WV-SEN 2024: Manchin out, Justice for All

[Schiff for Senate]

After todays Vote Manchin is TOAST in 2024.

There are now more Registered Republicans living in WV compared to Democrats.

Manchins Vote Share is steadily declining and regardless whom the GOP POTUS Nominee is that Seat is now almost a lock for Republicans. Manchin got only 49 % in a D-Midterm Wave Year and ran against a guy with a lot of Skeletons.

If Mooney takes his shot in 2024 I think Manchin bails on Re-Election, maybe switches Races and runs for Governor again.

https://twitter.com/kellyfphares/status/1556298178630225920
Manchin has already made it clear that he will run for another term in 2024. And lose.

Manchin is blatantly ignoring some facts that WV 2024 will not be the same State as it was in 2018.

Manchins Vote Share went from 60.57 % in 2012 to 49.47 % in 2018. That is a drop of 11 Percentage Points + he ran against a guy who had a lot of skeletons himself.

Manchin is as disllusional as Claire McCaskill, Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Donnelly who consistently thought they could fluke themselves back into Congress until they ran out of luck.

Oh I agree (not to mention 2018 was a blue wave, which 2024 won't be - it'll be a presidential election year where WV goes red by like 40 points at the top of the ballot), but I don't think Manchin is stupid. He's saying this now, sure, but what else should he say? I think he knows better than this and I think he realises very clearly that 2024 will be a very tough lift (if not impossible).

[Schiff for Senate]

After todays Vote Manchin is TOAST in 2024.

There are now more Registered Republicans living in WV compared to Democrats.

Manchins Vote Share is steadily declining and regardless whom the GOP POTUS Nominee is that Seat is now almost a lock for Republicans. Manchin got only 49 % in a D-Midterm Wave Year and ran against a guy with a lot of Skeletons.

If Mooney takes his shot in 2024 I think Manchin bails on Re-Election, maybe switches Races and runs for Governor again.

I agree, but I only question the first three votes (Manchin was basically DOA even before that vote), and the last part. I don't think Mooney running really convinces Manchin to retire - either he plans on retiring in any case, or he probably decides to run even if Mooney runs...Mooney is hardly some political titan. I also disagree that if Manchin retires, he runs for governor again. He'll probably find some nice lobbying job for himself instead or something like that (or maybe he'll just retire, period).

[Schiff for Senate]

After todays Vote Manchin is TOAST in 2024.

There are now more Registered Republicans living in WV compared to Democrats.

Manchins Vote Share is steadily declining and regardless whom the GOP POTUS Nominee is that Seat is now almost a lock for Republicans. Manchin got only 49 % in a D-Midterm Wave Year and ran against a guy with a lot of Skeletons.

If Mooney takes his shot in 2024 I think Manchin bails on Re-Election, maybe switches Races and runs for Governor again.

I agree, but I only question the first three votes (Manchin was basically DOA even before that vote), and the last part. I don't think Mooney running really convinces Manchin to retire - either he plans on retiring in any case, or he probably decides to run even if Mooney runs...Mooney is hardly some political titan. I also disagree that if Manchin retires, he runs for governor again. He'll probably find some nice lobbying job for himself instead or something like that (or maybe he'll just retire, period).

Manchins turns 75 later this month, would be 77 by E-Day 2024.

Yeah, so then just plain retiring (and making sure you end your career on your own terms and not because voters rejected you - see Peterson, Collin) seems like the most likely (and sensible) move.

[Schiff for Senate]

This seat is gone even if Manchin's opponent is a cross between Roy Moore and OJ Simpson.

After Roy Moore himself lost in f--king Alabama, I don't know how anyone could say this with a straight face. It betrays a tragic misunderstanding of West Virginia politics. Manchin himself clearly still thinks he can win, btw, and he knows more about winning elections in West Virginia than probably anyone else alive. Underestimate him at your own peril.

Oh and for the record: Underestimate ME at your own peril, too. Especially when it comes to states in this region.

I know you've posted more than this about Manchin's chances, but I'm still very unsure on how you really think Manchin has a chance.

He won by 3 in a blue wave year. In 2024, it'll be a presidential election year. WV has gotten a TON more polarised since then - the "ancestral D voters" who vote for Trump but support other Democrats, just as they are all over the country, are vanishing rapidly: just look at House of Delegates results - in 2018, Democrats won 41/100 seats, and lost the statewide PV by about 2 points; in 2020, 17 seats flipped red, leaving the Democrats with 24/100 seats (they lost the statewide PV by 18 points); and now this year, they won a mere 12/100 seats, and just over 30% of the statewide PV (it was R+39). Admittedly, there was a major change in the district boundaries during 2020 redistricting, since WV switched from multi-member districts to regular, single-member seats (on this count, I admit the WVGOP, which supported single-member districts was absolutely, 100% right - multi-member districts are only more confusing, unfair, and have a much greater potential for extreme gerrymandering), so it's not an exact comparison, but still. And Manchin's approvals may have been high in that one poll from earlier this year (or last year - don't remember), but I recall that in a more recent sample, they'd sank. Manchin's moderate act kept him afloat (and just barely) in 2018, and I do commend him on that - even in a blue wave, even with the 'ancestral D's' winning a national election in a Trump+42 state is a MASSIVE achievement, but now that act's not working anymore and all the ancestral Ds are gone. If Manchin runs, he loses by a lot. Especially against a genuinely good candidate like Jim Justice (if it's somebody like, say, Alex Mooney, who's much worse in quality, Manchin might have a chance - and even then, I'd say Likely R is being generous to Manchin - but with a candidate like Justice there is no realistic rating but Safe R).

[Schiff for Senate]

This seat is gone even if Manchin's opponent is a cross between Roy Moore and OJ Simpson.

After Roy Moore himself lost in f--king Alabama, I don't know how anyone could say this with a straight face. It betrays a tragic misunderstanding of West Virginia politics. Manchin himself clearly still thinks he can win, btw, and he knows more about winning elections in West Virginia than probably anyone else alive. Underestimate him at your own peril.

Oh and for the record: Underestimate ME at your own peril, too. Especially when it comes to states in this region.

I know you've posted more than this about Manchin's chances, but I'm still very unsure on how you really think Manchin has a chance.

He won by 3 in a blue wave year. In 2024, it'll be a presidential election year. WV has gotten a TON more polarised since then - the "ancestral D voters" who vote for Trump but support other Democrats, just as they are all over the country, are vanishing rapidly: just look at House of Delegates results - in 2018, Democrats won 41/100 seats, and lost the statewide PV by about 2 points; in 2020, 17 seats flipped red, leaving the Democrats with 24/100 seats (they lost the statewide PV by 18 points); and now this year, they won a mere 12/100 seats, and just over 30% of the statewide PV (it was R+39). Admittedly, there was a major change in the district boundaries during 2020 redistricting, since WV switched from multi-member districts to regular, single-member seats (on this count, I admit the WVGOP, which supported single-member districts was absolutely, 100% right - multi-member districts are only more confusing, unfair, and have a much greater potential for extreme gerrymandering), so it's not an exact comparison, but still. And Manchin's approvals may have been high in that one poll from earlier this year (or last year - don't remember), but I recall that in a more recent sample, they'd sank. Manchin's moderate act kept him afloat (and just barely) in 2018, and I do commend him on that - even in a blue wave, even with the 'ancestral D's' winning a national election in a Trump+42 state is a MASSIVE achievement, but now that act's not working anymore and all the ancestral Ds are gone. If Manchin runs, he loses by a lot. Especially against a genuinely good candidate like Jim Justice (if it's somebody like, say, Alex Mooney, who's much worse in quality, Manchin might have a chance - and even then, I'd say Likely R is being generous to Manchin - but with a candidate like Justice there is no realistic rating but Safe R).

The fact is that Manchin has never lost a race in West Virginia, and each time how he does it is a little different. 2018 was a "blue wave" in the House, sure, but a massacre for red state Dems in the Senate... except for Manchin. He always seems to find a way to win. And I just don't buy that West Virginia has changed for the benefit of the GOP statewide since 2018; on the whole it actually trended slightly D in 2020 and 2022 alike. And yeah, Manchin DOES have high approval ratings in his state, which don't count for nothing in this region. If Beshear loses next year, I will adjust my rating accordingly. If he wins, however? I will make it Tilt D, and I am dead serious. Unless there's a lot of other evidence and reason not to anyway. Manchin knows better than you or I how to win West Virginia, certainly you (no offense) all the way in California. He knows how to speak to these people. And if there is one lesson ANYONE -- ESPECIALLY OP! -- should have taken away from this election, it's that candidate quality MATTERS. A whole hell of a lot. It's how Gretchen Whitmer won by more in the 2022 non-red wave than she did in the 2018 "blue wave."

Yeah Manchin's facing a harder climb against Justice for that reason than against the others. But again, looks like Justice is about to keel over any minute. Almost seems like a reverse Fetterman vs. Oz thing, except Manchin is a much stronger candidate than Oz. It should at least give Manchin a fighting chance. There really is no good reason to believe the state is going to zoom far to the right of how it voted in 2018 is my ultimate point, UNLESS Trump is on the ballot perhaps. Which as of now I would bet against happening.

First two sentences - All true. I'll only point out, regarding your very first sentence, that WV 2024 WILL be MUCH redder and MUCH more hostile to the Democrats than it's ever been in ANY of Manchin's prior races. And yes, that includes 2018.

Third sentence - What is "always?" Before 2018, he'd last been up in 2012. At that point WV was still pretty Democratic at the state level and there were plenty of unironic "ancestral Ds" for Democrats to comfortably win in WV non-presidentially. In 2018, yes - his victory was quite impressive. But again, while even a 3 point win, even in a blue wave, is commendable, it is most certainly not enough to give him a real chance at holding on in 2024.

Fourth sentence - Yes, it might be finally - finally - giving Democrats a dead cats' bounce and beginning to inch leftwards. However, that's presidentially. That's from a place where it goes red by 42 points. That's the point of reference here. We're talking R+40, not D+3. From there - let it zoom 20 points to the left, it's still Safe R. Yes, yes, it's moving to the left from R+40. However, it's zooming to the right from D+3. The "ancestral Ds", all the ticket splitters, they're the ones who are leaving the Democrats completely, and they aren't turning back. It's not places like McDowell that are trending D and moving the state with them - it's places like the Eastern Panhandle (the DC suburbs). My point is this: WV may have trended a bit to the left most recently, but that's after it's hit rock-bottom for the Democrats presidentially. Senatorially, there's still a LOOONG way to go. Even with the trends that moved WV from R+42 to R+39, even with Manchin being a good candidate or whatever (more on that later), it's not enough for Manchin to win in 2024. A ~R+40 state is way too red to support a Democrat in a Senate race in 2024, a presidential year at that.

Fifth sentence - Again, I remember that his approvals were very high in one poll, and that got a lot of people (myself included, and I believe I even posted on here as such) thinking Manchin could absolutely win. However, there was a more recent approval poll where his ratings had cratered. We're not viewing the same source material here, and honestly, I'm pretty sure that yours is outdated.

Sentences 6-9: What does Beshear winning in KY have to do with it? I get that eastern KY (counties like Wolfe, Elliott, Floyd, etc.) are very fundamentally similar to southern WV. However, there's a lot more to KY than just that region. And you're comparing apples to oranges anyway. Beshear's race is very different from Manchin's. To name two obvious advantages Beshear has that Manchin doesn't: a.) it's a state race, not a federal one, so it really won't be quite as polarised, and there will be more unironic "ancestral Ds" (excuse my frequent use of the term, but it's a shorthand way of describing those voters) in governor races than senate ones; b.) it's off-year, in 2023, so there will be a lot less polarisation than in 2024, a presidential year. Oh, and there's also the fact that KY is 15-20 points more Democratic than WV (and re: the most recent presidential trends, like WV, KY trended left in 2020, too).

Sentences 7-8: None taken, and I absolutely agree Manchin has a better grasp on WV politics than you or I. HOWEVER, the fundamental fact, when all is said and done, is that he just can't win. It's like saying Phil Bredesen had the best grasp of TN politics when he ran for the Senate in 2018, or that Dave Freudenthal has the best grasp on WY politics. WV is too red. Polarization is too high. He fundamentally can't win any more. For the zenith time, I commend him for managing to hold on in 2018 - but while he's definitely politically strong, that strength really isn't what it used to be, and polarisation has increased across the board in WV by a ton since his last race (again - Democrats won 41 State House seats in 2018; 12 in 2022).

Sentences 9-11: No disagreement whatsoever on this count. Candidate quality is the reason PA voted nearly 10 points to the left of NY in this year's gubernatorial elections despite voting over 20 points to NY's right in 2020-PREZ.

Final paragraph (really addresses only your second-to-last sentence): Again, what I said to your fourth sentence. WV has moved to the left from R+42, and will vote to the left of that in 2024 (obviously in 2024-SEN if Manchin runs, and even 2024-PRES). BUT R+42 is VERY different from D+3 (Manchin 2018) is what I'm trying to tell you. Maybe Manchin will win over a few new voters, flip a few blue from Morrisey 2018. However, there is a very significant contingent of Trump-Manchin-Trump voters. These voters are in places like Mingo County rather than the suburbs (WV does in fact have some suburbs - such as the DC suburbs in the state's Eastern Panhandle). That's what I'm trying to tell you. These voters far outnumber the Morrissey-Biden voters who'll vote Democratic for Manchin in 2024. And they will go overwhelmingly for Manchin's opponent in 2024. Manchin may win a respectable number of these voters, but he'll need to win the vast majority to hold on in 2024. And there's no chance in hell that happens. Whether or not Manchin flips a few voters to him in 2024, whether or not that happens, he's still losing because there are places that will trend hard R against him and a ton of voters who WILL finally reject Manchin (the same way there were enough voters in IA to finally force Tom Miller into retirement, despite his being able to win comfortably in red waves - and that's just one of many examples...there are other such examples in WV itself, and in statewide races, which are of course less polarised than Senate ones). Do you really think Manchin will hold on to McDowell County (Trump+60 in 2020)? Or those other counties that voted for him (excluding Monongalia and probably Kanawha)? Do you truly believe he'll be able to keep the margins nearly as narrow in places like Mingo and Wyoming and the rest of those counties? Because if he can't, he's losing statewide - he won only narrowly in 2018 and can't afford to lose more than a few points more. And if so - that is, if you really believe he'll lose Trump+70 counties by just 13 points and win Trump+60 counties - I've got oceanfront property, right there in WV, to sell you.