Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[BBD]

Any chance for an upset by Tippins, Hill, or Williams?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any chance for an upset by Tippins, Hill, or Williams?

If Cagle is forced into a runoff, which is iffy, it will probably be with Kemp, but IMO there's a small chance it could be with Hill.  The others have no chance.

FWIW, Tippins is the only one of the R candidates whose commercials have seemed reasonably sane.

[Progressive Pessimist]

GOP Georgia governor candidate bringing 'Deportation Bus Tour' to state's sanctuary cities

I'm embarrassed to admit that this guy is my current State Senator.

What a d*ck!

[Adam Griffin]

Well, it's getting nasty:

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FWIW, there has been serious questioning about these figures going all the way back to 2014-15 within Democratic circles here. I'm not going to bother with repeating this hearsay and that, but according to some of the data and a lot of what I heard in the past, this isn't inherently an unfair or unfounded attack...but nevertheless a pretty weak one.

[Adam Griffin]

Update: as of Tuesday, 204,968 AIP/ABM ballots have been cast or requested (via mail) in Georgia.

Big jump in turnout, favoring the GOP (over 55% of ballots cast today).

Votes	%	Party
105387	51.41	Republican
94452	46.08	Democratic
5129	2.50	Non-Partisan/Other

Percentage of '14 DEM Primary (353,103): 26.7%
Percentage of '14 GOP Primary (617,876): 17.1%


And comparisons to previous primary composition:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

GOP Georgia governor candidate bringing 'Deportation Bus Tour' to state's sanctuary cities

I'm embarrassed to admit that this guy is my current State Senator.

YouTube has taken down this ad for violating their hate speech policy.

[KingSweden]

GOP Georgia governor candidate bringing 'Deportation Bus Tour' to state's sanctuary cities

I'm embarrassed to admit that this guy is my current State Senator.

YouTube has taken down this ad for violating their hate speech policy.

That’s an in-kind contribution to his campaign, more or less

[Rookie Yinzer]

GOP Georgia governor candidate bringing 'Deportation Bus Tour' to state's sanctuary cities

I'm embarrassed to admit that this guy is my current State Senator.

YouTube has taken down this ad for violating their hate speech policy.

Good. The races these Republicans are running are so bitter, nasty, and hateful. I'm so sick of seeing that Cagle commercial that talks about MS-13. What's worse is that there are swaths of people who will eat that crap up. Even a GOP Secretary of State candidate had to slip some BS about illegal immigration into his commercial (but nothing about protecting the integrity of our vote )

[GeorgiaModerate]

GOP Georgia governor candidate bringing 'Deportation Bus Tour' to state's sanctuary cities

I'm embarrassed to admit that this guy is my current State Senator.

YouTube has taken down this ad for violating their hate speech policy.

Good. The races these Republicans are running are so bitter, nasty, and hateful. I'm so sick of seeing that Cagle commercial that talks about MS-13. What's worse is that there are swaths of people who will eat that crap up. Even a GOP Secretary of State candidate had to slip some BS about illegal immigration into his commercial (but nothing about protecting the integrity of our vote )

Speaking of SoS commercials, I saw Barrow's on TV last night.  It was quite good, and did mention protecting our election systems.

[Adam Griffin]

Update: as of Wednesday, 234,825 AIP/ABM ballots have been cast or requested (via mail) in Georgia.

Another big day for the GOP (57% of ballots cast/requested today were GOP; 41% Democratic).

Votes	%	Party
122437	52.14	Republican
106819	45.49	Democratic
5569	2.37	Non-Partisan/Other

Percentage of '14 DEM Primary (353,103): 30.3%
Percentage of '14 GOP Primary (617,876): 19.8%


And comparisons to previous primary composition:

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[Rookie Yinzer]

Well looks like the Republicans were the ones waiting for additional early voting locations to open.

Has it been mentioned what the total number of ballots cast were during 2014 Primary early voting?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Well, it's getting nasty:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

FWIW, there has been serious questioning about these figures going all the way back to 2014-15 within Democratic circles here. I'm not going to bother with repeating this hearsay and that, but according to some of the data and a lot of what I heard in the past, this isn't inherently an unfair or unfounded attack...but nevertheless a pretty weak one.

Yeah the questioning probably has some basis. I sh1t you not, people from Abrams’ New Georgia Project were on my campus at Valdosta State registering voters. They got everyone at my job in the library to fill out their registration forms... and we were all already registered to vote, and told them so.

[RogueBeaver]

Bernie endorses Abrams.

[Rookie Yinzer]

...and Bernie delivers the death blow to those trying to parrot the narrative that Abrams is a Republican behind closed doors. LOL.

I just got into an argument last night with a Bernie bro that swore Abrams was a corporate Democrat, and Evans was the real progressive. (But at the same time says Evans was more electable, and Abrams was too “far left”, so.... )

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

...and Bernie delivers the death blow to those trying to parrot the narrative that Abrams is a Republican behind closed doors. LOL.

I just got into an argument last night with a Bernie bro that swore Abrams was a corporate Democrat, and Evans was the real progressive. (But at the same time says Evans was more electable, and Abrams was too “far left”, so.... )

They both are basically the same amount of leftwing, lol. Their rhetoric is just different. And I guess Abrams prioritizes early education over college education, whereas Evans does the opposite. Otherwise, not much of a difference.

[YE]

I think this is the first time I'm breaking with Bernie over an endorsement given I've been tilting towards Evans this entire time.

With that said, I'm not really thrilled about either candidate here. Broadly speaking, I'm not a fan of the whole only appeal to your base while screwing over the so called center, largely because it leads to the polarization we see today, although admittedly in a state like GA it might actually make more sense. Abrams doesn't seem to be getting much establishment support despite recently being minority leader but based on the stuff RFKFan has posted here, Evans doesn't exactly seem like a great candidate either.

This also is a sign that Bernie in 2020 will make more of a play to the south black vote than Bernie in 2016.

[Rookie Yinzer]

...and Bernie delivers the death blow to those trying to parrot the narrative that Abrams is a Republican behind closed doors. LOL.

I just got into an argument last night with a Bernie bro that swore Abrams was a corporate Democrat, and Evans was the real progressive. (But at the same time says Evans was more electable, and Abrams was too “far left”, so.... )

They both are basically the same amount of leftwing, lol. Their rhetoric is just different. And I guess Abrams prioritizes early education over college education, whereas Evans does the opposite. Otherwise, not much of a difference.

I agree. However, Evans has no choice but to split hairs at this point because it appears she’s far behind. On the debate she asked Abrams why she declined to endorse Keisha Bottoms for ATL Mayor. With that question, she got Abrams to admit that Bottoms is supporting Evans (weird why it isn’t public yet) and that she didn’t stand with progressives when they needed her. One of Evans’ people was on Twitter saying Abrams almost let a Republican become mayor of Atlanta because of her own ego. LOL.

She also grilled Abrams on cutting early voting and sponsoring a GOP gerrymandering effort.

Here’s the debate: https://youtu.be/V7Ix7iF1UEM

Abrams doesn't seem to be getting much establishment support despite recently being minority leader but based on the stuff RFKFan has posted here, Evans doesn't exactly seem like a great candidate either.

The word on the curb is that Abrams is abrasive and not personable at all. Even she admitted in a recent interview that she wished she had done more to build relationships at the Capitol. The only major endorsement she has from her colleagues is Carolyn Hugley, who people view as her water carrier, which is why she was passed over for the Minority Leader position despite being Abrams’ hand picked successor.

The black legislators backing Evans claim that Abrams threw the Democratic caucus under the bus, making deals that would pad her resume for future runs for office. There have also been accusations that she benefited monetarily from some program she sponsored with the GOP but I haven’t seen concrete proof and Abrams vehemently denies it.

Either way I’m still backing Abrams. Even the recent polling from SurveyUSA shows Abrams getting higher numbers with blacks, self-identified Democrats, and self-identified Liberals. If they’re not fired up we aren’t winning a damn thing here.

ETA: Evans releases final ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGDXPtPtVbE

Evans sends out internal polls to supporters, it has her behind Abrams 41-33, and her trouncing Abrams with white voters by 30 points. Obvious grain of salt needed.

https://cmgpremajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/evansinternal.pdf

FOX5/OpinionSavvy releases a poll, I rounded everything:

GOP:
Cagle- 31%
Kemp- 20%
Hill- 14%
Tippins- 12%
Williams- 5%

Democrats:
Abrams- 58%
Evans- 19%

http://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/new-fox-5-poll-cagle-abrams-leading-in-georgia-primaries-for-governor

[OneJ]

Is it just me that thinks that Evans internal looks kinda fishy? How does Evans has a 30 point lead among white voters and slightly winning among those under $40,000 while losing to Abrams with black voters by a slightly larger (33) margin and losing $40,000-$100,000 and $100,000+ groups?

[Lamda]

I realy wanted Teresa Tomlinson to run but you can't always get what you want so go Abrams!

[Rookie Yinzer]

I realy wanted Teresa Tomlinson to run but you can't always get what you want so go Abrams!

She’s all but confirmed she is challenging David Perdue in 2020. Can’t wait to canvass for her!

[Adam Griffin]

Is it just me that thinks that Evans internal looks kinda fishy? How does Evans has a 30 point lead among white voters and slightly winning among those under $40,000 while losing to Abrams with black voters by a slightly larger (33) margin and losing $40,000-$100,000 and $100,000+ groups?

It's possibly accurate, but yes, it looks a tad off - though maybe not as much as it seems. Presumably income in this situation is personal income and not household income (I've always wondered if every poll uses the same metric as the national exit polls, or does it vary depending on the poll?).

GA has one of the biggest discrepancies in median household income along racial lines of any state. The 2009 data is particularly stark: $55k for whites versus $32k for blacks.

However, in a Democratic primary, I'd imagine those numbers are less skewed. ATL is the Black Mecca and I'm sure there's a relatively huge percentage of likely black voters who fall into the >$40k income bracket, so it's not unrealistic to think Abrams would do well here.

As far as Evans winning the <$40k vote, it makes some sense if you look at the two campaigns' ad spending and assume that lower-income voters are probably more likely to base their vote off of paid media than those in the upper income categories, and that lower-income voters may be a larger share of rural GA than the state as a whole.

But yeah, the margins in that poll do seem unrealistic; the overall leans, however, aren't as crazy as they might seem.

[Adam Griffin]

Also, the Evans internal has black voters weighted at 53% of the electorate and whites at 39%. Either they know something that we don't, or lol...

[Adam Griffin]

Update: as of Thursday, 273,839 AIP/ABM ballots have been cast or requested (via mail) in Georgia.

The GOP composition of today's voters dropped a bit compared to yesterday (55% of ballots cast/requested today were GOP; 44% Democratic).

Votes	%	Party
143838	52.53	Republican
123950	45.26	Democratic
6051	2.21	Non-Partisan/Other

Percentage of '14 DEM Primary (353,103): 35.1%
Percentage of '14 GOP Primary (617,876): 23.3%


And comparisons to previous primary composition:

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[Oryxslayer]

Also, the Evans internal has black voters weighted at 53% of the electorate and whites at 39%. Either they know something that we don't, or lol...

We are laughing right now, but the data on the ground suggests Clinton voters in the metro are picking Dem ballots. I doubt these people, who formerly voted Republican, are going to be voting for Abrams. Add this to the other white groups voting dem - old school white dems who would never vote for an AA, and urban progressives who like college policies, and a Evans lead of 30% isn't too out there.

[Buzz]

Will be voting for Brian Kemp!