Reuters primary polling: tracking thread. (user search)
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  Reuters primary polling: tracking thread. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Reuters primary polling: tracking thread.  (Read 48665 times)
weixiaobao
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« on: August 25, 2015, 05:18:33 AM »

For (8/17-8/21), a three way race
Trump 44.1%
Bush 28.6%
Carson 24.7%
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weixiaobao
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Posts: 711
« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2015, 04:42:15 PM »

We got the first Reuters poll after the debate.

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150915-20150922/collapsed/false

30.8 Trump
18.9 Carson
8.4 Bush
7.2 Fiorina*
5.5 Rubio
5.2 Cruz
4.0 Huckabee
2.6 Paul
2.6 Christie
2.5 Kasich
2.4 Walker

*Fiorina went up a lot since her 2 to 3% average pre debate.  Yesterday she is at 8.6% but going down, I guess the latest news affect voters.
*Rubio and Carson have increase since the debate also.
*Trump had peak to his highest (36.Cool and went down, but all happened during the transition meaning some days before and some days after the debate due to 5 days rolling.
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weixiaobao
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Posts: 711
« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2015, 08:10:41 AM »

Seems like Carson is "surging" thanks to his ignorant comments, Trump slipping.

I posted the percentage already.

But what you are saying is half true.  What is true is that he will rise in the poll or maintain his spot for his comment.  And that, the big gap (of 3%) between 9/21 and 9/22 does show that.

The half false is that do you know how Reuters work?  It is 5 days rolling.  His Muslim spotlight comment was on the 20th of September.  Prior to 9/22 poll #, he already heading up (from like 13% to 16%).  And for the 9/22 #, what that meant is that # is the data collected 9/18 to 9/22.  Presumably most people wouldn't know too much about the comment until the 21st.  So the latest % is collected with 3 days when people don't know about it, and 2 days of falling out media coverage after the event.

If you actually want to know the impact of the comment, you will have to wait until 9/25 poll #. 
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weixiaobao
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Posts: 711
« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2015, 08:46:13 AM »

GOP

Trump 30%
Carson 18%
Bush 10%
Fiorina 8%
Rubio 6%
Cruz 5%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 3%
Kasich 3%
Gilmore 2%
Paul 2%

Walker 2%
Jindal 1%
Santorum 1%
Graham, Pataki 0%

Paul is tied with Gilmore. That's gotta sting.

Not anymore.
http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150928-20150929/collapsed/false/chart/table
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weixiaobao
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Posts: 711
« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2015, 12:49:02 PM »

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151026-20151027/collapsed/false/chart/table

Average rolling (10/23-10/27)

Headline: Carson pull near Trump ahead of Debate

32.4 Trump
25.5 Carson

8.1 Bush
7.1 Rubio
4.9 Fiorina
4.5 Cruz
2.8 Paul
2.6 Christie
2.2 Kasich
2.2 Huckabee
0.9 Jindal
0.8 Pataki
0.5 Graham
0.4 Gilmore
0.1 Santorum

Headline: Clinton and Sanders gain after Biden bows out

53.7 Clinton
34.0 Sanders
01.7 O'Malley

Another poll show Carson surging.  I was correct when I said Trump was recovering and Carson is the one that surge.  On average it seemed, Carson is at an all time high from all of the polls and beyond what he got prior to his previous all time high pre second debate.
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weixiaobao
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Posts: 711
« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2015, 06:56:28 PM »

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151031-20151103/type/day

Carson dropped like 10 points in November.  Hmmm..
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weixiaobao
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Posts: 711
« Reply #6 on: December 07, 2015, 02:25:40 AM »

Reuters always seemed to favored Bush for some reason.
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