Japan 2016 - July 10

[jaichind]

This chart shows the 14 (it does not have 山形(Yamagata) but I expect it to be Green which means leans opposition in this chart) places where there are are opposition grand alliance deals so far.  It uses 2014 PR vote shares to estimate if LDP-KP or DP-PLP-SDP-JCP has the advantage.



It looks at the LDP+KP PR vote share in 2014 elections in each district and compare them to DPJ PLP SDP JCP and JIP vote shares in 2014 elections.

Blue means opposition advantage
Green means leans opposition
Orange means leans LDP-KP
Red means LDP-KP advantage

One quibble I would have with this chart is that for ruling bloc vote share they should really add in PFG PR vote share to LDP-KP as if ORA does not run a candidate (as it is unlikely to do in 1- seat districts outside Kinki) then the old PFG vote base will go LDP-KP.  So this chart most likely overestimates opposition chances, especially when we should expect the opposition with JCP will mean that part of the JIP vote to go to LDP-KP.

I would say Blue should mean slight opposition advantage, Green is tossup lean LDP, Orange and Red means LDP has it in the bag.

[Vega]

Has Abe completely mothballed the idea of a double dissolution? I know you posted that he did, but I saw some stories saying he's still considering it.

[jaichind]

Has Abe completely mothballed the idea of a double dissolution? I know you posted that he did, but I saw some stories saying he's still considering it.

Abe himself has ruled it out several times.  But various LDP sources still infer it from time to time.  The main reason why LDP still put out words about it is because the only legitimate excuse for another mid-term Lower House election would be another delay of the consumption tax rate increase from 8% to 10% just like in 2014.  The idea if another delay of the consumption tax is very popular but runs counter to what the powerful Department of Finance along with various LDP policy wonks want.  So to have it both ways for now Abe will deny such an election for the benefit of the Department of Finance and various LDP factions, and other LDP sources will infer such an election to keep LDP popular.  I guess after the Hokkaido 5th district by-election at the end of April this will come to a head assuming LDP wins.  In Hokkaido 5th it will be LDP-KP-ORA-NPD vs DP-SDP-PLP-JCP.  Given the bad relationship between DP and JCP in Hokkaido you have to give this election to the LDP.  Then Abe will have to make a call if he wants to risk a mid-term election.

[jaichind]

For Hokkaido 5th District by-election for 4/24 the latest poll seems ominous for LDP.  It has DP (also backed by PLP SDP JCP) 45 LDP (also backed by KP-ORA-NPD) 40.  

In theory if you look at the PR vote in 2014 for the Hokkaido 5th district



It has LDP-KP at 44 (the red bars) and DPJ-PLP-SDP-JCP-JIP at 50 (the blue bars).  But part of the DPJ vote was the NDP which backed DPJ in 2014.  Also the JIP vote in 2014 also must have included the ORA vote which is now backing LDP.  Parts of the Hokkaido DPJ vote base and whatever JIP vote that went into DP historically have been negative on JCP making it hard to keep this bloc intact without defections.  LDP has been calling this election a battle between LDP-KP vs DP-JCP as a wedge to get the anti-JCP votes from DP to defect to LDP.  By the looks of this poll either this is not working or there is a separate swing away from LDP since 2014.  LDP tends to over-poll in pre-election surveys and to be behind in a poll like this is quite ominous for LDP.

[jaichind]

The last PJK MP that is up for reelection in 2016 浜田和幸(Hamada Kazuyuki) has defected to ORA given the almost non-existent prospects for PJK.  That leaves PJK with 3 MPs left (all Upper House and all elected in 2013).  After this election I suspect PJK will wind up as a party and most likely merge into ORA.

[jaichind]

Oh, one other development which took place back in March was AEJ, which had formed a common caucus with JIP in the Upper House back in Jan much to the anger of DPJ, has canceled this common caucus when JIP merged with DPJ into DP.  Now AEJ is by itself with 4 Upper House MPs which means it lost designation as an official party eligible to receive government funds.   2 of its 4 Upper House MPs are up for re-election.  One, 松田公太(Matsuda Kōta) will run in Tokyo hoping to beat out DP for the last of the 6 seats.  If ORA runs a strong candidate in Tokyo he could be sunk.   The other, 山田太郎 (Taro Yamada), who was elected back in 2010 on the YP PR slate  it is not clear if he is even going to run at all since it is not clear AEJ will even run a PR section.  Just like PJK, I suspect after the 2016 elections AEJ will mostly wind up as a party with members going to LDP ORA or DP.

[jaichind]

DP-JCP deal in 愛媛(Ehime) to run a center-left independent so the number of opposition united fronts is 16 out of 32 1- district seats



青森(Aomori) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
宮城(Miyagi) - DP candidate -> lean LDP
山形(Yamagata) - center-left independent (former DPJ MP) -> tossup
栃木(Tochigi) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
新潟(Niigata) - PLP candidate -> tossup
福井(Fukui) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
山梨(Yamanashi) - DP candidate -> tossup
長野(Nagano) - DP candidate -> tossup/lean DP
鳥取(Tottori/
島根(Shimane) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
山口(Yamaguchi) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
徳島(Tokushima)/
高知(Kōchi) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
愛媛(Ehime) - center-left independent -> LDP landlide
長崎(Nagasaki) - DP candidate -> LDP landslide
熊本(Kumamoto) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
宮崎(Miyazaki) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
沖縄(Okinawa) - OSMP candidate -> lean OSMP

[jaichind]

Some funny stories coming out of Tokyo.

In Tokyo for the Upper House it is a 6- member district going up from 5- from 2013.  The LDP plan is for LDP to nominate 2 and KP to nominate 1 credible candidates which should be a lock for LDP-KP to win 3 out of 6 seats and let the various opposition parities fight over the rest versus trying to win 4 out of 6 and most likely ending up with 2 if there are good opposition coordination.    LDP has 1 incumbent coming into 2016 so they have to search for a second LDP candidate.  

Their original and seemly innovation idea for the second LDP candidate was famous disabled writer 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) who was born without arms or legs.


 
Several other parties, namely AEJ, were trying to recruit Ototake as well but he went with LDP which was a coup to improve the image of LDP as an inclusive party.  Then investigative journalist came out with a story that Ototake was a major "player" has at least five mistresses concurrently.  His wife came out to defend him saying that she was responsible for his affairs for not being able to satisfy him at home.  It is pretty amazing that a man without arms and legs is able to get more "action" then most non-disabled men.  

Anyway, this revelation forced LDP to look elsewhere for its second Tokyo candidate and time is running out.  The latest leaked plan is that LDP might nominate no other than former LDP heavyweight, YP founder and then discraced leader 渡辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi).



Watanabe been in the political wilderness since being beaten by the LDP running as an independent in the 2014 Lower House election in his home fiefdom district after YP was disbanded.  Watanabe was a good friend of Abe back when Abe as PM the first time and bolted from LDP in 2009 at a time when Abe was clearly out of power in the LDP so this is plausible.   There are also talk that Watanabe might run in the LDP PR slate.  Watanabe says he is eager to run in the 2016 elections and that several parties have approached him to run in their PR slate.  Watanabe also says that he might form a new party.  Watanabe's nephew 渡辺美知太郎 (Watanabe Michitaro) who was a YP Upper House MP but now independent (as opposed to joining AEJ) is also said to be looking into joining LDP.  I actually backed YP back in the day when it was formed as a small government libertarian party but this is turning into a circus that does not end.

[Vega]

Unless there are any Latin American dictators running, nothing can top the strangeness of candidates when it came to the 2007 Councillor elections.

[jaichind]

週刊現代(Shūkan Gendai) or Modern Weekly is a general-interest weekly magazine published in Japan which more recently have been doing more political reporting came up with a shocking projection.   It projected that if Abe called a double election the LDP will receive a significant setback and go from 291 seats in the 2014 election to 225 seats.   This with KP in the low 30s will put LDP-KP to around at most 260 seats which would be a bare majority.

[Vega]

週刊現代(Shūkan Gendai) or Modern Weekly is a general-interest weekly magazine published in Japan which more recently have been doing more political reporting came up with a shocking projection.   It projected that if Abe called a double election the LDP will receive a significant setback and go from 291 seats in the 2014 election to 225 seats.   This with KP in the low 30s will put LDP-KP to around at most 260 seats which would be a bare majority.

That would certainly be interesting. Did they have predictions for just the House of Councillors election in the summer?

[jaichind]

週刊現代(Shūkan Gendai) or Modern Weekly is a general-interest weekly magazine published in Japan which more recently have been doing more political reporting came up with a shocking projection.   It projected that if Abe called a double election the LDP will receive a significant setback and go from 291 seats in the 2014 election to 225 seats.   This with KP in the low 30s will put LDP-KP to around at most 260 seats which would be a bare majority.

That would certainly be interesting. Did they have predictions for just the House of Councillors election in the summer?

Since I did not buy the magazine to read the article l itself I do not know if they have projections for the Upper House.  I went off their headlines on the front page.  

In other news, the new NHK monthly polls came out.  Abe approval dropping down to 42.  In terms of party support LDP+KP is now at 39% which is a level last seen back in the Summer of 2015 during the peak of the new security law controversy.  DP support is only at 9.1% so they are not winning over the LDP+KP defectors either.  ORA not polling at well either at 1.4% but the anti-LDP Right always polls poorly but way outperforms their poling last few election cycles.  Everyone is at a wait and see.  

[jaichind]

JCP leader Kazuo Shii (志位 和夫) came out with the goal of reaching deals with DP-PLP-SDP in all 32 1- district seats.  Of course he does realize that this pretty much means that the JCP will pretty much have to withdraw candidates in almost all of them.  Chances are zero that DP will withdraw candidates in favor of JCP for the simple reason that it will not work and a good part of the DP vote base will vote LDP before they will vote JCP.  The best deal the JCP can get is a center-left pro-DP and not anti-JCP independent.

On the flip side, DP, in my view are moving various nomination mistakes in the mulit- member districts if the goal is to beat back LDP-KP. 

1) In 北海道(Hokkaido) which is a 3- seat district, LDP will nominate 2 candidates and with the new LDP-KP alliance with NPD chances are high they will win 2 out of 3 seats.  The only way LDP can be stopped is if DP and JCP both nominate one candidate and engage in tactical voting hoping the LDP-KP-NPD vote is not evenly distributed between the 2 LDP candidates.  Instead DP has nominated 2 candidates which ensures that LDP will win both with the added risk to DP that JCP will win the 3 seat locking out DP entirely.

2) Something similar in 3- seat 千葉(Chiba) but somewhat more justified.  Here LDP and KP will each nominate one and have a solid shot of winning 2 out of 3.  DP's original plan was to nominate 1 candidate and have some de facto coordination with the JCP candidate to try to deny LDP-KP from winning 2 seats.   The the ex-YP now independent incumbent MP  水野 賢一(Mizuno Ken'ichi) decided to come over to DP which decided to nominate him as their second candidate.  Now if Mizuno manages to bring along part of the anti-LDP center-right vote with him perhaps this is worth it.  But chances are even if he does bring a significant bloc of voters with him the chances of 3 anti-LDP candidates running and winning the top two spots over the 2 LDP candidates is almost zero.  The chances of JCP winning the third seat and DP getting wiped out is lower but by doing this DP lost any chance of holding LDP-KP to 1 out of 3 seats.

3) In 4 seat 神奈川(Kanagawa) the opposite of Chiba is taking place.  There the original LDP plan is to have LDP and KP run a candidate each and lock up 2 out of 4 seats.  The the ex-YP now independent  incumbent 中西健治(Kenji Nakanishi) went over to the LDP who decided to nominate him on the logic that he can bring the old YP vote with him.  The correct response is for DP to nominate one candidate and JCP to nominate one candidate  to beat back this attempt of the LDP-KP to win 3 out of 4 seats.  Instead DP also decided  to nominate 2 candidates plus the one candidate from JCP.  Now it seems a lot less likely the LDP-KP plan to win 3 of 4 will be stopped with the extra risk that JCP will win the 4th seat and DP being wiped out.  Only think that can save DP now is if ORA runs a credible candidate and robs  Kenji of his vote base keeping him behind 2 out of the 3 anti-LDP-KP candidates. 

4) In 4 seat 愛知(Aichi) we have a similar situation.  LDP and KP will nominate 1 candidate each to lock up 2 out of 4 seats.  Old center-right DPJ splinter TCJ looks like will ally with ORA to nominate a candidate.  It is not clear how much votes TCJ-ORA will get but it could be significant.  The way to lock TCJ-ORA out is for DP to nominate one candidate and JCP to nominate one candidate.  Instead DP will nominate 2 candidates an risk losing a seat to TCJ-ORA in addition to the extra risk of JCP winning the last seat with DP getting nothing.  Aichi is an old DPJ stronghold so this risk is the lowest but if the election trends work against DP then this worst case could take place.

I think what the DP is trying to do is to maintain and grow its vote base by keeping enough of the local political power brokers in its camp by nominating them.  Even if this means losing extra seats to LDP, JCP or ORA they figure it is worth it to maintain its base to fight another day. 

 
 

[jaichind]

For Kyodo 3rd district by-election, LDP-KP will not nominate a candidate given the nature of LDP incumbent  宮崎 謙介( Miyazaki Kensuke) resignation over a sex scandal.  So the election will be

DP (backed by SDP)
ORA
PJK (backed by the mostly defunct LDP hawk libertarian splinter NPR)
HRP

I guess DP should have the edge here even as some LDP voters will vote ORA, some of the dovish KP voters might go with DP.  DP's candidate was the MP of the district and have deep roots here.

[jaichind]

Abe to face possible $54 billion GPIF loss, but only after election

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/04/05/national/politics-diplomacy/abe-face-possible-54-billion-gpif-loss-election/#.Vwxc8KQrKUk

GPIF is the government pension fund.  The Abe regime decided in 2014 for GPIF to invest more into equities which in my view is a good idea.  Problem is they started to execute on this in 2015 which is at the peak of the market.  As a result GPIF mostly likely took heavy losses as a result of the market downturn starting in mid 2015.  Estimates are that $54 billion were lost.  What seems to have took place was the Abe regime decided to delay releasing the annual results of GPIF until after the election.  Many backward prefectures depending on pension payments to drive the economy so the news that GPIF took heavy looses could hurt the LDP-KP.  As a result it seems Abe made the call that he rather take the heat only delaying the results than deal with announcing these losses before the election.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

His wife came out to defend him saying that she was responsible for his affairs for not being able to satisfy him at home.

Ugh. This is probably my absolute least favorite talking point in sexuality/relationship issues. Of course it's not Mrs. Ototake's fault that she thinks like this, if indeed she does really think like this.

[jaichind]

His wife came out to defend him saying that she was responsible for his affairs for not being able to satisfy him at home.

Ugh. This is probably my absolute least favorite talking point in sexuality/relationship issues. Of course it's not Mrs. Ototake's fault that she thinks like this, if indeed she does really think like this.

This is pretty standard in traditional Chinese societies, especially in places like HK or Taiwan Province.  Whatever the wife of a prominent personality might think their job is to publicly say stuff like this.  On Taiwan Province ROC when the son of DPP ex-Prez Chen Shui-Bian 陳致中 (Chen Tsi-Chong) back in 2010 was in the middle of an election campaign for KaoShiung City Council in a fairly traditional district he was pretty much caught using a prostitute, he came out denying it when pretty much everyone knew he was "guilty" looking at the circumstantial evidence.   His wife came out supporting him and saying she totally believe him when he said he was not guilty.  He won by a landslide not because people thought he was not guilty but they felt using a prostitute was no big deal and they were voting for his wife for doing what is right thing to do in their view whatever she might think privately.   

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

His wife came out to defend him saying that she was responsible for his affairs for not being able to satisfy him at home.

Ugh. This is probably my absolute least favorite talking point in sexuality/relationship issues. Of course it's not Mrs. Ototake's fault that she thinks like this, if indeed she does really think like this.

This is pretty standard in traditional Chinese societies, especially in places like HK or Taiwan Province.  Whatever the wife of a prominent personality might think their job is to publicly say stuff like this.

Yeah, I know it is; I've seen it before. It gives me the willies every time.

[Vega]

His wife came out to defend him saying that she was responsible for his affairs for not being able to satisfy him at home.

Ugh. This is probably my absolute least favorite talking point in sexuality/relationship issues. Of course it's not Mrs. Ototake's fault that she thinks like this, if indeed she does really think like this.

This is pretty standard in traditional Chinese societies, especially in places like HK or Taiwan Province.  Whatever the wife of a prominent personality might think their job is to publicly say stuff like this.

Yeah, I know it is; I've seen it before. It gives me the willies every time.

It's even worse when a politician in North America says it.

[jaichind]

DP-PLP-SDP-JCP grand alliance deals reached in
富山(Toyama), 石川(Ishikawa), and 滋賀(Shiga) raising the number of 1- districts where there are grand alliance deals to 19 out of 32.  Other than Shiga where this deal in my book makes it tossup and even potentially tossup/lean DP  the rest do not matter since LDP will win in Toyama and Ishikawa no matter what.



青森(Aomori) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
宮城(Miyagi) - DP candidate -> tossup/lean LDP
山形(Yamagata) - center-left independent (former DPJ MP) -> tossup
栃木(Tochigi) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
新潟(Niigata) - PLP candidate -> tossup/lean LDP
富山(Toyama)- center-left independent -> LDP landslide
石川(Ishikawa) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
福井(Fukui) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
山梨(Yamanashi) - DP candidate -> tossup
長野(Nagano) - DP candidate -> tossup/lean DP
滋賀(Shiga) - DP candidate -> tossup
鳥取(Tottori/
島根(Shimane) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
山口(Yamaguchi) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
徳島(Tokushima)/
高知(Kōchi) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
愛媛(Ehime) - center-left independent -> LDP landlide
長崎(Nagasaki) - DP candidate -> LDP landslide
熊本(Kumamoto) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
宮崎(Miyazaki) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
沖縄(Okinawa) - OSMP candidate -> lean OSMP

Note how in districts where it is solid LDP or LDP landslide the grand alliance has nominated a center-left independent but in districts there are realistic shot of beating LDP it is a DP (or ex-DPJ MP) or PLP candidate.  I guess they figure: we are going to lose anyway so lets nominate someone outside of {DP PLP SDP} who identify with the opposition grand alliance that might have local non-partisan personal vote and we might get lucky.  It is like the Dems going with Greg Orman in the 2014 KS Senate race (where it did not work) or Bill Walker in the 2014 AK governor race (where it did work.)  They have nothing to lose.

[Famous Mortimer]

His wife came out to defend him saying that she was responsible for his affairs for not being able to satisfy him at home.

Ugh. This is probably my absolute least favorite talking point in sexuality/relationship issues. Of course it's not Mrs. Ototake's fault that she thinks like this, if indeed she does really think like this.

This is pretty standard in traditional Chinese societies, especially in places like HK or Taiwan Province.  Whatever the wife of a prominent personality might think their job is to publicly say stuff like this.

Yeah, I know it is; I've seen it before. It gives me the willies every time.

It's even worse when a politician in North America says it.

Has a North American politician's wife ever actually said this though?

[jaichind]

Latest poll in Hokkaido on Abe approval seems ominous for the Hokkaido 5th district by-election later this month.  It has Abe approval/disapproval at 40/58 which matches the August of 2015 at the peak of the Security Bill controversy 



The very high disapproval number should worry LDP.  LDP has to hope in the by-election and the Upper House elections in the Summer a good part of the 58% that disapprove of Abe are ORA/NPD supporters who will tactically vote for LDP to block JCP.  If not LDP is toast in the by-election and get a setback in the Upper House elections in Hokkaido. 

[jaichind]

As expected, ORA is now making a play for the old DPJ righist splinter TCJ which is regional party in 愛知(Aichi).  ORA is proposing an alliance and perhaps merger of TCJ into ORA and become the ORA branch in Aichi.    ORA is making the point that for ORA and TCJ to run separate candidates will doom both to irrelevance which is considered a DPJ stronghold plus the JIP here worked fairly well with DPJ in 2014 and merged well into DPJ into DP.  ORA's plan is for ORA-TCJ to run a single candidate and try to pick up some of the old YP vote base to get the last of 4 seats beating out DP.  TCJ did not seem to have a direct response to this yet.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Latest poll in Hokkaido on Abe approval seems ominous for the Hokkaido 5th district by-election later this month.  It has Abe approval/disapproval at 40/58 which matches the August of 2015 at the peak of the Security Bill controversy 



The very high disapproval number should worry LDP.  LDP has to hope in the by-election and the Upper House elections in the Summer a good part of the 58% that disapprove of Abe are ORA/NPD supporters who will tactically vote for LDP to block JCP.  If not LDP is toast in the by-election and get a setback in the Upper House elections in Hokkaido. 

Freedom Prefecture!

[jaichind]

Since it was asked for.  This is a newer and better logo for DP