Japan 2016 - July 10

[jaichind]

Nikkei/TV poll. 

Support for cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe gained 3% from a month earlier to 56% to highest since Sept. 2014

Opposition to proposed April 2017 tax increase remained at 63%; support gained 3% to 32%

Favorable view of Abenomics rose 2% to 38%; unfavorable view fell 4% to 49%

Opposition to holding election for both houses of parliament fell 1% to 42%; support fell 3% to 38%

Favorable view of Abe performance at G-7 62%

Favorable view of Obama visit to Hiroshima 92%

[jaichind]

Kyodo poll

Abe Cabinet Approval Rating Rises 7% Points to 55.3

98% of respondents said they took U.S. president’s visit to Hiroshima as positive

70.9% of respondents said they support delaying sales-tax increase from April 2017

[jaichind]

This consumption tax increase is the gift that keeps giving for LDP.

Back in 2010 when DPJ PM Hatoyama stepped down and  Kan took over, the DPJ was set to win the 2010 Upper House elections.  Kan, who was Finance minister under Hatoyama came out saying that Japan need to raise the consumption tax.  This sunk DPJ's chances in 2010 and led to a narrow LDP-KP victory although a lot of DPJ votes went to YP and not really LDP-KP.  This led to gridlock for the DPJ government. 

Then in 2012 DPJ PM Noda insisted on pushing through a consumption tax increase which led to a split in the DPJ leading the the creation of PLP.  The tax increase plus the DPJ split sunk DPJ poll numbers and on top of it Noda had to bribe LDP to support this increase by promising an early election which DPJ was crushed.

Then in 2014 Abe sprung a surprise delay of this consumption tax increase  and called early Lower House elections which DPJ was unready to fight.  Despite some reasonable DPJ-JIP tactical alliances LDP-KP surged to a landslide victory.

Now in 2016 we will get another consumption tax increase and another possible early Lower House election for which DP might be more ready for but LDP-KP might still win a landslide victory due to the positive image of Abe's successful G7 Summit plus relief on the part of the voters at a delay of the consumption tax which is quite popular.

If I were DPJ/DP I wished I never heard of the term "Consumption tax increase"

[jaichind]

Do the Japanese literally have no other tax they can raise?

In theory there are other taxes.  But to try to fix up public finances  the consumption tax is the easiest to raise from a political resistance point of view.  The Ministry of Finance have used for years various IMF reports pointing out that Japan consumption tax rates are low by advanced Western standards as a way of putting pressure on the political class and the public overall for an increase in the consumption tax rate. 

[jaichind]

The same Kyodo poll had 77-13 for embattled Tokyo 舛添 要一(Masuzoe Yōichi) to resign.  Not sure how long he can hold on.

[jaichind]

Looks like Abe is determined to delay consumption tax but does not fell that this means a Lower House election.  Many in LDP are arguing against a delay while others argue that a delay should mean a Lower House election.

[jaichind]

Wait.  I just realized the man the police arrested for the rape and murder of the Okinawa woman Rina Shimabukuro



by an ex-US base employee and former marine Kenneth Franklin Shinzato



Is a black man.  

Given the prevalent views on racial hierarchy in Oriental cultures this is going to be a disaster for the LDP and pro-base bloc in the upcoming Okinawa prefecture elections.  The local LDP and almost certainly KP and ORA will most likely have to take a neutral if not anti-US base position to survive.  It is irrelevant that Shinzato is no longer a US base employee.  His race is what will make this very explosive.

Even the local US authorities realize how bad this is.  They pretty much decided to go into lockdown and have a curfew for all base employees.  It is irrelevant from a political and optics point of view that Shinzato is no longer a US base employee and for sure was not a US base employee when he allegedly committed this crime.   There are other factors in plan and the local US base authorizes knows this.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ugh. If the best chance for the opposition to do well in a given area is to tap into racist sentiment then I'd honestly rather the government win.

[jaichind]

Ugh. If the best chance for the opposition to do well in a given area is to tap into racist sentiment then I'd honestly rather the government win.

Well, the LDP is already working to inoculate themselves from the fallout.  First Abe was pretty harsh with Obama on this case and got Obama to spend some time to show public remorse over this incident.  I doubt the anti-base leftist opposition would openly talk about the alleged perpetrator's  race  mostly because it will backfire on them.  First it runs counter to their professed social democratic universal ideals and secondly it is just not polite in Japanese culture to say such things.  Even if they want to take advantage of this, and I am sure some of them would not mind at all from gaining political advantage, the best way is to say nothing other than continue to push an anti-base line and let the Okinawa LDP vote base stew on these facts in private and gain when they walk into the voting booth. 

[jaichind]

There is a danger in all this talk of consumption tax increase delay.  It is for sure popular so it should help LDP on the surface.  But once Abe goes through with it, Abe/LDP has to then face the fact that, in de facto terms, they have publicly admitted that Abenomicss failed.  In 2014 you can claim that Abenomics did not have a chance to take root so it is best to push back the tax increase.  Now it has been 4.5 years since Abenomics has been put in place.  To say that the economy is in danger of falling into the abyss if there is a consumption tax increase is really saying the policy has failed.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Finance Minister Taro Aso agreed to delay scheduled consumption tax increase to 10% from 8% to October 2019 from April without dissolving the Lower House, NHK reports, without attribution.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Probably for the best. Better a 2/3 Jiminto/Komeito majority than 3/4.

[jaichind]

Opposition deal reached in 佐賀(Saga) where DP candidate would run.  The local DP branch finally signed off on the deal with JCP.  Does not matter that much as LDP is going to win in a landslide there one way or another.  But now a nice clean map where there is opposition deals in every 1- seat districts.



青森(Aomori) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
岩手(Iwate) - PLP candidate -> solid PLP
宮城(Miyagi) - DP candidate -> tossup
秋田(Akita) - DP candidate -> lean LDP
山形(Yamagata) - center-left independent (former DPJ MP) -> tossup
福島(Fukushima) - DP candidate -> tossup/lean DP
栃木(Tochigi) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
群馬(Gunma) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
新潟(Niigata) - PLP candidate -> tossup
富山(Toyama)- center-left independent -> LDP landslide
石川(Ishikawa) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
福井(Fukui) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
山梨(Yamanashi) - DP candidate -> tossup
長野(Nagano) - DP candidate -> tossup/lean DP
岐阜(Gifu) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
三重(Mie) - DP candidate -> tossup/lean DP
滋賀(Shiga) - DP candidate -> tossup      (ORA running here could be a major factor)
奈良(Nara) - DP candidate -> solid LDP    (ORA running here could be make it closer)
和歌山(Wakayama) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide (ORA running here not relevant)
鳥取(Tottori/
島根(Shimane) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
岡山(Okayama) - DP candidate -> Solid LDP
山口(Yamaguchi) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
徳島(Tokushima)/
高知(Kōchi) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
香川(Kagawa) - JCP -> LDP landslide   (would be intresting to see JCP vote share given DP support)
愛媛(Ehime) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
佐賀(Saga) - DP candidate -> LDP landslide
長崎(Nagasaki) - DP candidate -> LDP landslide
熊本(Kumamoto) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
大分(Ōita) - DP candidate -> tossup
宮崎(Miyazaki) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
鹿児島(Kagoshima) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
沖縄(Okinawa) - OSMP candidate -> lean OSMP

At this point, if I had to guess I would say LDP wins 5 out of 6 tossups.  DP would only win 滋賀(Shiga)  although if ORA were to run a candidate it could mix this race up and make the result a lot more volatile.  Of course if LDP/Abe approval rating falls over the next month or two I would say opposition bloc sweeps the 6 tossups.

[jaichind]

The polls still look pretty sad for Tokyo Governor 舛添 要一(Masuzoe Yōichi)



97% Not convinced of his explanation and 79.2% want him to resign.  97% is pretty amazing.  To have 97% of polled not to believe you is hard to achieve.   

[jaichind]

DP-PLP-SDP-JCP submitted a motion of no confidence in Abe over the failure of Abenomics in light of soon to be announced delay of the consumption tax.  It is interesting to note that ORA MPs voted against the motion.  The motion was voted for by 124 MPs which is all DP-PLP-SDP-JCP MPs plus the 3 pro-DP independents.  It is also intresting that 4 pro-LDP independents abstained.  Anyway the orientation of the ORA has been clearly established even for issues outside of national security.   

[jaichind]

Probably for the best. Better a 2/3 Jiminto/Komeito majority than 3/4.

Well, the news being leaked out is that internal LDP surveys did not come up such a massive majority which is the reason why it seems that Abe/LDP decided not to go ahead with a double election.   The LDP leak said that LDP internal surveys before the Kumamoto earthquake was that LDP-KP would lose 40-50 seats in the Lower House if a double election was called.  After the Kumamoto earthquake LDP internal  projections still had LDP-KP losing around 20 seats.  As a result it seems like the call within the LDP is not to go for a double election.  Of course historically these LDP leaked surveys are often to play the role of lowering expectations.  Back in 2014 various LDP sources said that LDP-KP would win around 280 seats when in fact they ended up with 325.

The same LDP leaked source said that the current LDP internal survey projection of Upper House election results are LDP 58 KP 14 DP 31 JCP 10 ORA 5 SDP 1 PLP 1 OMSP 1 which is pretty close to my current projection of LDP 58 KP 14 DP 29 JCP 10 ORA 7 SDP 1 PLP 1 OMSP 1.  It seems LDP internal survey is more negative on ORA than I am.

[jaichind]

It seems that Ozawa camp up with a fairly sensible idea of a joint DP-SDP-PLP party list for the Upper House PR section.  Given the fact that the PLP vote base of 1.5% and SDP vote base of 2.5% both contains dangers of falling below the 2% threshold to get seats there is significant risk, especially for PLP, of a having wasted opposition votes.  The solution, which is obvious, is what Ozawa suggested, is to have a joint non-JCP opposition list.  SDP seems to back this idea.  The anti-Ozawa elements in DP seems hostile to the idea.  The DP leadership did seem to indicate that this is a good idea and will work to overcome internal opposition to this idea but did indicate that this might be difficult.   

[jaichind]

Abe announces delay of consumption tax increase by 2.5 years.  Also announces Upper House election date would be 7/10.

[jaichind]

Latest Okinawa poll does not look good for the pro-base/neutral bloc (which is LDP, KP, ORA-PGOR).  52.7% polled were for "total removal of all US marines Okinawa" versus 31.5% polled were for "slow reduction of US marines from Okinawa".  The anti-base mood is peaking to unprecedented levels.  The Anti-base bloc has always been more vocal but in local elections the pro-base/neutral bloc tends to come out ahead or at least tie in terms of vote share over the last 3 Okinawa prefecture elections.  This time it seems the anti-base bloc will win the vote share beating their all time high of 2008 Okinawa prefecture elections when the anti-base bloc tied the pro-base/neutral bloc in terms of vote share.  Given the fact that LDP, KP and ORA-PGOR are not coordinating their nomination strategy while the anti-base bloc of ORN-DP-OSMP-SDP-JCP are coordinating theirs it seems the anti-base bloc will win a majority if not a solid majority in the Okinawa prefecture elections coming this Sunday.

[jaichind]

It seems that under pressure of the rape/murder case in Okinawa which is pusihing the electorate in an anti-base direction, the ORA and KP have mostly moved over to an tilt anti-base position.   Now LDP is all alone in a somewhat pro-base position.  This might actually help LDP scoop up all the pro-base votes in Sunday.

ORN, the bloc which backs the anti-base  governor of Okinawa 翁長 雄志(Onaga Takeshi)  has renamed itself  オール沖縄 or All Okinawa or AO after merging in several groups like PNP, KP defectors, and some PGOR defectors that did not want to merge into ORA in order to take an more strict anti-base position.  This bloc is clearly growing as it has taken in some OSMP members as well.

For the 48 seats the number of candidates for each party/bloc (I include independents back by said party/bloc as well) are

LDP           22
ORA            3
ORA rebel    1
KP              3
DP              1
DP rebel      2  (one of the DP rebels is anti-base and one is neutral)
AO            18
SDP            8
OSMP         4
JCP             7

which means 22 pro-base candidates, 8 somewhat neutral/anti-base candidates (ORA, ORA rebel, KP, 1 DP rebel), and 39 anti-base candidates.

Back in 2012 with 48 seats the number of candidates were

LDP          23
JIP             2
PGOR         1
PNP           1
KP             5 (included one pro-KP independent that is clearly anti-base who now joined AO)
DPJ           3
ORN          9
SDP           9
OMSP        3
JCP           8

which means 23 pro-base candidates, 8 neutral candidates (JIP PGOR PNP and 4 KP), and 33 anti-base candidates (include 1 anti-base KP candidate)

It is clear that the anti-base bloc is nominating a lot more candidates relative to 2012 expecting a big night for them.  It could backfire on them if the anti-base vote share is not as high as expected.  It is also clear that within the anti-base camp the more radical parties like AO and JCP are getting stronger while the more moderates like DP and to some extent SDP are getting weaker within the bloc.  It has all the signs of the radicalization of the anti-base bloc.  
 

[jaichind]

Japanese politics and election website http://go2senkyo.com/  came out with their projection of Upper House elections which based on, I think is typical of, in my opinion, how not to look at polls



which is (they did their math wrong, if you read their write-up on each district their chart above over counts LDP by 1 seats and under-counts KP by 1 seat)

Party          District       PR        Total
LDP               44          20           64
KP                   7            8           15
DP                 15          10           25
ORA                 2           3             5
PLP                  1           0             1
OMSP              1            0             1

This chart has other mistakes such has having VOR (Vision of Reform) on the chart when VOR has already merged into DP.

Anyway, The main problem with their projection is the PR section.  These seat projections seems to imply, even after we give LDP and KP the lowest possible vote share to get these seats count, a vote share distribution of something like

LDP        37.5%
KP          14.5%
DP          20.0%
JCP         14.0%
ORA          6.0%
SDP          2.0%
PLP          1.5%
PJK          1.5%
AEJ          0.5%
NPR         0.5%
HRP         0.5%
Minors     0.5%

Which gives LDP-KP a PR vote share of 52% which I find extremely unlikely.  Even if that were true then there is no way that DP/PLP/OSMP would win 17 district seats, it would be at most 14 with DP/PLP barely winning 岩手(Iwate) and 沖縄(Okinawa) at and more likely not it will end up with 13 where DP/PLP could not hold Iwate.  Also such a vote share means that there is no way JCP wins a third district seat in 神奈川(Kanagawa).  

It seems this projection relies on local polls for the district seats but relies on party support polls to get the PR projection without understanding that these results have to correlated.  What this projection does is to point out that support for DP as a ratio of LDP/KP support in polls is even more in favor of LDP/KP than in the run-up to the 2013 Upper House elections

 

First that is not really true as many polls like NHK does not show such a relative advantage in 2016 over 2013 and even if it was the 2013 polls were totally off in projecting the PR seat count.  The way to read the polls is not the ratio of LDP/KP support relative to DP but to view LDP/KP support as their likely vote share since DP/ORA supporters are hidden when it comes to polls.  ORA especially has its support totally underestimated in the polls.  This is my opinion. We will see what happens in July 10th.

[jaichind]

Looks like ORA's streak of recruiting has-been former party leaders continues.  Now ORA will nominate the leader of the mostly defunct NPN 田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) in Tokyo.  Tanaka was the governor of 長野   (Nagano) and then during the 2005 Koizumi LDP postal rebellion formed NPN with the expressed purposes taking in LDP postal rebels so his party can emerge as a center-right opposition force that appeals to center-right anti-LDP urban voters.  NPN was an ally with DPJ in the 2005-2012 period and was mostly wiped out in the 2012 elections finishing NPN as a political force with Tanaka himself losing re-election in his seat.

Now ORA wants to absorb what is left of NPN and have Tanaka run as the ORA candidate in Tokyo.  Tanaka still have some residue support in urban tokyo which when added to the ORA base gives him a good shot winning one of the six seats.  It is clear that out of the 6 seats, LDP will win 1, KP will win 1, DP will win 1, and JCP will win 1.  The fifth seat should be won by LDP but since LDP did not nominate a second candidate yet there is some risk.  The battle for the last seat was suppose to be a 3 way fight between DP's second candidate, ORA's candidate, and AEJ leader and incumbent 松田公太(Matsuda Kōta).  ORA's nomination of  Tanaka will hurt center-right libertarian but anti-LDP Matsuda the most who is now finished and along with it any chance of AEJ to survive.  So now it will be a 3 way fight between LDP's still unnamed candidate, ORA's Tanaka and the DP's second candidate.   Until we know the identity of the LDP's candidate we have to assume that all 3 are evenly matched.  ORA has the risk of AEJ and PJK splitting its vote, DP has the risk of SDP candidate splitting its vote and LDP has the risk of late nomination and not having time to gel in a race where there is only one month left.  My gut feeling is that LDP and DP should have the upper hand over ORA with AEJ and PJK splitting its vote
being more harmful.

[jaichind]

Political commentary 野上忠興 (Nogami Tadaoki) of the magazine  Nikkan Gendai who tends to have an anti-LDP bias came out with his new projections for 2016 which paints a very negative picture for LDP




Which is

Party          District       PR        Total
LDP              33           15          48
KP                 6              7          13
ORA               3             3            6
DP               24            11         35
JCP                3              8         11
SDP               0              1          1
PLP                2              1          3
VPA               0              2          2
OSMP             1             0           1
Pro-DP ind      1             0           1

The table has 4 opposition independents  winning.  I know that they are 2 PLP, 1 OSMP, and 1 pro-DP independent so my version of the chart takes that into account.  VPA is 国民怒りの声 or Voice of Public Anger which is a bloc formed by anti-war activist 小林節 (Kobayashi Takashi) whose list will run on an anti-new security law platform.  This projection has VPA taking a lot of the DP PR vote and winning 2 PR seats on a surge in anti-LDP turnout

These projections has LDP-KP winning around 43% of the vote which is on the low side but not implausible.    He envisions a collapse of the LDP vote in the Northern prefectures including Hokkaido over TPP and loss of faith in the LDP over the economic situation.   At least his district projections are consistent with his vote share projections with the LDP losing all the marginal seats.  

I guess this projection would be something of a floor for the LDP if everything goes badly.  

[jaichind]

The relationship between the Japan Hawkish Right and Okinawa 翁長 雄志(Onaga Takeshi) is interesting and actually mirrors the relationship between the Chinese nationalist Right (of which I am a member of) and former KMT Chairman ROC President Lee Teng-Hui (李登輝).

Onaga was a long time LDP politician and have been part the LDP establishment for many years since the mid 1980s.  He was a LDP member of the Okinawa Prefecture and was the pro-LDP mayor of 那覇市 (Naha City) for several terms.  His political positions seems pretty consistent with the LDP mainstream.  Then in 2014 he broke from the LDP to run as the common candidate of the anti-base center-left opposition alliance (DPJ-SDP-PLP-JCP-OSMP-ORN) and defeated the LDP candidate by a wide margin.  Since then he has taken more radical and confrontational positions especially on the US base issue insisting that all US bases closes in Okinawa.  He became very confrontational with the LDP central government to the point where Onaga would speak at various international forums protesting against the LDP position on the US base.    His tone and rhetoric seems to imply an ever greater appeal to Okinawa regionalism with a goal of autonomy and perhaps implicit independence.

His career is similar to Lee who while having some pro-Japanese and then pro-CCP views in the youth (1940s) became part of the KMT establishment by the 1960s and eventually becoming the ROC Vice President and then President.  His positions while inside the KMT were very mainstream KMT which is mostly moderate Chinese nationalism.   This continued after he became ROC President before he started to take a more pro-Taiwan autonomy and then eventually pro-Taiwan Independence line.  After he left office he came out more openly for a pro-Taiwan regionalist identity and was vocal in support for Taiwan Independence and was expelled by the KMT.

I will now describe reason these two people are connected.  You see, Lee's turn became a source a great anger for Chinese nationalist like myself who felt that he betrayed the establishment he was part of and owed his privileged position and then to flip flop once he gets into power.  I of course share the same view and for sure have done my share of attacking Lee's position on the Taiwan identity and Independence issue.  One attack on various Chinese language political boards from my fellow extreme Right Chinese nationalists which I did not agree with is various attacks on Lee based on rumors of how  his mother was raped and or was the mistress of Japanese soldiers during the Japanese occupation of Taiwan Province in 1895-1945.   The net affect was to imply that Lee was a bastard and was of Japanese origin and that his political transformation is some sort of Japanese plot to move Taiwan Province from Chinese circles and unit with Japan.  My position is: Who cares?  I care about Lee's political positions not what his particular genetic makeup.  A person's identity and language is environmentally determined and not biologically determined.  But atlas  my objections fell on deaf ears.

Now the reason why all this is connected is that in various Japanese Hawk Right sites what one reads about Onaga is the same thing.  Now there are all sorts of rumors that Onaga's mother went to Shanghai in the late 1940s and was romantically involved with a top cadre of the CCP.  The implication is that Onaga is really generically Chinese and is part of some CCP plot to have Okinawa break away from Japan and then unify with the PRC.  I just thought it hilarious the parallel nature of these two conspiracy  theories.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Predicting a stark government underperformance in the North makes a great deal of sense but the other things that would be required for those figures to shake out unfortunately don't so much.

Speaking of the North, can anybody explain why Aomori appears to be markedly more Jiminto-friendly in general than the other Northern prefectures? In 2009 Jiminto held the Hirosaki-based, Hachinohe-based, and Shimokita-to-Towada constituencies despite getting blown out almost everywhere else north of Tokyo. I've spent a significant amount of time in Aomori, during a House of Councillors election, and I still don't understand this.

Conversely, I'm also wondering if there's any non-Ozawa reason why Iwate is such an opposition stronghold, or if it's really just Ozawa having the prefecture bought and paid for.