12% to gain the House, though hopefully in 2018 that will go down to around 7 or 8%.

[Pericles]

Democrat won 2012 and by more than they were supposed to. And Virginia and Alabama.

[Pericles]

The problem is given gerrymandering Democrats probably need to be winning by double digits or at least very high single digits. If Democrats win the popular vote by say 7.5% they probably fall short of winning the House.

[Pericles]

What struck me is how the presidential party almost always underperforms their generic ballot. And with Russia revelations and entitlement reform coming in 2018 that seems likely to replicate itself.

[Pericles]

I think this answers the dispute we were having before. In 1990 Democrats outperformed by 2.8%, as they led by 5% but went onto win by 7.8%. In 2002 Republicans led by 3.3% but went onto win by 4.8%, though that can plausibly be explained by a late increase in support due to the rush to war with Iraq, and even so the 1990 overperformance by the Democrats is greater. I think the pattern is a bit unclear but you should bet on the party out of power to overperform so not always the Republicans.

[Pericles]

[urlhttps://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tammy-baldwin-wisconsin_us_5a4bd21ce4b0b0e5a7a91159]Apparently Republicans have dumped more money against Baldwin than all other Senate Democrats combined? [/url]Why?

They must have been on Atlas too much.

[Pericles]

People say Democrats run bad campaigns, but in the Senate, Republicans have really shot themselves in the foot. They had Roy Moore, Ken Buck, Richard Mourdock, Sharron Angle, Christine O'Donnell, Todd Akin, so they should have at least 57 Senate seats(at least). But they only have 51.

[Pericles]

Democrats outperformed polls in 2011. And of course Virginia and Alabama.

[Pericles]

And often polling errors are the opposite to the expected polling error-Corbyn was supposedly overestimated by the polls, but was in fact underestimated, and people thought there'd be a pro-Clinton polling error.

[Pericles]

Bush had an approval rating in the high 30s approval rating prior to the 2006 midterms(http://news.gallup.com/poll/116500/presidential-approval-ratings-george-bush.aspx). Trump's current approval rating is basically at a similar level in the high 30s right now(https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html#!) And Presidents tend to get less popular in their second year, not more.

[Pericles]

Trump's base also may be less likely to turn out though(and minorities turned out in Alabama).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-could-be-the-year-of-the-angry-white-college-graduate/

[Pericles]

Trump's base also may be less likely to turn out though(and minorities turned out in Alabama).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-could-be-the-year-of-the-angry-white-college-graduate/

May be. But i don't think that Alabama is good example. Republicans will NOT have Roy Moore in every state. Most likely - they will not have even one "Roy Moore" among their candidates. He is unique. Only he could lose a Senate seat in Alabama for Republicans. Mad dog with "R" after name could win it.

Most Republicans wouldn't have won by around 30 points like Trump did, so even if they won by 20 or 15 points in a normal race that's still a 10-15 swing against them and would indicate a pro-Democrat environment.

[Pericles]

[Pericles]

Emerson, Jan 8-11, 600 RV

D 45
R 40

The last one of theirs I can find with generic ballot is from Feb, and was R 48, D 46.

Those numbers are rally bad for Democrats, they can’t flip the house with a 5 point lead.

They had Moore up by 9(and you had him up by 10). With an 11-point adjustment to the Dems the Dems actually lead by 13 points.

[Pericles]

Everyone who thinks that Democrats win by more than 5 points, should check their mental faculties

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2006
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

[Pericles]

SC-05: Archie Parnell (D) raised $340K since October, has $220K cash on hand

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/953340005077929984

Archie is great. He'll win, when he does I'll accept my accolades.

[Pericles]

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/17/16899932/special-elections-2018-results

[Pericles]

Democrats still lead by 11 points in the RCP average and 7.9% in 538. Their TAX REFORM BUMP is fading slightly and Trump got a holiday bump(plus Gallup's tracking poll being gone skewed the average) but Democrats are still in a great position to win in the midterms, as shown by the fundamentals, polls and actual results so far.

[Pericles]

Democrats still lead by 11 points in the RCP average and 7.9% in 538. Their TAX REFORM BUMP is fading slightly and Trump got a holiday bump(plus Gallup's tracking poll being gone skewed the average) but Democrats are still in a great position to win in the midterms, as shown by the fundamentals, polls and actual results so far.

False. Both Trump's approval rating and Republican's standing in the generic ballot has not stopped going up. There is no sign of "fading".

I was talking about Pelosi's tax reform bump fading. This is simply a return to the previous norm and a slight reduction in the Democrat lead. And Trump lost 1% of his approval rating last week, and Republicans are still stuck at 37-38% in the generic ballot(literally no change), there's just a few more undecideds. Really not much to see here.

[Pericles]

Democrats still lead by 11 points in the RCP average and 7.9% in 538. Their TAX REFORM BUMP is fading slightly and Trump got a holiday bump(plus Gallup's tracking poll being gone skewed the average) but Democrats are still in a great position to win in the midterms, as shown by the fundamentals, polls and actual results so far.

False. Both Trump's approval rating and Republican's standing in the generic ballot has not stopped going up. There is no sign of "fading".

I was talking about Pelosi's tax reform bump fading. This is simply a return to the previous norm and a slight reduction in the Democrat lead. And Trump lost 1% of his approval rating last week, and Republicans are still stuck at 37-38% in the generic ballot(literally no change), there's just a few more undecideds. Really not much to see here.

You can't say something about the so-called "Tax Reform Bump" fading and expect us to know you mean Pelosi and the Democrats...

It's a running joke I've being doing to mock LimoLiberal.