2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[ethanforamerica]

What are your thoughts on NE-2? Brad Ashford lost by a pretty narrow margin in 2016 and if there's a wave, NE-2 could be one of the first to go I think.

[Virginiá]

What are your thoughts on NE-2? Brad Ashford lost by a pretty narrow margin in 2016 and if there's a wave, NE-2 could be one of the first to go I think.

I wish someone else was running tbh, but with a general outlook on that district separate from the individual candidates, it should be more competitive under Trump than it was under Obama. My guess is that Bacon goes down and Republicans do not end up winning it back until at least 2022.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What are your thoughts on NE-2? Brad Ashford lost by a pretty narrow margin in 2016 and if there's a wave, NE-2 could be one of the first to go I think.

I wish someone else was running tbh, but with a general outlook on that district separate from the individual candidates, it should be more competitive under Trump than it was under Obama. My guess is that Bacon goes down and Republicans do not end up winning it back until at least 2022.

Sounds about right

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Bacon narrowly wins.

[ethanforamerica]

NH-1 is also one to watch. Chris Pappas is a top tier recruit. But the GOP has a couple of moderately strong candidates. If Guinta doesn’t run again, I’d give a tiny advantage to Dems. Pappas has resources, connections and name recognition. It could go either way though. It is R +2 though I think on the cook PVI

[Devout Centrist]

Devin Nunes won by a bigger margin than Steve King in 2016. It's gonna take a lot of work to even come close to ousting him.

Counterpoint: Devin Nunes was a relatively anonymous congressman in 2016.

Counterpoint to your counterpoint: On a national level yes, but he’s very well known and liked in CA-22 for his tough stance on water restrictions and advocacy for farmers during the drought.

[Brittain33]

I saw some tweet that apparently Randy Bryce "ironstache" has *spent* nearly $1m in Q4 2017, at least half on direct mail. Scam candidate.

[ethanforamerica]

Does Blanco have a chance at statewide office in LA again?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I saw some tweet that apparently Randy Bryce "ironstache" has *spent* nearly $1m in Q4 2017, at least half on direct mail. Scam candidate.

What do you mean by this? You do realize his campaign adviser is Kirsten Gillibrand's 2012 Senate campaign adviser. You know, the race where Gillibrand won every county in New York but one. (You can tell he has a great campaign adviser from his excellent videos and twitter account).

I don't think a high class campaign adviser would waste their time with a joke candidate, lol.

[BundouYMB]

I saw some tweet that apparently Randy Bryce "ironstache" has *spent* nearly $1m in Q4 2017, at least half on direct mail. Scam candidate.

What do you mean by this? You do realize his campaign adviser is Kirsten Gillibrand's 2012 Senate campaign adviser. You know, the race where Gillibrand won every county in New York but one. (You can tell he has a great campaign adviser from his excellent videos and twitter account).

I don't think a high class campaign adviser would waste their time with a joke candidate, lol.

Direct mail is an extremely inefficient type of fundraising that generally results in large amounts of money raised but also large amounts of money spent, because direct mail is extremely expensive. What this means is that his fundraising numbers are hugely inflated and he isn't raising nearly as much as he appears to be raising.

For example, if he spent 1 million on direct mail I would assume he raised like 1.05 million from that 1 million dollar expenditure (that's usually how direct mail is.) This means that money accomplished basically nothing other than making it look like he raised 1 million dollars more than he "really" did. I would generally say a candidate using direct mail is certainly a bad sign. That doesn't necessarily mean his candidacy is going to fail though. Obviously other factors matter.

Fun fact: the last congressional candidate I remember making use of direct mail was... Allen West!

Also, I'm not saying Bryce is doomed or anything, but a candidate isn't necessarily running a good campaign just because they have good YouTube videos.

[Young Conservative]

Does Blanco have a chance at statewide office in LA again?

0% chance. She was a horrible governor during Katrina.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I love Randy Bryce and his campaign, but I am starting to cringe as it is starting to get nationalized, and coastal elites and their cash are flocking in. Same went for Jones and is going for Lamb. And it is not necessarily their fault, a lot of it is shoved down their throat, and it is hard to say no. But at some point, good grief, you have to repel the Ellen's and Chelsea Handler's and the Daily Kos, and Samantha Bee, man I got keep the list going on and on, and say thanks, but no thanks. I am a man/woman of my state and district, and we are going to keep it local and about our people, this is our race, please stay out. This stupid nationalization screws us over so bad, just keep the money flowing, but just can it and do it as silently as possible, like in SC and KS earlier, except more $ obviously.

[Holmes]

I love Randy Bryce and his campaign, but I am starting to cringe as it is starting to get nationalized, and coastal elites and their cash are flocking in. Same went for Jones and is going for Lamb. And it is not necessarily their fault, a lot of it is shoved down their throat, and it is hard to say no. But at some point, good grief, you have to repel the Ellen's and Chelsea Handler's and the Daily Kos, and Samantha Bee, man I got keep the list going on and on, and say thanks, but no thanks. I am a man/woman of my state and district, and we are going to keep it local and about our people, this is our race, please stay out. This stupid nationalization screws us over so bad, just keep the money flowing, but just can it and do it as silently as possible, like in SC and KS earlier, except more $ obviously.

What the actual hell are you talking about? These candidates are actively soliciting this money. Bryce was literally encouraging people to donate $1.50 to him today because of Ryan's tweet.

Don't use a bad reason to excuse a "screw coastal elites" post.

[ethanforamerica]

Bryce's whole union worker but also national democratic leader thing is a little gimmicky. I still like him as a person and as a candidate, it's just how he's choosing to run his campaign.

[publicunofficial]

Does Blanco have a chance at statewide office in LA again?

0% chance. She was a horrible governor during Katrina.

She also has terminal cancer.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I love Randy Bryce and his campaign, but I am starting to cringe as it is starting to get nationalized, and coastal elites and their cash are flocking in. Same went for Jones and is going for Lamb. And it is not necessarily their fault, a lot of it is shoved down their throat, and it is hard to say no. But at some point, good grief, you have to repel the Ellen's and Chelsea Handler's and the Daily Kos, and Samantha Bee, man I got keep the list going on and on, and say thanks, but no thanks. I am a man/woman of my state and district, and we are going to keep it local and about our people, this is our race, please stay out. This stupid nationalization screws us over so bad, just keep the money flowing, but just can it and do it as silently as possible, like in SC and KS earlier, except more $ obviously.

What the actual hell are you talking about? These candidates are actively soliciting this money. Bryce was literally encouraging people to donate $1.50 to him today because of Ryan's tweet.

Don't use a bad reason to excuse a "screw coastal elites" post.

Nice try, but these races are getting nationalized, and obnoxious outsider elite celebs and big gov people are being brought in for many races.

Um, all the optics need to be like these:



Outsiders nationalizing races, yuck!

[Holmes]

I... have no idea what you're talking about! Bryce constantly rags on Ryan as a Trump stooge. He's "nationalizing" he race himself! Like do you want a medal because you hate people who live in coastal states? Congratulations.

[publicunofficial]

Also I think nationalizing the race is somewhat okay when you're running against the 2nd or 3rd most powerful man in the nation.

I... have no idea what you're talking about! Bryce constantly rags on Ryan as a Trump stooge. He's "nationalizing" he race himself! Like do you want a medal because you hate people who live in coastal states? Congratulations.

I would've thought people would stop trying to have a legit argument with Bagel, the guy who thinks running a racist white Democrat in the South is a winning strategy.

Pretty sure if Bagel23 could choose, he'd run a racist white Democrat in every district.

[Sestak]

I love Randy Bryce and his campaign, but I am starting to cringe as it is starting to get nationalized, and coastal elites and their cash are flocking in. Same went for Jones and is going for Lamb. And it is not necessarily their fault, a lot of it is shoved down their throat, and it is hard to say no. But at some point, good grief, you have to repel the Ellen's and Chelsea Handler's and the Daily Kos, and Samantha Bee, man I got keep the list going on and on, and say thanks, but no thanks. I am a man/woman of my state and district, and we are going to keep it local and about our people, this is our race, please stay out. This stupid nationalization screws us over so bad, just keep the money flowing, but just can it and do it as silently as possible, like in SC and KS earlier, except more $ obviously.

Bolded = people Bagel likes and thinks should be in the forefront of politics
Underlined = people Bagel doesn't like and thinks should stay away from the forefront of politics.

Notice anything?

[smoltchanov]

Also I think nationalizing the race is somewhat okay when you're running against the 2nd or 3rd most powerful man in the nation.

I... have no idea what you're talking about! Bryce constantly rags on Ryan as a Trump stooge. He's "nationalizing" he race himself! Like do you want a medal because you hate people who live in coastal states? Congratulations.

I would've thought people would stop trying to have a legit argument with Bagel, the guy who thinks running a racist white Democrat in the South is a winning strategy.

Pretty sure if Bagel23 could choose, he'd run a racist white Democrat in every district.

You would run a quasi-communist in every district. How better are you then him?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I... have no idea what you're talking about! Bryce constantly rags on Ryan as a Trump stooge. He's "nationalizing" he race himself! Like do you want a medal because you hate people who live in coastal states? Congratulations.

So do many of the undecided voters in these types of districts.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Also I think nationalizing the race is somewhat okay when you're running against the 2nd or 3rd most powerful man in the nation.

I... have no idea what you're talking about! Bryce constantly rags on Ryan as a Trump stooge. He's "nationalizing" he race himself! Like do you want a medal because you hate people who live in coastal states? Congratulations.

I would've thought people would stop trying to have a legit argument with Bagel, the guy who thinks running a racist white Democrat in the South is a winning strategy.

Pretty sure if Bagel23 could choose, he'd run a racist white Democrat in every district.

Wrong, just in districts and places where it would be beneficial, which is the vast minority of places. If I had to throw around a number, I would say only 5-10% of places would I want this.

[smoltchanov]

Also I think nationalizing the race is somewhat okay when you're running against the 2nd or 3rd most powerful man in the nation.

I... have no idea what you're talking about! Bryce constantly rags on Ryan as a Trump stooge. He's "nationalizing" he race himself! Like do you want a medal because you hate people who live in coastal states? Congratulations.

I would've thought people would stop trying to have a legit argument with Bagel, the guy who thinks running a racist white Democrat in the South is a winning strategy.

Pretty sure if Bagel23 could choose, he'd run a racist white Democrat in every district.

Wrong, just in districts and places where it would be beneficial, which is the vast minority of places. If I had to throw around a number, I would say only 5-10% of places would I want this.

Fully support.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Also I think nationalizing the race is somewhat okay when you're running against the 2nd or 3rd most powerful man in the nation.

I... have no idea what you're talking about! Bryce constantly rags on Ryan as a Trump stooge. He's "nationalizing" he race himself! Like do you want a medal because you hate people who live in coastal states? Congratulations.

I would've thought people would stop trying to have a legit argument with Bagel, the guy who thinks running a racist white Democrat in the South is a winning strategy.

Pretty sure if Bagel23 could choose, he'd run a racist white Democrat in every district.

Wrong, just in districts and places where it would be beneficial, which is the vast minority of places. If I had to throw around a number, I would say only 5-10% of places would I want this.

Fully support.

The death knell for any legitimacy Bagel could hope to have in this argument.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I love Randy Bryce and his campaign, but I am starting to cringe as it is starting to get nationalized, and coastal elites and their cash are flocking in. Same went for Jones and is going for Lamb. And it is not necessarily their fault, a lot of it is shoved down their throat, and it is hard to say no. But at some point, good grief, you have to repel the Ellen's and Chelsea Handler's and the Daily Kos, and Samantha Bee, man I got keep the list going on and on, and say thanks, but no thanks. I am a man/woman of my state and district, and we are going to keep it local and about our people, this is our race, please stay out. This stupid nationalization screws us over so bad, just keep the money flowing, but just can it and do it as silently as possible, like in SC and KS earlier, except more $ obviously.

Bolded = people Bagel likes and thinks should be in the forefront of politics
Underlined = people Bagel doesn't like and thinks should stay away from the forefront of politics.

Notice anything?

Yes, I notice hard working, ethical, solid, human beings, versus out of of state, out of touch, heck, some with even other citizenships, hollywood type, obnoxious, tv celeb elites. If I look at it a little deeper and from your angle, I can see your attempted smear of painting me as wanting men in politics over women, simply false. If you would look at my sig, you would see that I support people of all different, shapes, sizes, colors, backgrounds, orientation, religion, culture, region, geography, etc. In fact, nearly half of my big endorsements are to minorities of some kind whether it be religion, race, orientation, gender, etc. Stop with the smears.