WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well it's almost 8/9 anyways had trouble fundraising

[SnowLabrador]

Phew! It's imperative that Barnes wins the primary.

[Xing]

I think Barnes has always been a clear favorite. I doubt he can win the general in a year like this, though I don’t think he’s a particularly bad candidate at all (and I think the margin will be relatively respectable), the environment is just too much of an obstacle to overcome.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Barnes has always been a clear favorite. I doubt he can win the general in a year like this, though I don’t think he’s a particularly bad candidate at all (and I think the margin will be relatively respectable), the environment is just too much of an obstacle to overcome.

Lol, he is leading 46/44 and Obama won the state of WI and Obama campaign for Evers and Barnes in 2018 Ron Johnson didn't win by double digits he won by 3, you keep saying the samething

Steve Konraki already said ignore the rankings, take them with a grain a salt because there will be Provisional ballots like last time and Warnock didn't win outright he won by 50 K votes provision ballots, Loeffler was ahead of Warnock most of the night because the rural vote comes in First

[wbrocks67]

I think Barnes has always been a clear favorite. I doubt he can win the general in a year like this, though I don’t think he’s a particularly bad candidate at all (and I think the margin will be relatively respectable), the environment is just too much of an obstacle to overcome.

I'm confused as to why people say this about Wisconsin. Johnson's approvals are horrific right now, and while WI leans redder than MI/PA, I don't see this as hard as many people think, especially post-Roe.

It won't be *easy* for Barnes, but I think Johnson is being incredibly overrated in this environment.

[Xing]

I think Barnes has always been a clear favorite. I doubt he can win the general in a year like this, though I don’t think he’s a particularly bad candidate at all (and I think the margin will be relatively respectable), the environment is just too much of an obstacle to overcome.

I'm confused as to why people say this about Wisconsin. Johnson's approvals are horrific right now, and while WI leans redder than MI/PA, I don't see this as hard as many people think, especially post-Roe.

It won't be *easy* for Barnes, but I think Johnson is being incredibly overrated in this environment.

I hope you’re right, but even though Wisconsin is comparable to Michigan or Pennsylvania in terms of partisan lean, it tends to swing a great deal with the national environment. Also, while I despise Johnson, he’s generally good at campaigning, even with lackluster approvals, which doesn’t seem to be the case with Oz.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult approval ratings have been a bit dubious, but in the new Q2 senate report, should be noted that he had nearly the worst net approval rating of all 50 senators at -16 (37/53). He was only beat by McConnell (-31).

If that # is anywhere near close, he's in big trouble, even in this environment.

[Sir Mohamed]

Morning Consult approval ratings have been a bit dubious, but in the new Q2 senate report, should be noted that he had nearly the worst net approval rating of all 50 senators at -16 (37/53). He was only beat by McConnell (-31).

If that # is anywhere near close, he's in big trouble, even in this environment.

I wouldn't bank too much on approvals. Going by that, Biden would be headed for a >35 states loss, which would not happen even for polarization alone.

Tbh, I expect polls to be similar to 2016, showing a competitive race or Johnson down before it's pretty much a tie in October, giving Dems some hope, and then we wake up Nov. 9 with Johnson having won 52-47%.

Lean R.

[SnowLabrador]

Morning Consult approval ratings have been a bit dubious, but in the new Q2 senate report, should be noted that he had nearly the worst net approval rating of all 50 senators at -16 (37/53). He was only beat by McConnell (-31).

If that # is anywhere near close, he's in big trouble, even in this environment.

Johnson was even less popular in 2016, and he still won. That doesn't mean it'll happen again for sure, but it's not unprecedented.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult approval ratings have been a bit dubious, but in the new Q2 senate report, should be noted that he had nearly the worst net approval rating of all 50 senators at -16 (37/53). He was only beat by McConnell (-31).

If that # is anywhere near close, he's in big trouble, even in this environment.

I wouldn't bank too much on approvals. Going by that, Biden would be headed for a >35 states loss, which would not happen even for polarization alone.

Tbh, I expect polls to be similar to 2016, showing a competitive race or Johnson down before it's pretty much a tie in October, giving Dems some hope, and then we wake up Nov. 9 with Johnson having won 52-47%.

Lean R.

A comparison between Biden's approvals and Johnson's approvals aren't really comparable, given that Biden's reason is the base giving him low approvals, and Johnson's base has no reason to do so. Which makes Johnson's issue more likely with D's and I's, which is a problem for him in Nov.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult approval ratings have been a bit dubious, but in the new Q2 senate report, should be noted that he had nearly the worst net approval rating of all 50 senators at -16 (37/53). He was only beat by McConnell (-31).

If that # is anywhere near close, he's in big trouble, even in this environment.

Johnson was even less popular in 2016, and he still won. That doesn't mean it'll happen again for sure, but it's not unprecedented.

This talking point is not true and I wish people would stop repeating it. Johnson had an a +6 favorable in Oct 2020 via Marquette.

Even when he was below water in that poll, it was 35/39 in Sept. A 39% unfavorable is a lot different than a 53% unfavorable/disapproval.

Look, again, I could be totally wrong here. But I really feel like people seem to be stuck in some time loop where Johnson is going to perform the same way as *6 years ago* "just because", as if things have not changed since then.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult approval ratings have been a bit dubious, but in the new Q2 senate report, should be noted that he had nearly the worst net approval rating of all 50 senators at -16 (37/53). He was only beat by McConnell (-31).

If that # is anywhere near close, he's in big trouble, even in this environment.

Johnson was even less popular in 2016, and he still won. That doesn't mean it'll happen again for sure, but it's not unprecedented.

Nope.  I looked for actual polls that were still around from 2016 with Johnson's approval, and found two.  

1. An April 2016 poll from St. Norbert College had him at 42 approval, 35 disapproval.  

2. The Morning Consult approval ratings from September 2016 mention Johnson "picked up 1 point to take his net approval rating from 11 points to 12 points" but doesn't list the actual numbers (the Full Results link points to a page that was subsequently updated in post-2016 surveys).

If you can provide a citation for an actual poll that backs up your contention, then do so.  If not, then you should withdraw the claim -- or at the very least, stop making claims without evidence.  This kind of thing is why most people here have little to no respect for your analysis.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/NelsonforWI/status/1551538096805666816
Tom Nelson has dropped out and Endorsed Mandela Barnes apparently his campaign ran out of money.

[Devils30]

Morning Consult approval ratings have been a bit dubious, but in the new Q2 senate report, should be noted that he had nearly the worst net approval rating of all 50 senators at -16 (37/53). He was only beat by McConnell (-31).

If that # is anywhere near close, he's in big trouble, even in this environment.

I've said there are similarities with him and Steve Southerland, Lee Terry in 2014. His behavior is extremely erratic, although to be fair Barnes has more than his share of problems too and is way too left leaning for the state.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult approval ratings have been a bit dubious, but in the new Q2 senate report, should be noted that he had nearly the worst net approval rating of all 50 senators at -16 (37/53). He was only beat by McConnell (-31).

If that # is anywhere near close, he's in big trouble, even in this environment.

I've said there are similarities with him and Steve Southerland, Lee Terry in 2014. His behavior is extremely erratic, although to be fair Barnes has more than his share of problems too and is way too left leaning for the state.

To be fair, Ron Johnson is way too right-leaning at this point for the state, so I feel like those cancel each other out at this point

[SnowLabrador]

My guess is 7-8 points. Wisconsin isn't flipping in this environment, and Johnson has historically gotten great numbers out of WOW; he should also improve in the rural areas.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1552308228750544902?s=20&t=QjGZZ2-eCpJ...

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1552308228750544902?s=20&t=QjGZZ2-eCpJ...

Holy sh**t. That's genuinely shocking.

Is he one of the highest polling candidates to drop out in recent memory?

[Lambsbread]

Woah, holy sh*t. He's endorsing Barnes too. That's huge.

[Gass3268]

Sounds like Lasry wasn't willing to go nuclear on Barnes in the last two weeks.

[Koharu]

Here's a link to WPR's story about Lasry. They indicate that they'll update it as more info becomes available, most likely after Lasry makes an official announcement this afternoon.

[GALeftist]

Good lord what?? Maybe Lasry figures he's built infrastructure for 2028 or something?

Primary is lean --> safe Barnes obviously

[wesmoorenerd]

Great news, considering Barnes is a better candidate and he had a better shot at winning the primary in the first place.

[NewYorkExpress]

Good lord what?? Maybe Lasry figures he's built infrastructure for 2028 or something?

Primary is lean --> safe Barnes obviously

Lasry isn't going to win in 2028 either. Democrats are going to be even less willing to nominate plutocrats to elected to office by then.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1553015383648571392?s=20&t=p60ni3NXlml...