Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

JAHN BARRA is running for Secretary of State! I can already see the campaign ads:

"I'm Jahn Barra and long before I was born, my granddaddy used this lil' Smith and Wesson here to help stahp a literacy test"

IT'S HERE:

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I am not sure what economic opportunity has to do with a SoS race but glad to see he wants to expand the right to vote.

[Adam Griffin]

Also, the Evans internal has black voters weighted at 53% of the electorate and whites at 39%. Either they know something that we don't, or lol...

We are laughing right now, but the data on the ground suggests Clinton voters in the metro are picking Dem ballots. I doubt these people, who formerly voted Republican, are going to be voting for Abrams. Add this to the other white groups voting dem - old school white dems who would never vote for an AA, and urban progressives who like college policies, and a Evans lead of 30% isn't too out there.

If you scan the past few pages for my comments, you'll see that I've maintained for months that there's a huge likelihood that there could be a non-black surge of voters fueled predominantly by metro ATL suburbrons that'd cancel out any meaningful gains in black vote. However, 53% of the electorate being black would be very low and would imply that not only did Abrams have no effect on the electorate, but that she actually hurt herself by campaigning.

I am skeptical, however, of any massive number of reliable GOP voters-turned-Democrats pouring into the contest. I think the vast majority of defectors will still likely vote in the GOP primary (since in many of the trending metro counties, this has been the de-facto general election and primary habits are hard to break). Where they'll really show their new colors is in the general election. In another cycle or two, the dynamic will flip (i.e. Democratic primary will become de-facto GE in places like Gwinnett and Cobb) and then those types will be pulling Dem primary ballots like crazy.

[Bacon King]

I am not sure what economic opportunity has to do with a SoS race

idk what Barrow means by "economic opportunity" exactly but the Secretary of State office does have a fairly prominent oversight role over the state economy so it's definitely relevant to the job

The GA SoS is responsible for regulating all businesses, managing all sorts of different professional licensing programs, regulating Georgia's securities and investments markets, and they're also charged with enforcing a lot of consumer protection stuff

[Bacon King]

Also I've already said this to Adam but based on what I'm seeing on the ground expect to see big league democratic primary turnout among the Asian communities in Gwinnett/Fulton

(I'm working for a State Senate candidate with an uncontested primary but we've had joint event with several 7th district candidates and at least three primary candidates are actively targeting the Korean-American community in Duluth (and to a lesser extent the Vietnamese-American community around Lawrenceville).

Also anecdotally my Hmong friends are all suddenly getting extremely political on social media to but I don't know how noticeable that trend will be because the Gwinnett portion of their community is incredibly spread out these days - unlike for example the Barrow County portion of the Hmong community; here in Auburn they still have an active council of elders that informally governs the community (idk what the formal name for it is but they're really cool and I would explain more but this is already too much of a tangent as it is)

[Rookie Yinzer]

GOP debate: https://youtu.be/RnqLKOdqYdI

Loved when Tippins said he got in the race because he saw a guy that's been in office 10 years willing to say anything to get elected, another guy in office 16 years and given away 7 million social security numbers, and another guy after 28 years is completely bought and paid for.

LOL at the accuracy.

[Adam Griffin]

Update: as of Friday, 340,255 AIP/ABM ballots have been cast or requested (via mail) in Georgia.

While there might be another half day's worth to report tomorrow (I can't remember if the SoS daily reports are through noon or if that is something proprietary to the voter file software I use elsewhere) and any returned ballots in the mail, the early vote is over.

Bigger day for Democrats, who pulled 50% of today's ballots (compared to the GOP's 48%). While not a huge difference, because of the sheer # of votes cast today (over 65k), this was enough to drop the GOP's margin in early voting from 7.3 points to 5.7 points.

Votes	%	Party
176346	51.82	Republican
157020	46.14	Democratic
6889	2.02	Non-Partisan/Other

Percentage of '14 DEM Primary (353,103): 44.5%
Percentage of '14 GOP Primary (617,876): 28.5%


And comparisons to previous primary composition:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

GOP debate: https://youtu.be/RnqLKOdqYdI

Loved when Tippins said he got in the race because he saw a guy that's been in office 10 years willing to say anything to get elected, another guy in office 16 years and given away 7 million social security numbers, and another guy after 28 years is completely bought and paid for.

LOL at the accuracy.

Hahaha his question. He just decided to break the rules and just sh!t on everyone around him.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Received two emails from each Stacey today.

Abrams is asking me to come volunteer to GOTV with locations in Albany, Atlanta, Augusta, Athens, Brunswick, Columbus, Decatur, Dublin, East Point, Fort Valley, Jonesboro, LaGrange, Lawrenceville, Macon, McDonough, Milledgeville, Norcross, Savannah, Statesboro, and Warner Robbins.

Evans is telling me the attacks against her are Republican smears because she's the better candidate and something something Abrams cut HOPE something.

Yeah, only one candidate is serious about turning Georgia blue.

[Virginiá]

Griffin - what do you think the final early vote shares are going to be (once ED vote is factored in)? The early vote numbers look much closer than past primaries, but I'm wondering if we should expect the Republican share to balloon in size once all is said and done, so that it looks more like past elections?

Or is the Democratic share of GA expanding in a notable way?

[libertpaulian]

Received two emails from each Stacey today.

Abrams is asking me to come volunteer to GOTV with locations in Albany, Atlanta, Augusta, Athens, Brunswick, Columbus, Decatur, Dublin, East Point, Fort Valley, Jonesboro, LaGrange, Lawrenceville, Macon, McDonough, Milledgeville, Norcross, Savannah, Statesboro, and Warner Robbins.

Evans is telling me the attacks against her are Republican smears because she's the better candidate and something something Abrams cut HOPE something.

Yeah, only one candidate is serious about turning Georgia blue.

Abrams actually conveys energy and passion.  Evans, on the other hand, barely acts like she even exists on the political front.

[Politician]

Evans is the female Jon Ossoff. Abrams is electable.

[Young Conservative]

Evans is the female Jon Ossoff. Abrams is electable.

The first part is true.
The second part makes me skeptical.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Evans is the female Jon Ossoff. Abrams is electable.

The first part is true.
The second part makes me skeptical.

Abrams is "electable" in the sense that she has an actual chance of winning... even if it is only a 10% chance.

I think Abrams ends up losing by about 7, but she is also the only dem candidate I can see winning this race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Evans is the female Jon Ossoff. Abrams is electable.

The first part is true.
The second part makes me skeptical.

Abrams is "electable" in the sense that she has an actual chance of winning... even if it is only a 10% chance.

I think Abrams ends up losing by about 7, but she is also the only dem candidate I can see winning this race.

I'm inclined to agree with this.  Evans would do reasonably well, but I have a hard time seeing her getting that last couple of percent to 50 -- i.e., she'd be in Ossoff territory.  Abrams has a lower floor but a higher ceiling.  I think the most likely outcome is that she'd lose by 7-10 points, but there's some possibility of a breakthrough that would let her eke out a narrow win.

[Adam Griffin]

Griffin - what do you think the final early vote shares are going to be (once ED vote is factored in)? The early vote numbers look much closer than past primaries, but I'm wondering if we should expect the Republican share to balloon in size once all is said and done, so that it looks more like past elections?

Or is the Democratic share of GA expanding in a notable way?

Based on my gut, 57/43. GA Democrats have tended to increasingly cannabilize their ED vote via early voting, but this looks too far removed from the usual trends to be purely that. While I can't track down the specific statewide figures, I did look at a few key counties' early votes (as well as some randos) in 2014 and the difference between EV and ED in the primary was relatively miniscule (a few points in the margins).

Contrary to what any campaign or candidate may say, I believe the vast bulk of any improvement Georgia Democrats might enjoy this cycle will be organic and not reliant on any campaign's efforts. If Evans' internal did turn out to be right as far as the size of the black electorate, then one has to ask who the hell was responsible for the surge of all of these non-black voters comprising damn near 100% of the Democratic gains relative to 2014 (and of course the answer will be "Donald Trump" rather than "Stacey Abrams" or "Stacey Evans").

[Skill and Chance]

Evans is the female Jon Ossoff. Abrams is electable.

The first part is true.
The second part makes me skeptical.

Abrams is "electable" in the sense that she has an actual chance of winning... even if it is only a 10% chance.

I think Abrams ends up losing by about 7, but she is also the only dem candidate I can see winning this race.

I'm inclined to agree with this.  Evans would do reasonably well, but I have a hard time seeing her getting that last couple of percent to 50 -- i.e., she'd be in Ossoff territory.  Abrams has a lower floor but a higher ceiling.  I think the most likely outcome is that she'd lose by 7-10 points, but there's some possibility of a breakthrough that would let her eke out a narrow win.

I also increasingly agree with this.

[Adam Griffin]

Since the DAMN SOS doesn't have one statewide absentee file available for 2014 and since I can't find anything to properly merge 159 spreadsheets, I haven't went through the data between the two cycles to compare statewide.

But...here's a teaser in early votes:

2014-Gwinnett
Total Votes: 8019

Ballot	Votes	%
GOP	5432	67.7
DEM	1983	24.8
NP	604	7.5

2018-Gwinnett
Total Votes: 16538

Ballot	Votes	%
DEM	9281	56.1
GOP	6585	39.8
NP	672	4.1

[Adam Griffin]

Cobb only shifted 45 points to the Democrats compared to early voting 4 years ago, and not 60 points like Gwinnett - SAD!

2014-Cobb
Total Votes: 13373

Ballot	Votes	%
GOP	10414	77.8
DEM	2905	21.7
NP	53	0.5

2018-Cobb
Total Votes: 16018

Ballot	Votes	%
GOP	8829	55.1
DEM	7081	44.2
NP	672	4.1

[GeorgiaModerate]

Since the DAMN SOS doesn't have one statewide absentee file available for 2014 and since I can't find anything to properly merge 159 spreadsheets, I haven't went through the data between the two cycles to compare statewide.

But...here's a teaser in early votes:

2014-Gwinnett
Total Votes: 8019

Ballot	Votes	%
GOP	5432	67.7
DEM	1983	24.8
NP	604	7.5

2018-Gwinnett
Total Votes: 16538

Ballot	Votes	%
DEM	9281	56.1
GOP	6585	39.8
NP	672	4.1

That's an insane increase for the Democrats.

[Adam Griffin]

Comparing the two counties, it's looking like Gwinnett is producing a lot of first-time primary voters for the Democrats, while Cobb is generating a lot of crossovers from the GOP primary to the DEM primary. Look at those totals; Cobb's total only increased by about one-third (compared to Gwinnett's doubling) and yet Cobb has swung three-quarters as much as Gwinnett.

The raw GOP total still managed to increase in Gwinnett, but it has declined quite a bit in Cobb. Or it could just be disparate groupings in each county voting early versus voting on election day...

[libertpaulian]

Since the DAMN SOS doesn't have one statewide absentee file available for 2014 and since I can't find anything to properly merge 159 spreadsheets, I haven't went through the data between the two cycles to compare statewide.

But...here's a teaser in early votes:

2014-Gwinnett
Total Votes: 8019

Ballot	Votes	%
GOP	5432	67.7
DEM	1983	24.8
NP	604	7.5

2018-Gwinnett
Total Votes: 16538

Ballot	Votes	%
DEM	9281	56.1
GOP	6585	39.8
NP	672	4.1

Holy ish...Gwinnett is the new Fairfax.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Since the DAMN SOS doesn't have one statewide absentee file available for 2014 and since I can't find anything to properly merge 159 spreadsheets, I haven't went through the data between the two cycles to compare statewide.

But...here's a teaser in early votes:

2014-Gwinnett
Total Votes: 8019

Ballot	Votes	%
GOP	5432	67.7
DEM	1983	24.8
NP	604	7.5

2018-Gwinnett
Total Votes: 16538

Ballot	Votes	%
DEM	9281	56.1
GOP	6585	39.8
NP	672	4.1

Holy ish...Gwinnett is the new Fairfax.

Yeah, I'm starting to think that GA-7 is realistically in play this fall.

[Adam Griffin]

This is happening metro-wide:

Hall 2014: 89.1 R, 10.2 D
Hall 2018: 77.4 R, 21.3 D

Fayette 2014: 79.6 R, 20.1 D
Fayette 2018: 61.1 R, 38.4 D

Even in hostile counties (such as my own) outside the ATL media market, there's movement:

Whitfield 2014: 83.3 R, 14.9 D
Whitfield 2018: 77.1 R, 21.2 D

[GlobeSoc]

latinos in gwinnett will spam the polls and make it a safe D county in the GOV race this november.