Fairleigh Dickinson University: Kean(R) has a leg up on Bob Menendez(D)

[DownWithTheLeft]

Seven point swing from last month, Zelema Farber is finally catching up to Bob Menendez.  And that building, there is going to be an investigation.  My only question is, when do the Democrats replace him w/Codey to assure victory?

[DownWithTheLeft]

The last Strategic Vision poll had it 42-40, this race is purly a tossup.

For now, but if you look at it on a company by company basis, Kean is up month to month in most companies.

[DownWithTheLeft]

He was only up in 2 polls most polls have Menendez, this is one university poll, lets see what the other university has to say Reuters, and this poll is well within the margin of error so as long as it is the Dems are not going to replace him. If Menendez was down by 7 points  or 10 then he would be replaced.

New scandals every day, Bob Menendez has no where to go but down.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Like I said the poll is within the margin of error of 3-4 points and I wouldn't count him out just yet. Let's see what Quinnipiac puts out.

I'm counting him out, I'm just saying Kean is the one with room to go up, Menendez has reached his ceiling.

[DownWithTheLeft]

You can't count anyone out unless they reach 50%. You tend to count the Dems out when they are outside the margin of error but you don't count out Conrad Burns or Santorum who is outside the margin of error 7 point deficit for Burns and 9 point deficit for Santorum, and Tester and Casey has already reached the 50% they need to win by.

Ok, again I don't count Menendez out, I don't count any incumbents "out" until there down about 15 September or later.  I still think Burns will lose, but Santorum win.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Like I said the poll is within the margin of error of 3-4 points and I wouldn't count him out just yet. Let's see what Quinnipiac puts out.

I'm counting him out, I'm just saying Kean is the one with room to go up, Menendez has reached his ceiling.

Haha, ~40% is Menendez' ceiling? 

Remember what Vorlon said about uni polls not named Quinnipiac, boys and girls.

Quinnipiac has Kean up too, Bob Menendez has no where to go but down b/c of all the scandals emerging.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Like I said the poll is within the margin of error of 3-4 points and I wouldn't count him out just yet. Let's see what Quinnipiac puts out.

I'm counting him out, I'm just saying Kean is the one with room to go up, Menendez has reached his ceiling.

It says Kean is dragged down by the war in Iraq. If this would not be the case he would lead Menendez by 6 or 7%.

I don´t know much about Kean. For me it seems he is a good candidate, a centrist and liberal on social issues.

Can someone give me an overview of him plz ?

http://tomkean.com/today/index.cfm?e=user.issues.overview

Foreign Policy:
Compares his war policy to McCain, we made mistakes but we can't call for a timetable

He says the UN can help, but we must stop the corruption there

Education:
Not much other than he supports AP classes

Ethics:
Believes corruption is the most important issue

Economy:
lower taxes, promote free trade, keep more of your own money

Health Care:
Against UHC, supports malpractice reform

Homeland Security:
Wants to give more money to NJ and improve communication between gov agencies

SS:
supports privitization

Social Issues:
He is pro-choice
Don't know about gay marriage

He is a moderate, but not a RINO, kind of like a Johnny Isakason.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Quinnipiac has Kean up too, Bob Menendez has no where to go but down b/c of all the scandals emerging.

Quinnipiac hasn't done a poll in a month and a half.

And Menendez has plenty of room to go up.  He's polling in the low 40s in a state where Kerry got 52%.  Expect the Menendez vote to mirror the Kerry vote at the end of the day.

Considering the hatred of Bush in NJ the fact Kerry got 52% was awful.  Everyone seems to conviently leave out this is the first time a Republican other than Doug Forrester has run for statewide office since:

1.) Dems made illegal candidate switch
2.) Torricelli refused to run, but resign
3.) McGreevey stopped NJ from having a special election
4.) Corzine pushed Codey out of the way, showing the "machine"
5.) The budget debacle

And NJ has never voted for Bob Menendez statewide, he was an appointee of Jon Corzine.  That is a little bit stronger tie than Kean to Bush.  Kean is clean as a politician can be, and Menendez is having so much dug up on him.  Kean wins w/about 52%

[DownWithTheLeft]

This poll showed Menendez up 3 last month, 7 point swing.  I'm not that excited about the poll other than the fact that it shows Kean is at least dead even in the race.  The state of the national GOP should improve by November.

BTW, the last time a Senate race was held in NJ that did not include Doug Forrester, it was also pre-9/11 and in the bad GOP year of 2000, Bob Franks only lost to Corzine by 3 after being amazingly outspent.  The problem w/the NJ GOP in recent years isn't that their dead in the water, it's they they've had awful candidates.  When people like Christy Whitman and Tom Kean were running for office they won.  They when radical right-wingers like Schundler and idiots like Forrester ran (the only two since Franks), the GOP took a turn for the worse.  Tom Kean Jr. brings back to the NJ GOP the ideas and success of his father.  When his father hits the campaign trail, he'll get a boost.  Menendez has no boost b/c Corzine coming anywhere near him is as bad as Bush coming near Kean.  Kean is doing a great job of digging up dirt on Menendez and really being his ethics into question in a state where ethics is among the top issues.

The fact that "ethics" and "corruption" are top issues shows that NJ is fed up of the corruption of the Dem political machine headed by Corzine, Menendez and those types.  The Dem have gotten their shot in recent years (it wasn't until 01' they took back the governor's mansion and 03' the senate) and they have greatly blown it.  Now, in this first post-9/11, post-McGreevey, during scandals involving between Corzine and Menendez, this is the GOP's best pickup oppurtunity, and I would rate it ahead of the Dems taking MO at least.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Menendez=Corzine
Kean does not=Bush

Even NJ can see that

[DownWithTheLeft]

2/6 polls Kean has lead in. I don't think that is something to get excited about.

I'm pretty excited that polls don't mean as much as how corrupt Bob Menendez is and how it is killing him.  I read another story of his corruption every day.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Just searching around the see if I could find the results of the Rasmussen poll behind the wall for NJ and found this:

http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/8/31/93529/7345

Funny, I would use that website

But it says, for what it can be taken for, Kean is up 5, an 11 point swing from last month.  Add that to the 9 point swing in the Farliegh Dickinson poll and we what is shaping up to be a nightmare for Bob Menendez.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Wow, 3/7 polls he still hasn't reached the 50% mark that you need to win by and it is still a tight race, 4-5 points isn't outside of a tight race.

Shows a turn and also shows how hypocritical you are.  Just as an example, you told people to change from Schwarzenegger to Angelides because the Field Poll had him up 1!

[DownWithTheLeft]

At that time, Angelidas was ahead in almost every poll Kean is not ahead in every poll. How hypocrital are you, when Granholm was ahead in all the polls except SV you said she is behind, and now Kean is ahead in all the polls except SV and you say he is ahead.

Because I unlike you, do not base everything on polls. 

Granholm=bad economy, -10 approval, pretty even in polls
Adv: DeVos

Menendez=Corzine buddy, -1 approval, losing major ground in polls, TKJ's father hasn't hit the trail, building scandal, Zelema Farber
Adv: Tom Kean Jr.

That is the difference, if you rely solely on polls like you do, then this is a Kean advantage.  And it isn't necessarily the poll margin, it's the poll swing, 11 in Rasmussen 7 in FDU

[DownWithTheLeft]

The bad economy that Bush caused, and Corzine isn't on the ballot is he. And as long as Zogby and SV has him ahead, I will wait until the QU poll comes out before I have him ahead. And you go by Elliot, he hasn't changed NJ either.

I used his formula, and w/that poll Kean is now ahead.  Quinnipiac has Kean ahead, Zogby is a joke and Strategic Vision has a tossup.  If Kean had a D next to his name and Menendez an R, you would change this race in a heartbeat and tell everyone else to do so.

[DownWithTheLeft]

And if Kean can be tied to Bush other than the fact he is a Republican, I'd like to hear it.  If you can prove Menendez is not associated w/Corzine (who appointed so it impossible) then I will buy that argument.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Corzine isn't on the ballot. And you can't seem to get it, the republicans aren't associated to the Abrahoff scandle and they are about to lose the House. Al Gore was tied to Bill Clinton eventhough he didn't do the Monica Lewinsky scandle. If your party suffers, then you suffer. As far as Kean winning, Bush approval ratings are so low in the state, I don't think that will help Kean.

Yes, of course, your clairvoyant again that knows the Dems are taking back the house.  Seriously, keep to your own standards, but of course you won't and that's why I am beginning to stop taking you seriously.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I said that Bush net approval ratings in the state is a determining factor, and Corzine's approval ratings is still positive that is the difference. And the House republicans eventhough they don't have ties to the Abrahoff scandle are suffering. People won't take you seriously when you go by polls that have Kean up only in 3 out of 7 polls. And every prognosticator have the Dems taking back the House due to the Abrahoff scandle.

First off, people don't take anyone seriously who bases everything on polls.  3 out 7 is about 50%, and I'm not basing my Kean winning prediction on polls.  But out of those 7, 2 are FDU, and 2 are Rasmussen, so eliminate the old polls from those companies and its 3 out of 5.  Corzine has a negative approval rating and is going to the way of Florio and McGreevey.  Tell me this, how many Democrats have won statewide in NJ since the corruption started in 2002, that didn't beat Doug Forrester?  The answer is none, unless you include Kerry who did much worse than Gore.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I am not taking this poll company seriously when they showed like Keystone state a close race in 2004 and the race wasn't even close. They were consistently wrong in 2004 on the presidential race. And I said I will wait for QU to predict Kean the winner.

Ummm, QU is already predicting Kean the winner!!!!
And your ignoring the Rasmussen poll and all the scandals that come out by the day for Bob Menendez.

[DownWithTheLeft]

The new one hasn't come out yet.  I will wait for the debates to decide. But the scandles can just as easily hurt Menendez and the Abrahoff scandle can hurt republicans.

That quote is nothing short of misinformed and moronic.  What the hell connection does Tom Kean have to Jack Abramoff?  NONE

What scandals are being brought up against Menendez? COUNTLESS

[DownWithTheLeft]

I said that the Abrahoff scandle doesn't have to be directly tied to Kean it can hurt the republicans in general like it is hurting the republicans in the house and not all of them are directly tied.

That's absolutley stupid, there is no way Kean will be brought down by Abramoff.  Menendez actually is engulfed in scandal, that is a big deal, Abramoff has about as much of a connection to Tom Kean Jr. as I do.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Then why are the House republicans suffering and why are the republicans Congressional election numbers so low. They are below by double digits. It has to do with the Abramhoff scandle plus Bush approval ratings.

So House Republicans are now the same as Tom Kean Jr., do you realize you don't make any sense?  Stop trying to cover one stupid statement w/another, just admit that your being hypocritical and Tom Kean Jr. has the adv in this race.

What in the world gives Bob Menendez an adv except for polls taken before the building scandal came out?

[DownWithTheLeft]

I didn't say that the scandles is an overarching determining factor. The Dems made gains but they lost the presidency in 2000 due to the monica lewinsky scandle. Monica Lewinsky played a part. And they were suppose to take back the House. The presidency is more important than the house. And they lost it, and Bush ran on Monica Lewinsky until he got the presidency.

Do you realize Clinton was not impeached over his affair w/Monica Lewinsky but the fact he perjured himself and lied about it?  His affair was sleazy, but it wasn't an impeachable offense.  That and Abramoff will have a 1% effect on NJ at the most, and not 1% of the vote, but 1% of the people of the state of NJ will even remember who Jack Abramoff is when voting for Tom Kean Jr or Bob Menendez.

What are you doing?

Easy, you are distracting people from the real picture which is Bob Menendez is going downhill very fast due to Corzine, Zelema Farber, Bob Torricelli, Frank Lautenberg, Jim McGreeevey, the party's rejection of Codey, the 2002 ballot mess, the building scandal, Tom Kean's prestige, and numerous other factors.  STOP DIVERTING

[DownWithTheLeft]

As long as the Republicans have a 28% approval ratings, I think it will have a 20% net affect. I think that the turnout in Trenton and Newark will overwhelm the support in the GOP areas, there are more people. 

See, as bad of a reason as that is, at least it's a reason.

[DownWithTheLeft]

It is not bad to think that the Abramhoff scandle with Burns and the Republicans are going to have some impact on the House and Senate races. If you don't think so, you are in for a surprise. 

If your counting on Abramoff to deliever you seats, your in for a big suprise.