2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats slipping farther in the generic ballot every day. Newest morning consult has D+3, Yougov D+6. I.e., not a wave.

*Ignores fundraising numbers, special elections, GOP resignations, human capital of dem nominees, presidential approval, etc. Not to mention that Morning Consult has always been R friendly and YouGov not being the most reliable pollster.

Just because a pollster is R friendly doesn't mean one should ignore its trends over time. MC was 41-55 Dec 14-18. Now its 45-50. Big shift.

And Quinnipac showed the Democrats expanding their lead to 17 points.

But his point is valid that regardless of a specific pollster's lean to one side or the other, watching it for trends is a useful data point.  It's even more useful to look at the overall polling average and its trends.  It's clear that both Trump and the generic ballot R have improved in recent weeks.  Does this mean their numbers are great?  No.  Are these the only factors to look at?  No; you listed several other important ones.  Are the Republicans still likely to lose in November?  Probably.

The worst thing to do is to automatically assume that whatever trend is in progress will continue unabated.  If Trump improves 1% a week, he'd be at 80% by the midterms.  If he lost 1% a week, as he was a few weeks ago, he'd be in negative numbers by then.   Neither of those is going to happen.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats still lead by 11 points in the RCP average and 7.9% in 538. Their TAX REFORM BUMP is fading slightly and Trump got a holiday bump(plus Gallup's tracking poll being gone skewed the average) but Democrats are still in a great position to win in the midterms, as shown by the fundamentals, polls and actual results so far.

False. Both Trump's approval rating and Republican's standing in the generic ballot has not stopped going up. There is no sign of "fading".

Senator-elect Patty Schachtner would disagree.... also those D +20 swings don't help your case.

[Pericles]

Democrats still lead by 11 points in the RCP average and 7.9% in 538. Their TAX REFORM BUMP is fading slightly and Trump got a holiday bump(plus Gallup's tracking poll being gone skewed the average) but Democrats are still in a great position to win in the midterms, as shown by the fundamentals, polls and actual results so far.

False. Both Trump's approval rating and Republican's standing in the generic ballot has not stopped going up. There is no sign of "fading".

I was talking about Pelosi's tax reform bump fading. This is simply a return to the previous norm and a slight reduction in the Democrat lead. And Trump lost 1% of his approval rating last week, and Republicans are still stuck at 37-38% in the generic ballot(literally no change), there's just a few more undecideds. Really not much to see here.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats still lead by 11 points in the RCP average and 7.9% in 538. Their TAX REFORM BUMP is fading slightly and Trump got a holiday bump(plus Gallup's tracking poll being gone skewed the average) but Democrats are still in a great position to win in the midterms, as shown by the fundamentals, polls and actual results so far.

False. Both Trump's approval rating and Republican's standing in the generic ballot has not stopped going up. There is no sign of "fading".

I was talking about Pelosi's tax reform bump fading. This is simply a return to the previous norm and a slight reduction in the Democrat lead. And Trump lost 1% of his approval rating last week, and Republicans are still stuck at 37-38% in the generic ballot(literally no change), there's just a few more undecideds. Really not much to see here.

You can't say something about the so-called "Tax Reform Bump" fading and expect us to know you mean Pelosi and the Democrats...

[Brittain33]

Democrats slipping farther in the generic ballot every day. Newest morning consult has D+3, Yougov D+6. I.e., not a wave.

Some past Morning Consult results (I'm cherry picking the most R friendly, but they show the outlierness of the poll)

Dec. 1-2  D+2
Nov. 2-6  R+1
Sep. 29-Oct. 1 D+2

They have a LOT of polls of Dems up mid-single-digits. Morning Consult is showing, at best, a slight swing of a couple of points.

[Pericles]

Democrats still lead by 11 points in the RCP average and 7.9% in 538. Their TAX REFORM BUMP is fading slightly and Trump got a holiday bump(plus Gallup's tracking poll being gone skewed the average) but Democrats are still in a great position to win in the midterms, as shown by the fundamentals, polls and actual results so far.

False. Both Trump's approval rating and Republican's standing in the generic ballot has not stopped going up. There is no sign of "fading".

I was talking about Pelosi's tax reform bump fading. This is simply a return to the previous norm and a slight reduction in the Democrat lead. And Trump lost 1% of his approval rating last week, and Republicans are still stuck at 37-38% in the generic ballot(literally no change), there's just a few more undecideds. Really not much to see here.

You can't say something about the so-called "Tax Reform Bump" fading and expect us to know you mean Pelosi and the Democrats...

It's a running joke I've being doing to mock LimoLiberal.

[Blackacre]

Okay guys.

As you know, I am not a concern troll. I've been very bullish on D midterm chances since Trump won the 2016 election. So please, take what I'm about to say as genuine worry and not as trolling, because I am also a pants-wetting liberal.

Trump's approval is at its highest point since May, per 538. Despite the news cycle not being very friendly to him these past few weeks at all. Tax reform bump should have faded by now, same with the holiday bump. Our lead in the GCB average has gone down below 8 percent, per 538. That might not be enough to take back the House, let alone produce the tsunami we want. And the trend lines look awful for us. There's no reasonable explanation for this, like when his approvals went up a few ticks because he was out of the public eye playing golf or on foreign trips. If this continues, November might not be as good as I've thought.

What I'm saying is, please, Atlasians who are still bullish about Ds in 2018, convince me that I shouldn't worry. I am on my knees begging right now, please talk me down from this unhealthy pants-wetting-liberal state of mind.

edit: Yes the Wisconsin special election is a positive sign but my irrational mind isn't satisfied with just that as evidence against me worrying

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Okay guys.

As you know, I am not a concern troll. I've been very bullish on D midterm chances since Trump won the 2016 election. So please, take what I'm about to say as genuine worry and not as trolling, because I am also a pants-wetting liberal.

Trump's approval is at its highest point since May, per 538. Despite the news cycle not being very friendly to him these past few weeks at all. Tax reform bump should have faded by now, same with the holiday bump. Our lead in the GCB average has gone down below 8 percent, per 538. That might not be enough to take back the House, let alone produce the tsunami we want. And the trend lines look awful for us. There's no reasonable explanation for this, like when his approvals went up a few ticks because he was out of the public eye playing golf or on foreign trips. If this continues, November might not be as good as I've thought.

What I'm saying is, please, Atlasians who are still bullish about Ds in 2018, convince me that I shouldn't worry. I am on my knees begging right now, please talk me down from this unhealthy pants-wetting-liberal state of mind.

I'm getting really tired of all of the concern trolling. Not even FOX NEWS is bragging about the the averages going down.

How about the fact the president's party loses, on average, 30 or more seats in midterms? Or that the Democrats are in a better position now than the GOP was in 2010? Or that the swings in these special elections are causing Republicans to piss themselves? Chill out.

[Brittain33]

Oh, I think the generic congressional ballot may well have tightened.

However, "trends" are meaningless. I don't think you can extrapolate out from here. The numbers could easily go back out again or stagnate as tighten up further. Because Trump isn't going to change, I expect the risk is things get worse for him.

Fivethirtyeight is showing a much bigger move from D to undecided then an uptick in R.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Looks like there's a democratic surge in the making: McLaugh & Associates went from D+1 in mid December to D+3 in January. If this keeps up, democrats will win by 23 come November.

[Virginiá]

Oh, I think the generic congressional ballot may well have tightened.

However, "trends" are meaningless. I don't think you can extrapolate out from here. The numbers could easily go back out again or stagnate as tighten up further. Because Trump isn't going to change, I expect the risk is things get worse for him.

Fivethirtyeight is showing a much bigger move from D to undecided then an uptick in R.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

To add to this, I think it's a bit unrealistic to expect the polls to never tighten for Democrats after the December surge to +13 / +14 territory. I hardly expected the trend to surge to +13 and then stay there for all of 2018. The most likely result is that it oscillates over a period of months. I don't expect things to ultimately be better for Republicans in November, but that doesn't mean the polls can't swing back and forth in between then.

Also, if I remember correctly, Atlas was predicting a wave before this surge to low-mid double digits in December, and so if the average moves back to where it was before then, shouldn't that stand? Why should there be an assumption that a positive trend will continue for them? In this kind of environment, under someone as volatile, unpopular and undisciplined as Trump, that kind of prediction should be considered unlikely until proven possible.

[Doimper]

Jesus, people, it's ten months to the election. Were Republicans crapping themselves in 2010, when Democrats were getting leads in some reputable generic ballot polls as late as September?

We just saw, what, a 30+ point swing in deep Wisconsin? 2018 is going to be good to us.

[john cage bubblegum]

Okay guys.

As you know, I am not a concern troll. I've been very bullish on D midterm chances since Trump won the 2016 election. So please, take what I'm about to say as genuine worry and not as trolling, because I am also a pants-wetting liberal.

Trump's approval is at its highest point since May, per 538. Despite the news cycle not being very friendly to him these past few weeks at all. Tax reform bump should have faded by now, same with the holiday bump. Our lead in the GCB average has gone down below 8 percent, per 538. That might not be enough to take back the House, let alone produce the tsunami we want. And the trend lines look awful for us. There's no reasonable explanation for this, like when his approvals went up a few ticks because he was out of the public eye playing golf or on foreign trips. If this continues, November might not be as good as I've thought.

What I'm saying is, please, Atlasians who are still bullish about Ds in 2018, convince me that I shouldn't worry. I am on my knees begging right now, please talk me down from this unhealthy pants-wetting-liberal state of mind.

edit: Yes the Wisconsin special election is a positive sign but my irrational mind isn't satisfied with just that as evidence against me worrying

Because watching for 2-4% "surges" this far out from the election like LimoLiberal is pointless.  What's important is to look at the national environment as a whole - factors like special election results, the president's long term approval rating, retirements, fundraising, recruitment.  The evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of a very strong Dem midterm.  For whatever reason, Trump's approval and and the Repubs' standing in the GCB has recovered a few points from its December nadir, but the national environment hasn't really changed much overall.

Now, a favorable national environment could still have a range of outcomes from something like a modest 15-20 seat House pickup to a massive wave election.  We just don't know yet.  But unless you see Trump continuing to gain in approval until he hits 50%, I wouldn't worry.  Given the extremely high number of people who strongly disapprove of Trump, I just don't see that happening. 

[Blackacre]

Okay guys.

As you know, I am not a concern troll. I've been very bullish on D midterm chances since Trump won the 2016 election. So please, take what I'm about to say as genuine worry and not as trolling, because I am also a pants-wetting liberal.

Trump's approval is at its highest point since May, per 538. Despite the news cycle not being very friendly to him these past few weeks at all. Tax reform bump should have faded by now, same with the holiday bump. Our lead in the GCB average has gone down below 8 percent, per 538. That might not be enough to take back the House, let alone produce the tsunami we want. And the trend lines look awful for us. There's no reasonable explanation for this, like when his approvals went up a few ticks because he was out of the public eye playing golf or on foreign trips. If this continues, November might not be as good as I've thought.

What I'm saying is, please, Atlasians who are still bullish about Ds in 2018, convince me that I shouldn't worry. I am on my knees begging right now, please talk me down from this unhealthy pants-wetting-liberal state of mind.

edit: Yes the Wisconsin special election is a positive sign but my irrational mind isn't satisfied with just that as evidence against me worrying

Because watching for 2-4% "surges" this far out from the election like LimoLiberal is pointless.  What's important is to look at the national environment as a whole - factors like special election results, the president's long term approval rating, retirements, fundraising, recruitment.  The evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of a very strong Dem midterm.  For whatever reason, Trump's approval and and the Repubs' standing in the GCB has recovered a few points from its December nadir, but the national environment hasn't really changed much overall.

Now, a favorable national environment could still have a range of outcomes from something like a modest 15-20 seat House pickup to a massive wave election.  We just don't know yet.  But unless you see Trump continuing to gain in approval until he hits 50%, I wouldn't worry.  Given the extremely high number of people who strongly disapprove of Trump, I just don't see that happening. 

Thanks. Sometimes I get so wrapped up in short-term fluctuations that I fail to see the big picture. Sorry about that.

[Dr. Arch]

Jesus, people, it's ten months to the election. Were Republicans crapping themselves in 2010, when Democrats were getting leads in some reputable generic ballot polls as late as September?

We just saw, what, a 30+ point swing in deep Wisconsin? 2018 is going to be good to us.

This

[Devout Centrist]

*Democrat wins Alabama Senate Race, elections show huge shift towards Democrats, Substantial lead in every generic ballot, Trump 15 points underwater*

"Meh, we're still a ways out"

*Morning Consult: D+3*

"Well time to go shoot myself"

[KingSweden]

LimoLiberal: I would advise you to take some time away from Atlas. This hyperventilating about every poll 10 months before an election is not healthy.

[Blackacre]

*Democrat wins Alabama Senate Race, elections show huge shift towards Democrats, Substantial lead in every generic ballot, Trump 15 points underwater*

"Meh, we're still a ways out"

*Morning Consult: D+3*

"Well time to go shoot myself"

I don't know how much of this is my personality, how much is my (mild) anxiety disorder, and how much of it is my memory of 2016, when I was VERY worried, was convinced to calm down, and then Trump won. Or that the last time we won a midterm was when I was 10.

[IceSpear]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/01/15/bill-nelson-raised-2-4-million-in-last-quarter-campaign-says/

On a related note, I found out today that Cornregard Southron Buttermilk McGillicuddy XXV is now a lobbyist for Viktor Orban. Wonder who Rubio would've sold out to if Crist beat him - Erdogan?

Hahahaha.

[IceSpear]

*Democrat wins Alabama Senate Race, elections show huge shift towards Democrats, Substantial lead in every generic ballot, Trump 15 points underwater*

"Meh, we're still a ways out"

*Morning Consult: D+3*

"Well time to go shoot myself"

Some people on this forum seriously need psychiatric treatment. The last few pages of this thread have been painful to read.

Even if Republicans are surging in the polls, WHO CARES? It could easily go back and forth a dozen more times by November.

[Virginiá]

I don't know how much of this is my personality, how much is my (mild) anxiety disorder, and how much of it is my memory of 2016, when I was VERY worried, was convinced to calm down, and then Trump won. Or that the last time we won a midterm was when I was 10.

Speaking quite frankly here, I believed 2016 had potential to be a decent-sized blowout (by modern standards) just based on Trump alone, and if the election had been held when certain scandals/drama hit, like the AH tape or the Khan stuff, that might have happened, but when you look at all the other characteristics of a wave, they just weren't there in 2016. No enthusiasm advantage. Shabby recruitment. Generic polls that barely held at mid-single digits and only very briefly spiked to low double digits at the peak of a new Trump scandal, only to recede quickly. And most of all, with a Democrat in the White House for the past 8 years, that still meant the party would pay a penalty as they usually do. Most of the signs indicated a closer election than many of us thought, and I like many others chose to ignore that because I believed Trump was just too bad of a person for America to vote in.

Contrast to 2018, with a deeply unpopular Republican president who has caused arguably the biggest surge of activism on the left in a generation or two, a massive, unprecedented surge in Democratic candidates running, huge fundraising spikes, a big enthusiasm advantage and consistently strong generic polls that often veer into double digit territory, there is every reason to believe that 2018 will be a wave year. This is all on top of 538 showing that generic polls a year out are often predictive of the final result, and more often than not, it skews even more in favor of the party that doesn't control the White House.

Even after being more cautious due to 2016's shock result, I find it impossible not to be bullish for the Democratic Party's chances in 2018. I don't care if we backslide for a couple months here and there. I'm sure that, as Trump being who he is, Democrats will surge back eventually. Trump is simply too polarizing and too offensive to do what he needs to do to actually maintain a 45-50% approval. IMO, he's probably destined to stay at <40% for most of his presidency.

[LimoLiberal]

I don't know how much of this is my personality, how much is my (mild) anxiety disorder, and how much of it is my memory of 2016, when I was VERY worried, was convinced to calm down, and then Trump won. Or that the last time we won a midterm was when I was 10.

Speaking quite frankly here, I believed 2016 had potential to be a decent-sized blowout (by modern standards) just based on Trump alone, and if the election had been held when certain scandals/drama hit, like the AH tape or the Khan stuff, that might have happened, but when you look at all the other characteristics of a wave, they just weren't there in 2016. No enthusiasm advantage. Shabby recruitment. Generic polls that barely held at mid-single digits and only very briefly spiked to low double digits at the peak of a new Trump scandal, only to recede quickly. And most of all, with a Democrat in the White House for the past 8 years, that still meant the party would pay a penalty as they usually do. Most of the signs indicated a closer election than many of us thought, and I like many others chose to ignore that because I believed Trump was just too bad of a person for America to vote in.

Contrast to 2018, with a deeply unpopular Republican president who has caused arguably the biggest surge of activism on the left in a generation or two, a massive, unprecedented surge in Democratic candidates running, huge fundraising spikes, a big enthusiasm advantage and consistently strong generic polls that often veer into double digit territory, there is every reason to believe that 2018 will be a wave year. This is all on top of 538 showing that generic polls a year out are often predictive of the final result, and more often than not, it skews even more in favor of the party that doesn't control the White House.

Even after being more cautious due to 2016's shock result, I find it impossible not to be bullish for the Democratic Party's chances in 2018. I don't care if we backslide for a couple months here and there. I'm sure that, as Trump being who he is, Democrats will surge back eventually. Trump is simply too polarizing and too offensive to do what he needs to do to actually maintain a 45-50% approval. IMO, he's probably destined to stay at <40% for most of his presidency.

Well when you put it like this...

[King Lear]

It’s so obvious the Democratic generic ballot lead is collapsing, at this rate Republicans could have a 1-2 point generic ballot lead by November. The biggest problem for Democrats is that when the Dow Jones is hitting records every day (it’s going to be 30,000 by the midterms), and the GDP is growing at 3% every quarter people don’t feel compelled to throw the Incumbent party out of Congress.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It’s so obvious the Democratic generic ballot lead is collapsing, at this rate Republicans could have a 1-2 point generic ballot lead by November. The biggest problem for Democrats is that when the Dow Jones is hitting records every day (it’s going to be 30,000 by the midterms), and the GDP is growing at 3% every quarter people don’t feel compelled to throw the Incumbent party out of Congress.

Oh really? Tell that to Senator-elect Jarchow.

Seriously Lear, we are sick of this. Enough with your bullsh**t.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It’s so obvious the Democratic generic ballot lead is collapsing, at this rate Republicans could have a 1-2 point generic ballot lead by November. The biggest problem for Democrats is that when the Dow Jones is hitting records every day (it’s going to be 30,000 by the midterms), and the GDP is growing at 3% every quarter people don’t feel compelled to throw the Incumbent party out of Congress.

Oh really? Tell that to Senator-elect Jarchow.

Seriously Lear, we are sick of this. Enough with your bullsh**t.

The Ignore button is your friend.