Finnish Parliamentary Election (17 April 2011)

[Tender Branson]

Still a few months to go, but I noticed a recent poll about it.

TNS-Gallup for Helsingin Sanomat (trend chart):



Most interesting is the rise of the right-wing "True Finns".

They got 4% in the 2007 elections, but already poll at 12.5% now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_parliamentary_election,_2011

[Tender Branson]

Poll: True Finns edge their way to number two spot

The populist right-of-centre True Finns party has edged its way past the Social Democratic Party and the Centre Party, and is now the second-most popular political group in Finland.

A poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by TNS Gallup gives the True Finns 18.4 per cent support.
     
Holding on to the number-one spot is the National Coalition Party, with 20.7 per cent support – half of a percentage point more than a month ago.

The Centre Party is largely unchanged from February with 18.3 per cent. The opposition Social Democrats continue to decline, with just 17.4 per cent of respondents indicating a willingness to vote for the SDP – half a percentage point less than in the previous poll.
     
Changes with the other parties are mostly minor. After the top four, the Greens get 8.8 per cent, the Left Alliance gets 7.8 per cent, the Swedish People’s Party gets 4.1 per cent, and the Christian Democrats continue to decline; after a brief surge in late 2010, the party is getting 3.5 per cent.

The poll involved interviews with about 2,500 people between February 21st, and March 16th. The margin of error with the larger parties is two percentage points in either direction.

http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Poll+True+Finns+edge+their+way+to+number+two+spot/1135264675289

[Tender Branson]

I'll try a prediction:

20% Social Democratic Party
19% National Coalition Party
18% Centre Party
16% True Finns
10% Green League
  8% Left Alliance
  4% Christian Democrats
  4% Swedish People's Party
  1% Others

Turnout: 72%

[Tender Branson]

Live Stream:

http://areena.yle.fi/player/index.php?stream=2349&language=en

Not understanding a word, but whatever ...

[Tender Branson]

Exit Polls in a few seconds.

[Tender Branson]

20.2%    [-2.1] National Coalition Party
19.4%    [-2.0] Social Democratic Party
18.7% [+14.6] True Finns
17.4%    [-5.7] Centre Party
  8.3%    [-0.5] Left Alliance
  6.3%    [-2.1] Green League
  4.3%    [-0.6] Christian Democrats
  3.5%    [-1.1] Swedish People's Party
  2.0%   [+0.2] Others

Hmm, there's only one real winner ...

[Tender Branson]

If I'm understanding this right, this is the early vote? Or maybe that part of it that's already counted?

Too lazy to recalculate to percentages, the site gives total votes and what they'd mean in seats, so I'll just go with seats:
KOK 44, SDP 44, PS 38, KESK 36, VAS 14, Greens 9, KD 6, Swedes 8 (but fewer votes than KD).

Don't know really either if it's an Exit Poll or the already counted vote (which is already about 40%).

[Tender Branson]

Campaigning against the Greek/Ireland/Portugal bailouts it seems was a real boost for the True Finns.

[Tender Branson]

Looking at the people who were elected as representatives in Finland today, I just saw that they are much younger and in the case of women - hotter - than their Austrian counterparts ...

[Tender Branson]

More votes now counted and the margin is getting smaller:

19.8% National Coalition Party
19.3% Social Democratic Party
18.7% True Finns
17.9% Centre Party

[Tender Branson]

If I'm understanding this right, this is the early vote? Or maybe that part of it that's already counted?

DerStandard.at writes that it was indeed the result of the advance vote that was shown on 7pm.

The advance vote was about 1/3 of all voters.

Now the count is at about 42% and the True Finns remain stable.

[Tender Branson]

44% in:

19.2% National Coalition Party
19.0% Social Democratic Party
18.7% True Finns
18.5% Centre Party

This is getting interesting ...

[Tender Branson]

True Finns are now 2nd:

274.678 votes - Centre Party
273.314 votes - True Finns
271.691 votes - Social Democratic Party
269.570 votes - National Coalition Party

[Tender Branson]

True Finns are now 2nd:

And now they are first ...

[Tender Branson]

Is there a place when you get the results updated live ?

http://192.49.229.35/E2011/e/tulos/tulos_kokomaa.html

[Tender Branson]

Could it be that the True Finns end up as the biggest party, but 3rd when it comes to seats ?

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Strache has a couple new friends in the North ...

Let's see what he has to say tomorrow on their victory.

[Tender Branson]

Updated seat projection:

National Coalition Party (42 seats)
True Finns (41 seats)
Social Democratic Party (41 seats)
Centre Party (36 seats)

[Tender Branson]

First vote projection:

19.8% True Finns
19.8% National Coalition Party
18.5% Social Democratic Party
16.4% Centre Party

[Tender Branson]

Tender, your link doesn't give the % reporting...

Check this for reporting %:

http://192.49.229.35/E2011/grtulos/grtulos_en.html

[Tender Branson]

This election can show need for electoral reform in Finland - 4th party is getting most seats. A coalition can have a serious problem of legitimacy. I think that we can have a Rainbow Shift Coalition (SDP-Centre-Swedish-Greens-Left/Christian Democrats).

No, National Coalition Party is projected now to win the most votes and the most seats.

The Social Democrats will be third in the votes, but second with the seats.

[Tender Branson]

Most of Finland is now counted except Helsinki and suburbs, which is strongly NCP.

[Tender Branson]

It looks like the Social Democrats will also overtake the True Finns when the final precints are in, thus making the seat ranking correct for each party.

[Tender Branson]

Helsinki is now 73% counted and NCP leads with 27% there. Social Dems have 18%, the Greens 16% and the True Finns only 13%, with the Left 10%.

Uusimaa is 64% counted and the NCP leads with 27%, Social Dems 20%, True Finns 19%.

All other regions are already completed with more than 95%, so the Social Democrats will almost 100% be ahead of the True Finns Finland-wide.

[Tender Branson]

The Social Democrats have just overtaken the True Finns again (and it will remain this way) ...