Fairleigh Dickinson University: Kean(R) has a leg up on Bob Menendez(D) (user search)
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  Fairleigh Dickinson University: Kean(R) has a leg up on Bob Menendez(D) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Fairleigh Dickinson University: Kean(R) has a leg up on Bob Menendez(D)  (Read 17257 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« on: August 30, 2006, 07:51:18 AM »
« edited: September 03, 2006, 06:55:38 AM by overton »
New Poll: New Jersey Senator by Fairleigh Dickinson University on 2006-08-27

Summary: D: 39%, R: 43%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2006, 10:13:39 AM »
The last Strategic Vision poll had it 42-40, this race is purly a tossup.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2006, 10:21:46 AM »
He was only up in 2 polls most polls have Menendez, this is one university poll, lets see what the other university has to say Reuters, and this poll is well within the margin of error so as long as it is the Dems are not going to replace him. If Menendez was down by 7 points  or 10 then he would be replaced.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2006, 10:25:36 AM »
Like I said the poll is within the margin of error of 3-4 points and I wouldn't count him out just yet. Let's see what Quinnipiac puts out.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2006, 10:34:04 AM »
You can't count anyone out unless they reach 50%. You tend to count the Dems out when they are outside the margin of error but you don't count out Conrad Burns or Santorum who is outside the margin of error 7 point deficit for Burns and 9 point deficit for Santorum, and Tester and Casey has already reached the 50% they need to win by.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2006, 12:37:16 PM »
Rasmussen and SV don't have him up we will see when the next QU comes out.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2006, 05:40:37 PM »
It was like the Keystone poll of PA, they showed Bush consistently ahead until October, and then Kerry was ahead.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #7 on: August 31, 2006, 08:44:56 AM »
2/6 polls Kean has lead in. I don't think that is something to get excited about.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #8 on: August 31, 2006, 08:54:02 AM »
You talk about corruption, the republicans might lose the House due to the Abraholf scandle and that can spill over into these senate races.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #9 on: August 31, 2006, 09:56:24 AM »
Wow, 3/7 polls he still hasn't reached the 50% mark that you need to win by and it is still a tight race, 4-5 points isn't outside of a tight race.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #10 on: August 31, 2006, 11:12:47 AM »
At that time, Angelidas was ahead in almost every poll Kean is not ahead in every poll. How hypocrital are you, when Granholm was ahead in all the polls except SV you said she is behind, and now Kean is ahead in all the polls except SV and you say he is ahead.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #11 on: August 31, 2006, 11:17:58 AM »
The bad economy that Bush caused, and Corzine isn't on the ballot is he. And as long as Zogby and SV has him ahead, I will wait until the QU poll comes out before I have him ahead. And you go by Elliot, he hasn't changed NJ either.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #12 on: August 31, 2006, 11:32:52 AM »
Corzine isn't on the ballot. And you can't seem to get it, the republicans aren't associated to the Abrahoff scandle and they are about to lose the House. Al Gore was tied to Bill Clinton eventhough he didn't do the Monica Lewinsky scandle. If your party suffers, then you suffer. As far as Kean winning, Bush approval ratings are so low in the state, I don't think that will help Kean.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #13 on: August 31, 2006, 11:39:18 AM »
I said that Bush net approval ratings in the state is a determining factor, and Corzine's approval ratings is still positive that is the difference. And the House republicans eventhough they don't have ties to the Abrahoff scandle are suffering. People won't take you seriously when you go by polls that have Kean up only in 3 out of 7 polls. And every prognosticator have the Dems taking back the House due to the Abrahoff scandle.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #14 on: August 31, 2006, 11:46:32 AM »
I am not taking this poll company seriously when they showed like Keystone state a close race in 2004 and the race wasn't even close. They were consistently wrong in 2004 on the presidential race. And I said I will wait for QU to predict Kean the winner.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #15 on: August 31, 2006, 11:54:43 AM »
The new one hasn't come out yet.  I will wait for the debates to decide. But the scandles can just as easily hurt Menendez and the Abrahoff scandle can hurt republicans.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #16 on: August 31, 2006, 11:58:41 AM »
I said that the Abrahoff scandle doesn't have to be directly tied to Kean it can hurt the republicans in general like it is hurting the republicans in the house and not all of them are directly tied.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #17 on: August 31, 2006, 12:02:23 PM »
Then why are the House republicans suffering and why are the republicans Congressional election numbers so low. They are below by double digits. It has to do with the Abramhoff scandle plus Bush approval ratings.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #18 on: August 31, 2006, 12:07:34 PM »
« Edited: August 31, 2006, 12:09:52 PM by overton »
The congressional republicans are at 28% this includes the House and the Senate. It is at 28%. I am not saying he is directly tied to the Abramhoff scandle but the scandle has brought shame on republicans in general. Just like Monica Lewinsky scandle did on Dems. Kean may or may not be affected because he isn't in Washington.

Didn't republicans benefit from the monica lewinsky scandle that answers my question and Dems couldn't gain the majority in 2000 because of it.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #19 on: August 31, 2006, 12:22:12 PM »
But the Monica Lewinsky scandle hurt their chances of taking back the House, and hurt Al Gore's chances in TN in 2000. I am saying that scandles can have a small impact on the party in power.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #20 on: August 31, 2006, 12:34:21 PM »
Answer my question, they lost the presidency, and Cook said they were suppose to take back the house which they didn't. Why are the republicans in the House and Senate at 28%, I am saying scandles don't have an overriding effect on races, the candidates  have to win it for themselves, but it can have some impact.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #21 on: August 31, 2006, 01:54:09 PM »
I didn't say that the scandles is an overarching determining factor. The Dems made gains but they lost the presidency in 2000 due to the monica lewinsky scandle. Monica Lewinsky played a part. And they were suppose to take back the House. The presidency is more important than the house. And they lost it, and Bush ran on Monica Lewinsky until he got the presidency.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #22 on: August 31, 2006, 02:07:30 PM »
As long as the Republicans have a 28% approval ratings, I think it will have a 20% net affect. I think that the turnout in Trenton and Newark will overwhelm the support in the GOP areas, there are more people. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #23 on: August 31, 2006, 02:17:06 PM »
It is not bad to think that the Abramhoff scandle with Burns and the Republicans are going to have some impact on the House and Senate races. If you don't think so, you are in for a surprise. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,435
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #24 on: August 31, 2006, 02:34:37 PM »
It is going to in the House, but in the senate I don't know.
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