Fairleigh Dickinson University: Kean(R) has a leg up on Bob Menendez(D)

[ATFFL]

New Jersey usually polls close early with a high number of undecideds.  These people do not even glance at the race until after Labor Day.   They then give each candidate some thought.  They usually break heavily for the Dems, but not always. 

When the polls in 2004 showed the race tight they were not wrong.  Polls are not predictors, they are a snapshot of how things look at that moment in time.  People laugh them off because Jersey currently tends to break strongly Dem, but it is not a universal truth.  NJ is one of the more thoughtful states when it comes to looking at candidates.

There were people on this site declaring that Kerry would take NJ by at least the same margin as Gore did and it would certainly not be closer than 12%.  In the end, Bush lost by 6.7%. 

[ATFFL]

The races remain close when Governors appoint senators. The independents usually wait until to last minute to decide if an appointee is fit to be fully elected. Remember, Knowles was leading Murkowski and then the independents broke late and broke for Murkowski. The same thing happened in 2002 with jean Carnahan. The independents wait until the last minute when deciding on an appointee.

The problem is there were no good, reputable pollsters who did the Alaska Senate race.

[ATFFL]

Bill Clinton has also held fundraisers and will probably campaign.

Well, this race is over.  Score one for the GOP as Kean picks this up.

(You familiar with the Clinton Curse?)