This is actually very similar to the midterm generic ballot, but we do not know how this translates to swing states. Rs won the generic ballot by 2.8 in the midterms (1.6 once adjusting for uncontested races), but lost MI, and would've probably lost PA too without Fitzpatrick and Doyle's overperformances.
They would also only win AZ/WI by 2 and NV by about 3 (NV is probably also skewed by Amodei's overperformance, probably goes to <1 without). This would be quite precarious as if this were an electoral college map they were only 1 of AZ/WI from losing even with a 3 point popular vote lead.
RS haven't learned yet about WI, AZ and NV Evers, Hobbs, CCM won so no it does not translate into R wins
Lake was a horrible candidate and Evers/CCM were slightly boosted by incumbency. Governor races, especially with incumbents, often still defy partisanship of the state (ie Laura Kelly, Phil Scott). Also it seems like Republican Senator candidates were in general punished compared to their house counterparts due to Dobbs (and the fact that the Senate votes on Supreme Court nominees). The house is probably a better baseline, though imperfect because of uncontested races/some candidate specific ones (ie Fitzpatrick).
