International COVID-19 Megathread

[MATTROSE94]

An update on Italy which I had not made in, I believe, quite a long time:

New cases and new deaths per day have just kept falling and falling, and those statistics have reached the lowest level since last summer. By now, even if the colour-coded areas still exist, the majority of the country is in "white zone", which amounts to barely any restriction aside from having to wear a mask for most things in daily life. Almost half of the population has received at least one dose of vaccine and more than a quarter has received a complete vaccination; the rate of new jabs seems to have stopped accelerating after reaching about 550 thousand a day, but it is still fairly strong.

That's pretty good news out of Italy. I remember that COVID was surging there back in February of March. I guess Mario Draghi is doing a great job as Prime Minister.

[MATTROSE94]

Any country that tries to impose any sort of major lockdown this winter on a *mostly vaccinated* population is going to encounter significant resistance. Almost everywhere, vaccines have been sold as a de facto "passport to freedom" and people won't take kindly if they think they have been sold a pup.

That sucks, because lockdowns will be necessary thanks to the Delta variant.

A vaccinated adult is less likely to die from coronavirus than a bee sting, even with the delta variant around. Lockdowns will not be necessary, and any country using them should instead look to vaccination.

Thousands of fully vaccinated people have died in the US alone. Just read FacesofCOVID like I do.

I Agree. It seems like 25,000-50,000 fully vaccinated people died so far in the US. That is why a permanent premium mask mandate and long-term lockdowns on pretty much everything except grocery stores, utility companies, and medical offices are 100% necessary going forward.

[MATTROSE94]

Any country that tries to impose any sort of major lockdown this winter on a *mostly vaccinated* population is going to encounter significant resistance. Almost everywhere, vaccines have been sold as a de facto "passport to freedom" and people won't take kindly if they think they have been sold a pup.

That sucks, because lockdowns will be necessary thanks to the Delta variant.

A vaccinated adult is less likely to die from coronavirus than a bee sting, even with the delta variant around. Lockdowns will not be necessary, and any country using them should instead look to vaccination.

Thousands of fully vaccinated people have died in the US alone. Just read FacesofCOVID like I do.

A very small fraction of the death tolls since vaccines became available, especially once you exclude those who died less than 3 weeks after their first or second jab. For example, in the UK for the first 6 months of this year, out of an adult population that is now nearly 90% vaccinated, only 252/51,000 (disgraceful) something deaths were of those double jabbed 3 weeks or more. And 73% of those were extremely vulnerable. If you're double jabbed, it's been 3 weeks, and you're not very old and/or unhealthy, you're fine and should be able to live a normal life and treat Covid like any other disease. The vaccines are truly wonderful.

The Delta variant is more contagious than Smallpox and has a much higher death rate than the original strains of COVID from China, Spain, and Italy. I know of at least 25 people who died from Delta who were fully vaccinated.

[MATTROSE94]

What were their medical backgrounds?

About 50% over 50 with comorbidities, 25% less than 50 with comorbidities, 25% no comorbidities and younger than 50.

[MATTROSE94]

If Germany had balls, we would do the same.

No, this is really not a good idea.

Zero Covid is dead, we are all going to have to learn to live with it to a degree.

Yes!

I encourage all citizens of countries with lockdowns to stand up to their government and over throw their government if necessary.

You realize that the only way out of lockdowns is a high immunity rate? That said, I think general vaccine mandates should only be ultima ratio as a very last ressort, but seems like everything else has failed here? At least they're doing something.

And before anyone says "just leave unvaccinated on their own", when more of a quarter of the population doesn't have immunity, the hospitals will collapse when the virus is just left to "run its course". And when hospitals are collapsing, patients with non-Covid diseases will suffer or die as well.

You do realize there will never be lockdowns or any restrictions ever again in the United States, right? One of the reasons Virginia Governor was lost by Democrats was over fear of pandemic restrictions.

I am fine with mask mandates (I mask myself) and vaccine mandates but closing down businesses is never going to work in the United States. It just pushes gatherings to less regulated private homes or big box stores.

This was related to Austria, but still no different here. The virus doesn't care about politics, and the pandemic here and anywhere else won't end before herd immunity is reached. It's just basic science and math.

Let me ask you this:

Do you think any state in the United States will actually do anything?

Probably New Jersey, New York, California, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin if I had to guess.

[MATTROSE94]

The ZOE Covid tracker in the UK suggests a slowing of infection growth there.

That means Omicron should peak in the US around the middle of January considering that the UK is a few weeks ahead of the US regarding COVID.

[MATTROSE94]

WHO says it’s time to lift COVID-19 restrictions calling travel bans “ineffective”

I think that should be up to each individual country. Some may never reopen their borders, and that's okay.

I doubt that Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Germany, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Austria will fully lift their COVID restrictions and border restrictions until COVID cases drop to zero worldwide.

[MATTROSE94]

WHO says it’s time to lift COVID-19 restrictions calling travel bans “ineffective”

I think that should be up to each individual country. Some may never reopen their borders, and that's okay.

I doubt that Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Germany, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Austria will fully lift their COVID restrictions and border restrictions until COVID cases drop to zero worldwide.

That is a very uninformed take. None of these countries are pursuing an elimination strategy. Australia met its vaccination targets and then let cases rise to some of the highest per capita levels in the world. While mistakes were made, because of the very high vaccination rates, Australia could push through it without overwhelming its healthcare system. The same basic choice has been made in New Zealand. The reason we still have a closed border is because it wouldn't be smart to let Omicron in before we have to, and it's still an easy way to reduce cases. It will not be permanently closed.

Interesting. I was always under the impression that those countries were pursuing an elimination strategy. BTW, I do not support an elimination strategy due to the fact that it is impossible to eliminate a disease such as COVID considering that it is now in animal reservoirs. The best approach is to roll back restrictions and push for universal vaccinations worldwide.

[MATTROSE94]

WHO says it’s time to lift COVID-19 restrictions calling travel bans “ineffective”

I think that should be up to each individual country. Some may never reopen their borders, and that's okay.

I doubt that Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Germany, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Austria will fully lift their COVID restrictions and border restrictions until COVID cases drop to zero worldwide.

That is a very uninformed take. None of these countries are pursuing an elimination strategy. Australia met its vaccination targets and then let cases rise to some of the highest per capita levels in the world. While mistakes were made, because of the very high vaccination rates, Australia could push through it without overwhelming its healthcare system. The same basic choice has been made in New Zealand. The reason we still have a closed border is because it wouldn't be smart to let Omicron in before we have to, and it's still an easy way to reduce cases. It will not be permanently closed.

Interesting. I was always under the impression that those countries were pursuing an elimination strategy. BTW, I do not support an elimination strategy due to the fact that it is impossible to eliminate a disease such as COVID considering that it is now in animal reservoirs. The best approach is to roll back restrictions and push for universal vaccinations worldwide.

Well, Australia and New Zealand did, I think. As far as all the others are concerned the strategy has always been to prevent a collapse of the hospitals and curtail the number of COVID deaths until everybody is vaccinated. The vaccination campaigns didn't progress very well in some cases, especially in Germany and Austria, which led to most COVID restrictions being directed against the unvaxxed there.

I read that a lot of the heavily Catholic countries of Europe with the exceptions of Spain, Portugal, and Ireland have progressed very poorly with the vaccination campaign. Maybe that is why Germany, France, and Austria implemented strong COVID restrictions as of late.

[MATTROSE94]

The situation in China sounds absolutely nuts right now. People in Shanghai being forcibly removed to quarantine areas when they test positive, not allowed to go out to walk your dog or even buy groceries, basically impossible to get food delivered and people with chronic conditions dying because the entire hospital system has been re-oriented towards Covid. And apparently.... "zero deaths"

What as incredible demonstration of the eventual failure of "zero covid".

Plus, factories closed, harbours at half. We know how this will probably end...

Well, how?

Maybe a very short economic recession for China. I expect that China will soon be sending in some troops to help Russia, Iran, Chechnya, Belarus, and the Wagner Group in Ukraine, so the Chinese economy might rebound a bit due to war production.