2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 05, 2024, 11:12:44 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election  (Read 24423 times)
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


« on: June 11, 2020, 11:37:31 AM »

Well there's the countryside and the countryside isn't there. I think the party as a whole needs to accept most of the old south western base isn't coming back - it suffered a terminal blow in May 2010 and finally bit the dust in June 2016. But there are regions where a rural recovery could be very feasible - if B&R was winnable in August 2019 there's no reason why it shouldn't be in May 2024 for instance.

If I was a party strategist however, I think in 2024 I would concentrate the vast vast majority of resources on the following seats:

East Dunbartonshire
Wimbledon
Cheltenham
Winchester
Cheadle
Cambridgeshire South
Esher & Walton
Lewes
Guildford
St Ives
Hazel Grove
Hitchin & Harpenden
Wokingham
Surrey SW
Harrogate & Knaresborough
Brecon & Radnorshire

Unless there's a long-shot that becomes very promising during the campaign, don't bother outside of these seats (Tory/SNP facing seats where Labour even under Starmer will go nowhere). And obviously throw the kitchen sink at holding Caithness and Westmorland.

Overall, I think concentrating on a set of local campaigns can begin the rebuild. As for what leader will be best at that... well, dull might be the order of the day, might it not?
Under Ashdown, Kennedy, and Clegg, from 1997-2010, they got the most seats in seventy years. Southwest England, Wales, Scotland, and London will have to become competitive for the Liberal Democrats, like they were then. Certainly the greatest challenge there is Scotland.
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2020, 04:19:07 PM »

Probably a bit off-topic, but on that note why did Blair support the Irak war? Throughout Europe the trend was generally opposed to the war, and Blair in particular seems like a bad fit for supporting it?

I would imagine most of Labour's base was oppsoed to the war, and in fact I would not be surprised if there were more supporters of the war among the Conservatives in 2002!

Why did Blair side with Bush over Chirac and Schröder? Especially when Blairism is not that far from what Schröder was doing in Germany

Britain, France, and Germany have jostled with each other for a while. They have two main goals in foreign policy traditionally: to assume leadership in Europe, and to become America’s closest friend. Blair believed that the latter could bring about the former and, as such, he regularly flirted with Clinton and Bush.

Chirac and Schröder were influenced by two different strands. In Gaullist France, France had had a nuanced special relationship with the Soviet Union, which was only reversed under Mitterand. Chirac sought to return to the days of French independence from American foreign policy. Similarly, Germany’s foreign policy was heavily influenced by Scheel and Genscher, especially the latter. Genscherism was the balancing act between East and West, which eventually led to Germany’s leadership in Europe. These two men, seeing that they could hardly tie themselves as close to America as Blair had, sought European leadership by refusing to join in with the war.
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2020, 09:21:46 PM »

I'm reading the "Fall Out" book of the Brexit negotiations and the 2017 election and the author said that Farron's team in his London HQ was "half gay, half Christian" (leading to the difficult situation during gaygate)...how representative is that Christian wing of the Lib Dem party membership and activists? Is there still a quite prominent Christian wing, inspired a bit by Christian Democratic parties across the EU?

I always assumed that there was a strong link between Methodism in the South West & the Liberal Democrats; political staffers do tend to be dispropotionately LGBT for some reason in my experience (even more so among the Tories)

Are British Methodists particularly socially conservative? I was rather under the impression that they weren’t.
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2020, 09:23:31 PM »

The only way I see a large shift in public opinion towards electoral reform is if we see an election where the party with the second-largest number of votes ends up with a majority, or a similarly egregiously unproportional result.
Do you prefer PR to STV/AV+?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.02 seconds with 11 queries.